Silver Jumps 1.9% While Gold Holds Flat as the 10-Year Yield Spikes to a 16-Month High
Live ticker intelligence
Commodities Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,483 | -0.52% | +36.66% | 4,506 | 4,512 | 4,455 | 46,970 |
| SILVER | 75.47 | +0.86% | +128.84% | 74.83 | 75.87 | 73.39 | 10,375 |
| BRENT | 109.36 | -1.73% | +67.27% | 111.28 | 111.50 | 108.50 | 6,617 |
| WTI | 102.48 | -4.91% | +63.81% | 107.77 | 104.45 | 101.64 | 36,212 |
| COPPER | 6.23 | +1.10% | +34.93% | 6.16 | 6.24 | 6.15 | 8,948 |
| LITHIUM | 81.78 | -1.51% | +113.92% | 83.03 | 82.43 | 80.58 | 452,952 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +61.83% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,203 | -0.54% | +14.25% | 1,210 | 1,212 | 1,201 | 15,433 |
| CORN | 472.00 | -0.68% | +3.85% | 475.25 | 477.00 | 471.00 | 25,129 |
| WHEAT | 663.75 | -0.52% | +21.57% | 667.25 | 671.25 | 660.50 | 11,657 |
| COFFEE | 259.00 | -4.13% | -29.87% | 270.15 | 262.00 | 258.25 | 803 |
| SUGAR | 14.95 | -0.40% | -13.78% | 15.01 | 15.10 | 14.92 | 5,732 |
| COCOA | 3,974 | +1.71% | -63.45% | 3,907 | 4,013 | 3,896 | 619 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 157.50 | -1.75% | -40.18% | 160.30 | 161.85 | 153.60 | — |
| COTTON | 81.79 | -2.28% | +23.70% | 83.70 | 87.36 | 84.37 | 16,912 |
| BEEF | 247.18 | -2.45% | +15.95% | 253.38 | 248.35 | 246.28 | 16,999 |
| CATTLE | 363.85 | -1.34% | +22.92% | 368.80 | 364.13 | 357.23 | 8,600 |
| USD/BRL | 5.04 | -0.14% | -10.69% | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.03 | — |
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Gold and silver price today diverged Tuesday: silver surged 1.90% to $75.03 while gold held flat at $4,482.79. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to a 16-month high near 4.7%, pinning non-yielding gold while silver’s industrial leverage and an Iran-deal headline lifted it.
The Big Three
Silver closed Tuesday at $75.03 (+1.90%, +$1.40), tagging a $75.46 high. Gold closed at $4,482.79 (+0.02%), flat after a $4,453–$4,509 range. The split is the story: silver’s higher beta let it rally while gold stayed pinned by yields. The gold/silver ratio compressed.
The macro driver was rates. The 10-year yield spiked to a 16-month high near 4.7% and the 30-year to an 18-year high near 5.2% on the inflationary outlook — elevated oil, April CPI 3.8%, hot PPI. Restrictive rates lift the opportunity cost of non-yielding bullion, capping gold. Markets now price a ~40% chance of a 2026 hike, not a cut.
Silver’s MACD histogram turned positive at +0.85 with the line crossing above signal — the first bullish momentum since the May 15 Warsh shock. Gold’s MACD stayed negative at −15.05 but narrowing. Silver RSI 45.59, gold RSI 36.89 near oversold. Trump’s suspension of an Iran strike eased the inflation panic.
02 Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver close | $75.03 | +1.90% | High beta outperforms |
| Gold close | $4,482.79 | +0.02% | Flat, capped by yields |
| Silver range | $73.13 – $75.46 | $2.33 | Closed near high |
| Gold range | $4,453 – $4,509 | $56 | Tight, mid-range close |
| Silver MACD hist | +0.85 | Bullish cross | Line above signal |
| Gold MACD hist | −15.05 | Narrowing | Still bearish |
| 10Y / 30Y yield | ~4.7% / ~5.2% | Multi-year highs | Inflationary outlook |
03 Why They Diverged
External Trigger: Yields at a 16-month high cap gold
The yield spike hardened as the inflationary outlook firmed: oil elevated, April CPI 3.8%, hot PPI, robust jobs data. Higher yields lift the cost of holding non-yielding gold, which is why it stayed pinned flat below its cloud.
Why Silver Outperformed: Two demand engines
Silver runs on industrial and monetary demand and carries a 1.5–2x beta to gold. After falling roughly 10x harder than gold in the May 15 Warsh shock, it had more room to bounce. The Iran-strike suspension eased the inflation panic, and the higher-beta metal captured the relief.
§04 · Market Commentary
The divergence is the cleanest signal of the week. Gold is hostage to the rate path: with the 10-year at a 16-month high and a 2026 cut all but ruled out, non-yielding bullion has no catalyst until inflation or yields turn. Gold flat at $4,483 is a holding pattern below the cloud, not a base. The June FOMC dot plot, potentially the first under Warsh, is the next pivot.
Silver tells a more constructive near-term story. The MACD turned bullish, RSI recovered toward neutral, and the bounce off the May 15 capitulation has follow-through. But silver remains below its cloud and the $77.36 Kijun, so it is a bounce until those clear. Both metals’ structural floors — central-bank gold buying and silver’s supply deficit — are intact beneath the rate-driven pullback.
05 Technical Snapshot
Gold closed at $4,482.79 below the cloud, the Kijun at $4,620 the resistance and the cloud bottom at $4,359 the floor. RSI 36.89 near oversold, MACD −15.05 narrowing. Silver closed at $75.03 below its cloud, the 20-DMA at $75.52 and 50-DMA at $76.30 just overhead and the $77.36 Kijun the gate. Silver RSI 45.59 recovering, MACD +0.85 with a fresh bullish cross.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Verdict
Tuesday’s metals tape split: silver +1.90% to $75.03 on its industrial leverage and an Iran-deal headline, gold flat at $4,482.79 pinned by the 10-year yield at a 16-month high near 4.7%. Silver’s MACD turned bullish, gold’s stayed negative but narrowing. Both remain below their clouds — silver’s move is a bounce until the $77.36 Kijun clears, gold a holding pattern until yields fade. The June FOMC dot plot is the next macro pivot.
Related: The May 15 Warsh metals shock · Brazil yields and the real · Mexico and the yield backdrop.
Gate today: silver $77.36 Kijun, gold $4,620 cloud. Yields fade = relief; yields hold = capped.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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