Today’s global economy briefing for February 11, 2026 covers flat US retail sales that wrong-footed consensus, China’s slide deeper into disinflation, and Argentina’s inflation re-acceleration.
Meanwhile, Japan’s machine tool orders surged, France’s unemployment climbed, and a massive crude oil inventory build rattled energy markets. Here’s what moved markets on Tuesday.
The Big Three
US retail sales flatlined at 0.0% MoM in December — missing the +0.4% consensus — while the retail control group fell −0.1%. The Employment Cost Index cooled to 0.7% QoQ, and the Atlanta Fed slashed its GDPNow estimate to 3.7% from 4.2%.
China’s CPI decelerated sharply to +0.2% YoY in January — half the 0.4% expected — while PPI remained deep in contraction at −1.4% YoY. The deflation overhang refuses to lift despite aggressive stimulus measures.
Argentina’s January CPI accelerated to 2.9% MoM — above the 2.5% consensus — pushing the annual rate to 32.4%. The disinflation narrative that underpinned Milei’s credibility is fraying at the edges.
Dashboard: Key Prints vs Expectations
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Prior | Verdict |
| Retail Sales MoM (Dec) | 0.0% | +0.4% | +0.6% | MISS |
| Core Retail Sales MoM (Dec) | 0.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | MISS |
| Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q4) | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | DOVISH |
| NFIB Small Biz Optimism (Jan) | 99.3 | 99.8 | 99.5 | MISS |
| Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | CUT |
| Unemployment Rate (Q4) | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | MISS |
| Machine Tool Orders YoY | +25.3% | — | +10.9% | STRONG |
| CPI YoY (Jan) | 4.44% | 4.43% | 4.26% | IN LINE |
| CPI MoM (Jan) | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | MISS |
| CPI YoY (Jan) | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.8% | BIG MISS |
| PPI YoY (Jan) | −1.4% | −1.5% | −1.9% | SLIGHT BEAT |
| Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 3.0% | — | 3.3% | IMPROVED |
United States
Consumer stalls; wage growth cools; NFP today
December retail sales flatlined at 0.0% MoM against a +0.4% consensus — a clean miss across the board. Core retail sales (ex-autos) also printed 0.0%, and the retail control group, which feeds directly into GDP, fell −0.1%. Year-over-year growth decelerated sharply to 2.43% from 3.26%. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of global affairs and Latin American financial news.
Meanwhile, the Employment Cost Index cooled to 0.7% QoQ in Q4, undershooting the 0.8% consensus. Both the wages and benefits components printed 0.7%, down from 0.8% prior. This is the slowest pace of labor cost growth since Q1 2024 and will reinforce the Fed’s patience on holding rates.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 99.3, below the 99.8 expected and down from 99.5. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker was revised down to 3.7% from 4.2%, reflecting the softer consumption data. Export prices rose 0.3% MoM, beating the 0.1% consensus, while import prices were flat.
All eyes now shift to today’s delayed January nonfarm payrolls release. Proxy readings — last week’s ADP miss, JOLTS deterioration, and record Challenger cuts — suggest downside risk. The 3-year Treasury auction cleared at 3.518%, well below the prior 3.609%, signalling demand for duration.
Verdict
The consumer is fading. Retail sales, ECI, and NFIB all missed in the same session — a trifecta that shifts the narrative from “resilient economy” to “decelerating demand.” The ECI print is particularly Fed-relevant: slower wage growth removes a key objection to rate cuts. Today’s NFP and Thursday’s CPI will determine whether this is a soft patch or something structural.
Europe
French unemployment rises; bond auctions mixed
French Q4 unemployment rose to 7.9%, above the 7.8% consensus and up from 7.7% prior. This marks the second consecutive quarterly increase, adding to evidence that the eurozone’s second-largest economy is losing labour-market momentum alongside Germany’s industrial contraction.
Bond auctions painted a mixed picture. Spain’s 3-month Letras cleared at 1.939%, marginally below the prior 1.954%, reflecting expectations for continued ECB easing. Germany’s 5-year Bobl auction cleared at 2.400%, down from 2.470%, consistent with the broader bid for European duration.
In addition, the UK’s 5-year Gilt auction came in at 4.001%, a notable jump from 3.821% prior. The rise in UK yields sits awkwardly alongside last week’s dovish BoE split, suggesting gilt markets are pricing fiscal risk and sticky services inflation over near-term rate cut expectations.
German Bundesbank board member Balz spoke but offered no material policy guidance. Focus this week shifts to UK and eurozone Q4 GDP prints, which will be decisive for the ECB’s March meeting tone and the BoE’s spring rate-cut timeline.
Verdict
France’s labour market is quietly deteriorating — a development that strengthens the ECB’s dovish hand but also signals demand weakness beyond Germany. The divergence between falling Bund yields and rising Gilt yields is the key cross-market story: eurozone duration is bid, UK fiscal credibility is not. Q4 GDP data later this week will be the catalyst.
Asia-Pacific
China disinflation deepens; Japan capex surges; Korea jobs improve
China’s January CPI decelerated to just +0.2% YoY, half the +0.4% consensus and down sharply from December’s +0.8%. The month-on-month reading also missed at +0.2% versus +0.3% expected. Consumer demand remains anaemic despite months of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
On the brighter side, PPI improved to −1.4% YoY from −1.9%, marginally better than the −1.5% expected. Factory-gate deflation is easing but remains entrenched. The combination of weak consumer prices and slowly improving producer prices suggests margin compression is rotating from factories to retailers.
Japan’s machine tool orders surged +25.3% YoY, more than doubling the prior +10.9% reading. This is the strongest print in over a year, driven by semiconductor equipment demand and auto retooling. It stands in sharp contrast to last week’s dismal household spending data and highlights the widening gap between corporate capex and consumer spending.
South Korea’s unemployment rate fell to 3.0% from 3.3% — the lowest since mid-2024. Australia’s Q4 home loans jumped 10.6%, though investor housing finance cooled to 7.9% from 9.2%. The RBA’s rate hike is filtering through to lending conditions, but housing demand remains resilient.
Verdict
China’s disinflation is the session’s biggest macro signal. CPI halving from 0.8% to 0.2% in one month suggests the stimulus impulse is fading fast — expect pressure on Beijing to accelerate fiscal deployment. Japan’s machine tool surge is a capex bright spot, but the consumer-corporate divergence is unsustainable. The BoJ’s next move depends on which side resolves first.
Latin America
Argentina inflation re-accelerates; Brazil CPI in line
Argentina’s January CPI printed 2.9% MoM, above the 2.5% consensus and up from 2.8% in December. The annual rate climbed to 32.4% versus 31.8% expected. After months of steady deceleration that had bolstered the Milei administration’s credibility, the uptick is an unwelcome signal.
The re-acceleration reflects seasonal pressures from January utility adjustments and education costs, but the direction matters more than the level. Markets had been pricing a continued glide path toward 20% annual inflation by mid-2026. That timeline now looks optimistic.
Brazil’s January IPCA inflation came in essentially in line: +0.33% MoM (matching prior) and +4.44% YoY versus the +4.43% consensus. The annual rate rose from 4.26%, confirming a gradual uptrend. With the Selic at 13.25%, the BCB has limited room to ease — and the real is already pricing that in.
The API weekly crude oil stock report showed a massive 13.4 million barrel build, a dramatic swing from the prior week’s 11.1 million barrel draw. Energy markets will be watching today’s EIA confirmation closely. For commodity-exposed LatAm economies, crude weakness adds to the headwinds.
Verdict
Argentina’s inflation re-acceleration is the headline LatAm risk. One month doesn’t break the trend, but it does break the narrative — and narrative has been carrying the peso’s stability. Brazil’s in-line print keeps the BCB in wait-and-see mode. The crude inventory swing warrants monitoring: a confirmed supply glut would pressure Petrobras and Colombia’s fiscal balance.
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