The Big Three
The Ibovespa surged 1.39% to 187,317.64 (+2,567 points) on Thursday — the first gain in seven sessions — with buyers from the opening tick (O = L at 184,758) in the mirror image of the six-day sell-off where sellers dominated from tick one. The index rallied to 187,921 intraday, reclaiming the Kijun at 187,197 during the session before settling just 121 points above it at 187,318. April closed at −0.08% — the last-day bounce saved the month from a negative close, though the journey from +4.62% (April 14 ATH) to −0.08% tells the real story. The week ended at −1.80%. The YTD at +16.25%. The bounce was broad: Vale recovered after Wednesday’s crash, banks and varejo rallied, siderúrgicas surged. Petrobras fell on oil volatility. Volume at R$28.8 billion — above average.
The dollar crashed 1.00% to R$4.9523 — the lowest in over two years — as the Copom’s 14.50% rate cut paradoxically strengthened the real by confirming the carry-trade differential. The DXY fell 0.79% to 98.078. Banks revised Selic forecasts upward: SulAmérica to 14.00% terminal (from 13.00%), Itaú to 13.25%, Goldman sees upside risk to 13.25%. Higher-for-longer Selic = wider carry differential = stronger real. The dollar’s two-year low at R$4.95 is the month’s defining anchor: through an ATH, a 7% correction, the worst crash of the war, $126 oil, and above-ceiling inflation — the real kept appreciating. The structural bid (14.50% Selic, R$68B inflows, DXY collapse) is the most powerful force in Brazilian markets.
Oil reversed from the $126.41 intraday peak — a four-year high — to close at $114.01 (−3.41%), as the Trump war-escalation panic of Wednesday night failed to sustain. Iran threatened “long and painful” attacks if the U.S. renews aggression, but the market read the rhetoric as posturing rather than escalation. The oil reversal from $126 to $114 in a single session is the kind of exhaustion signal that suggests the energy spike has overshot — though $114 is still dramatically elevated. The S&P 500 rallied 1% on Mag 7 earnings (all four reporting giants beat). The global mood shifted from panic to relief on the last trading day of April.
01 Market Snapshot — April Final
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 187,317.64 | +1.39% (+2,567 pts) |
| April Performance | −0.08% | saved from negative by bounce |
| Week | −1.80% | 3rd losing week |
| YTD | +16.25% | was +21.72% mid-April |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9523 | −1.00% · TWO-YEAR LOW |
| Brent (close) | $114.01 | −3.41% (from $126 peak) |
| Selic | 14.50% | terminal now 13.25–14.00% |
| S&P 500 | +1.00% | Mag 7 earnings beat |
| Kijun Status | 187,197 | close 121 pts above = reclaimed |
02 Session — Buyers From Tick One
Today’s Ibovespa today report covers the session that saved April. The index opened at 184,758 (= session low) and rallied all day to 187,921 — a 3,162-point intraday range with the open at the bottom and the close near the top. This is the exact inverse of the prior six sessions where O = H and selling was relentless. The Kijun at 187,197 — broken by 2,693 points on Wednesday — was reclaimed during Thursday’s session. The close at 187,318 is just 121 points above the Kijun: barely holding, but holding. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
The bounce was driven by three forces: the Copom’s 25bp cut to 14.50% removing the worst-case scenario (hold or hike), oil reversing from $126 to $114, and global risk appetite improving as the S&P 500 rallied 1% on Mag 7 earnings beats. Vale led the recovery after Wednesday’s crash. Banks and varejo rallied broadly. Siderúrgicas surged on Usiminas and Gerdau Q1 numbers. Petrobras fell on oil volatility — the one blue-chip that didn’t participate in the bounce.
03 Dollar — R$4.95, Two-Year Low
From the chart: O:4.9487, H:4.9556, L:4.9487, C:4.9556 (+0.0069, +0.14%). The chart shows Thursday’s close at R$4.9556. CNN Brasil reports the dollar at R$4.9523 on the venda close — the lowest in over two years. RSI at 36.84 (signal: 33.98) remains in oversold territory. The structural downtrend in the dollar is the month’s defining data point: from R$5.03 (mid-April) to R$4.95 while the Ibovespa fell 7% from ATH. The carry trade at 14.50% Selic (terminal now 13.25–14.00% per bank revisions) continues to attract foreign capital. DXY at 98 is the weakest since early 2024.
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:184,758.66, H:187,920.77, L:184,758.66, C:187,317.64 (+2,567.22, +1.39%). A tall green candle with O = L — the most bullish intraday structure since April 14. RSI at 58.79 (signal: 44.99) — the main RSI is declining while the signal is rising, converging toward a potential bullish crossover. MACD at 1,993.92 (signal: 600.26, histogram: −1,393.66) — still deeply negative but the MACD lines are converging rapidly. The 200-day SMA at 160,789.62 sits 16.5% below. Key levels: 190,794 / 190,610 (resistance) → 189,635 → 187,318 (close) → 187,197 (Kijun, barely reclaimed) → 183,794 (next support if Kijun breaks again).
05 April Scorecard
April began with the Ibovespa at 187,465 and ended at 187,318 — a −0.08% loss that masks a 7% round trip. The index hit an ATH of 198,657 on April 14, then corrected 13,907 points over six sessions before Thursday’s 2,567-point bounce saved the month from a formally negative close. The dollar fell from R$5.03 to R$4.95 — the best monthly FX performance of 2026. The Selic went from 14.75% to 14.50%. Oil went from $99 to $114 (via $126). The ceasefire was extended, then undermined, then extended again. The Kijun at 187,197 held by 40 points, broke by 2,693 points, and was reclaimed by 121 points — all within eight sessions. April was the most volatile month since the war began.
06 Looking Ahead
B3 is closed today (Friday, May Day). The next session is Monday, May 4. The market enters May at the Kijun (187,197 ± 121 points) — the pivot that determines whether the correction is over or extends. Oil at $114 and the dollar at R$4.95 are the two variables: if oil drops below $100, the non-oil Ibovespa rallies and the correction ends. If oil holds above $110, the Kijun breaks again and 183,794 comes into view. Earnings season continues: Itaú/Bradesco Q1 on May 5, Petrobras Q1 on May 11. The next Copom is June 17–18.
Key dates: May 1 — May Day (B3 closed). May 4 — next session. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1. May 11 — Petrobras Q1. June 17–18 — next Copom.
07 Verdict
The bounce saved April. The index reclaimed the Kijun. Oil reversed from $126 to $114. The dollar hit a two-year low. The S&P rallied 1%. For the first time in seven sessions, buyers showed up at the open and held through the close. The capitulation on Wednesday — 3,868 points, worst day of the war — may have been the exhaustion event. The bounce from 184,758 to 187,318 on the very next session has the characteristics of a post-capitulation recovery: violent, broad, and driven by the same names (Vale, banks, varejo) that were leading the sell-off.
Bias: Neutral — the Kijun is the pivot, the dollar is the anchor, and May answers everything. The Ibovespa closed April at −0.08%, the dollar at a two-year low, the Selic at 14.50%, oil at $114. The month that began with an ATH and ended at the Kijun was the most volatile since the war — and ended almost exactly where it started. The structural thesis (carry trade, foreign inflows, DXY collapse, net oil exporter) is intact. The momentum thesis (MACD −1,394, six-session sell-off, 7% correction) is damaged. May will resolve which one prevails. The Kijun at 187,197 — barely reclaimed, easily lost — is the line. Hold it and the ATH path reopens. Lose it and 183,794 is the destination. The dollar at R$4.95 says hold. The MACD says test. May begins at the pivot.
Related coverage:
Wednesday crash: Ibovespa Crashes 2% — Worst Session of the War
Kijun test: Ibovespa Tests 187,237 — 40 Points From the Kijun
ATH session: Ibovespa at ATH: The 11-Session Rally
Investing guide: Investing in Brazil 2026: B3, Selic, Real Estate and Risks
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.