Colombia Overtakes Brazil and Peru on Country Risk Indicator
Key Points
—Colombia’s EMBI country-risk premium ended February at 294 basis points after rising 32 points in a single month, vaulting above Brazil (199), Mexico (226), Peru (143) and Chile (95)
—The Observatorio Fiscal de la Pontificia Universidad Javeriana reported May 11 that Colombia is now the riskiest of its four-country LATAM peer group of Brazil, Chile, Peru and Colombia
—Long-dated dollar bond yields have risen above 8% for the Colombian sovereign, with debt-service costs projected to become the second-largest line item in the 2027 budget
Colombia country risk has overtaken Brazil’s for the first time since the 2014 commodity shock, with the EMBI spread ending February at 294 basis points versus 199 for Brazil, 143 for Peru, and 95 for Chile, and the gap widened further through Q1 2026. Long-dated sovereign yields have crossed 8% in dollars, and the Observatorio Fiscal de la Pontificia Universidad Javeriana published a benchmark report on May 11 confirming the country has become the most expensive borrower in its peer group. With Gustavo Petro’s term ending August 7, the May 31 presidential first round will determine whether the spread normalizes or widens further.
The Spread Inversion
The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the Colombian EMBI rose 32 basis points from 262 to 294 in February 2026 alone. Over the same month, Brazil’s EMBI rose from 186 to 199, Mexico’s climbed from 214 to 226, Peru’s stayed in double digits near 143, and Chile and Uruguay anchored the low end at 95 and 77 respectively. By April 30, the regional average had fallen to 262, but the rank order held: Colombia continued to trade as the riskiest of the four major peer economies.
The pattern is a historical inversion. Until 2021, Brazil consistently traded as the highest-risk of the four economies, with Chile and Peru anchoring the low end and Colombia in the intermediate slot. The Observatorio Fiscal’s May 11 report frames the shift in a single sentence: Colombia “pasó a ser percibido como el país más riesgoso del grupo.” The trigger is not a single event but a compounding deterioration in public finances, central-bank credibility, and election uncertainty.
The EMBI Comparison Table
| Country | EMBI Feb 2026 (bps) | EMBI Apr 30 2026 (bps) | Change (bps) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 294 | ~260 | +28 YTD |
| Brazil | 199 | 174 | -25 |
| Mexico | 226 | 204 | -22 |
| Peru | 143 | 126 | -17 |
| Chile | 95 | 83 | -12 |
| Uruguay (benchmark) | 77 | 62 | -15 |
The Fiscal Driver
Public debt has risen from 183 billion dollars in August 2022 to 331 billion in March 2026, a 148 billion dollar increase across 43 months, according to Anif analyst data summarized by El Colombiano. The central-government deficit reached 6.7% of GDP in 2024 and is projected to remain above 6% through 2026, with the Observatorio Fiscal warning that interest payments will become the second-largest budget line item by 2027, behind only education.
Capital formation, the other lens the Observatorio uses to track risk, has been declining as a share of GDP through the Petro term, while Chile and Peru have kept investment-to-GDP ratios stable and Brazil has come up from a low base. Colombia‘s trajectory has run the opposite direction. The Observatorio’s argument is that the two indicators are co-determined: lower investment depresses growth, raises the implicit interest-rate-minus-growth differential, and forces the government to allocate more of its budget to debt service.
The Election Backstop
The Banco de la República held its policy rate unanimously at 11.25% on April 30, after a contentious 100 basis-point hike on March 31 that prompted Finance Minister Germán Ávila to walk out. BBVA’s strategy team on May 5 recommended shorting the Colombian peso through three-month dollar-call options at strike levels of 3,750 and 4,000, citing fiscal slippage and the May 31 first-round election. The peso closed Friday at 3,747.10 per dollar, the highest TRM since March 9, after weakening 3.01% across the week.
Credit-rating context matters here: Colombia lost its investment-grade rating in May 2021 when S&P and Fitch both downgraded, a status the 2025 fiscal-rule suspension further entrenched. The May 31 first round will face off Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico), Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático), and Abelardo de la Espriella (Defenderemos Colombia), among others. A market-friendly outcome would tighten the spread quickly; a continuity outcome would lock in the current premium.
Connected Coverage
The fiscal architecture behind the spread is detailed in our coverage of Colombia government debt hitting 1,238 trillion pesos in February and the 8.2% of GDP 2026 deficit forecast that triggered the original BBVA short-peso call. The currency dimension is covered in our May 5 BBVA peso-short note, and the broader macro architecture sits inside our Colombia Economy 2026 Guide.
What to Watch
- DANE first-quarter 2026 GDP release on May 15, the next macro datapoint
- May 31 presidential first round and any binary market repricing
- Treasury bond-buyback execution by Public Credit Director Javier Cuéllar
- BanRep June 30 rate decision and any peso-defense action
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the EMBI and why does it matter?
The EMBI is JPMorgan’s Emerging Market Bond Index, which measures the yield spread between dollar-denominated sovereign bonds and US Treasuries. A 100 basis-point spread means the borrower pays 1 percentage point more than the US government. Colombia’s 294 bps at end-February 2026 implies a 2.94% extra cost for new dollar borrowing relative to comparable US Treasury maturities.
Why did Colombia overtake Brazil on country risk?
Three converging factors: the 2025 fiscal rule suspension, the 2024 central-government deficit hitting 6.7% of GDP, and falling private investment. Public debt rose from 183 billion dollars in August 2022 to 331 billion in March 2026. Bond yields above 8% on long-dated dollar paper now project debt service into second place in the 2027 budget, behind only education.
How does the election change the outlook?
The May 31 first round is the principal binary event: a right-of-center winner (Paloma Valencia, Abelardo de la Espriella) would likely reset fiscal expectations, while an Iván Cepeda victory under the Pacto Histórico banner would lock in current trajectories. BBVA’s May 5 short-peso recommendation targeted three-month strike levels of 3,750 and 4,000. Credicorp compared the dynamic to the 2022 race when the peso jumped from 3,800 to 5,200.
What does this mean for Colombian companies?
Higher sovereign spreads push up the cost of corporate dollar borrowing roughly one-to-one for senior unsecured paper, raising hurdle rates for capex, inventory, and M&A. Fitch warned in February that Colombian companies face 12 to 18 months of margin pressure from the combination of rates above 11%, the 23.7% minimum-wage increase decreed for 2026, and persistent inflation above target.
Updated: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z