Colombia’s Fertilizer Prices Surge 52% as Hormuz Closure and China Export Ban Squeeze the Food Chain

The war in Iran is 10,000 kilometres from Colombia’s farms. But fertilizer prices don’t care about geography — and a country that imports nine out of every ten bags it applies to its fields is about to find out how expensive that dependence can get.

The Colombia fertilizer crisis is building in real time. Since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early March — through which roughly 45% of globally traded fertilizers transit — international prices have surged 30%. Over the past twelve months, the Bloomberg Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index has risen 52%, from $649.23 to $984.67. Granular urea, the single most imported fertilizer in Colombia, has jumped 78% year-on-year at the US Gulf benchmark, from $380 to $679 per tonne — with nearly half that increase concentrated in just the last four weeks.

Why Colombia Is Especially Vulnerable

Colombia’s dependence on imported fertilizers is among the highest in Latin America. The country imported 2.3 million tonnes in 2025, according to DANE, against annual consumption of 2.4 to 2.5 million tonnes — meaning domestic production covers less than 10% of demand. Fertilizers account for between 12% and 30% of agricultural production costs depending on the crop, according to the Colombian Agricultural Society (SAC). When input prices spike, farmers buy less, fertilise less per hectare, and productivity drops — reducing supply and eventually pushing food prices higher.

The vulnerability has a second dimension: Monómeros, the Venezuelan-owned fertilizer plant in Barranquilla that supplies nearly a third of Colombia’s domestic production, has been operating under US sanctions-related uncertainty for years. If that supply is disrupted simultaneously with an import price shock, the squeeze becomes existential for small farmers.

The China Problem

The Hormuz disruption is compounded by China’s decision in March to suspend fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market — a move that mirrors Beijing’s 2022 response to the Ukraine war but this time hits harder. China represented 18.3% of Colombia’s fertilizer imports in 2025. Javier Díaz, president of trade association Analdex, said the Chinese halt “could have an even more direct impact, being one of the principal origins of fertilizers that Colombia imports.” With Hormuz closed and China offline, Colombia’s two largest supply corridors are simultaneously disrupted.

The Inflation Timeline

SAC president Jorge Bedoya said Colombia currently holds fertilizer inventories sufficient for two to three months — a buffer, but not a solution if the crisis extends. Analdex’s Díaz was more specific: “The impact on food inflation could be felt within four to six months.” That timeline places the price shock squarely in Q3 2026 — after the May 31 presidential election but during the critical period when the new government takes office and sets its economic priorities.

The macro context makes the fertilizer shock particularly dangerous. The Banco de la República has already hiked rates twice by 100bp each to 11.25%, citing core inflation at 6.1% and expectations drifting to 6.4%. Fertilizer-driven food inflation would validate the central bank’s hawkish stance — and further complicate a political environment in which President Petro has called the rate hikes “suicidal” and pulled his finance minister from the board. For Colombian farmers, the arithmetic is simpler: if urea stays above $650 per tonne, the cost of growing food exceeds what many can afford to plant.

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