Mexico Mining Output Jumps 5.5% in February Rebound

Mexico mining is showing the first signs of recovery after 2025’s punishing contraction, but the rebound is uneven — precious metals are still declining while industrial minerals lead the way.

Mexico mining production rose 5.5% month-on-month in February 2026, according to INEGI’s mining and metallurgical industry statistics, marking the strongest monthly rebound since the sector entered a sustained downturn that saw output contract 6.5% across the whole of 2025. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the recovery is driven by base metals and industrial minerals rather than the precious metals that traditionally define Mexico’s mining identity.

Year-on-year, the picture remains mixed. Overall output was essentially flat at negative 0.1%, meaning the monthly jump largely reflects a recovery from a weak January rather than a breakout into sustained growth. The sector is stabilizing, not yet expanding.

Mexico Mining: Who Won and Who Lost in February

Gold extraction fell 1.9% year-on-year, declining from 6,039 kilograms to 5,926 kilograms. Guerrero was hit hardest with a 26.4% drop, followed by Chihuahua at 15.9%.

Silver production slipped 0.7%, though the Estado de Mexico posted a remarkable 250% year-on-year surge in silver output, reaching 12,614 kilograms. Lead fell 3.9% and sulphur declined 2%.

The positive side of the ledger is concentrated in industrial metals. Copper and zinc — both critical to the energy transition, electric vehicles, and infrastructure construction — posted gains supported by elevated global prices. The nearshoring-driven construction boom across northern Mexico is generating domestic demand for base metals that partially offsets the loss of export markets.

Why 2025 Was So Bad

The 6.5% annual contraction in 2025 was the sector’s worst performance since the pandemic year. Three factors converged: the United States 50% steel tariffs choked export volumes, a 2023 reform to the Federal Mining Law shortened concession terms from 50 to 30 years and imposed stricter environmental requirements, and Mexico‘s government recovered more than 1,200 mining concessions in early 2026 for noncompliance.

The regulatory tightening discouraged greenfield exploration. Many companies responded by redirecting capital toward brownfield expansion at established mines rather than pursuing new deposits. The result is a sector producing from a shrinking base of permitted assets while geological potential remains largely untapped.

The Fraser Institute Signal

Despite the regulatory headwinds, the global mining industry’s assessment of Mexico is improving. The country jumped from 49th to 36th on the Fraser Institute’s 2025 investment attractiveness index, driven almost entirely by a leap from 27th to 7th globally on the mineral potential index — the highest ranking in Latin America, ahead of Brazil, Peru, and Chile.

The gap between Mexico’s geological wealth and its policy environment is the defining tension. Five states — Sonora, Zacatecas, Durango, Chihuahua, and Guerrero — account for 84% of total mineral production.

Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer, second-largest in fluorite, and holds an estimated 243 million tonnes of lithium reserves, the largest globally. Federal authorities have signaled they will resume large-scale geological exploration in Sonora, Durango, and Sinaloa in 2026.

What to Watch

The USMCA review opening May 25 will determine whether critical minerals receive special treatment in the renegotiated trade framework. If Mexico’s lithium, copper, and rare-earth deposits gain preferential access to the North American supply chain, the investment case for the sector transforms from a brownfield story into a greenfield opportunity.

For now, the February rebound is a stabilization signal, not a turnaround. The steel pact signed Wednesday by Sheinbaum will increase domestic demand for Mexican-produced metals. But until the regulatory environment catches up with the geological potential, Mexico’s mining sector will continue to punch below its weight.