Chile’s INE publishes the April IPC on Friday, May 8 at 08:00 local time, with the consensus pointing to a monthly increase between 1.5% and 1.7% that would push the 12-month rate from 2.8% in March to above 4% — past the upper limit of the Banco Central’s 3% target band.
Scotiabank’s 1.73% monthly forecast (4.4% annual) sits at the high end of the range; Itaú projects 1.5% with a one-percentage-point fuel contribution, and Zurich expects 1.4% (4.1% annual).
Roughly 70% of the monthly print is attributed to fuel-price increases driven by the Middle East war, with international fuel prices not yet feeding into the local pump price until the May 7 MEPCO adjustment.
Key Points
— INE publishes April IPC Friday May 8 at 08:00 local; consensus 1.5-1.7% monthly.
— Annual rate jumps from 2.8% March to above 4%, breaching the upper Banco Central target band.
— Bencinas account for ~70% of the monthly print after Iran war pushed Brent above US$100.
— Scotiabank: 1.73% (high). Itaú: 1.5% (mid). Zurich: 1.4% (low).
— Banco Central RPM June 16 in focus; market sees rising chance of TPM hike.
Why Fuel Drives the Print
The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the April IPC reflects a delayed pass-through of the Middle East fuel shock. Brent crude rose above US$100 per barrel in late March and held there through most of April amid the Iran war, with local Chilean prices following via the MEPCO smoothing mechanism on weekly Thursday adjustments. The MEPCO band caps weekly variation, meaning the April peak in international prices fed into local gasoline and diesel through staggered increases over four consecutive Thursdays.
Scotiabank estimates a direct fuel impact of around 1.1 percentage points on the April IPC, with second-round effects on transport services and food adding another 0.3 to 0.4 points and indexation adjustments to other services contributing the rest. The fuel share of 70% sits as the highest single-month fuel contribution since the 2022 inflation peak. Diffusion is expected to climb to the upper part of the historical range, signaling broad price pressure rather than narrow shock.
When the Drop Comes
Brent fell 6.8% on Wednesday May 6 to US$95.23 per barrel on prospects of a US-Iran memorandum, opening the door for negative fuel contributions starting in May or June. The pass-through depends on whether the Boric government accelerates the decline through MEPCO or lets it filter gradually, mirroring the symmetric design of the smoothing fund. May 7 is the next MEPCO fixing — the first that could capture the post-war oil correction.
What This Means for Banco Central Policy
The Banco Central held the TPM at 4.5% on April 29, signaling concern about short-term inflation but maintaining patience on the easing path. Scotiabank now sees 12-month inflation approaching 5% after May’s IPC and projects a 4.5% close for December 2026. The June 16 RPM is the next policy decision and is shaping into a critical session, with the Consejo expected to weigh whether the surge represents an inflation expectations un-anchoring or a transitory fuel shock.
The Encuesta de Operadores Financieros raised its April IPC projection to 1.6% from 0.2% three months ago and now sees 12-month inflation at 4.9%, while 90.3% rule out any rate cut at the June meeting and most do not expect cuts in July either. The Encuesta de Determinantes de Precios shows companies ratcheting expectations: 12-month forecasts moved from 3.0% to 3.3%, while 24-month forecasts remain anchored at 3.0%. Cobre at US$4.95 per pound and copper futures supportive of CLP also moderate the inflation pass-through, with the Chilean peso among the firmer Latin American currencies in 2026.
| Indicator | Value / Forecast |
|---|---|
| April IPC consensus (mensual) | 1.5-1.7% |
| Annual rate forecast | 4.1-4.4% |
| March IPC (annual) | 2.8% |
| Fuel contribution | ~70% of monthly print |
| TPM (current) | 4.5% |
| Brent crude (May 6 close) | US$95.23 (−6.8%) |
| EOF 12-month inflation forecast | 4.9% |
| Banco Central inflation target | 3.0% (±1%) |
Connected Coverage
For broader context on Latin American monetary policy, see our coverage of the Banxico final-cut decision and how Mexican inflation drivers compare and our analysis of Argentina’s risk compression after the Fitch upgrade as a regional benchmark.
What Happens Next
- Friday May 8, 08:00: INE publishes April IPC; consensus 1.5-1.7% monthly.
- Thursday May 7: MEPCO weekly fixing — first that could capture post-Iran-war oil drop.
- Tuesday June 16: Banco Central next RPM; markets see rising chance of TPM hike.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Chile publish the April IPC?
Chile’s INE publishes the April IPC on Friday, May 8, 2026 at 08:00 local time, with consensus from major banks placing the monthly print between 1.5% and 1.7% and Scotiabank‘s 1.73% at the high end. The annual rate is expected to jump from 2.8% in March to above 4%, breaching the upper edge of the Banco Central’s 3% target band. The reading sits 24 hours after the May 7 MEPCO fuel-price fixing.
Why is fuel driving 70% of the print?
The Iran war pushed Brent crude above US$100 per barrel in late March and through most of April, with local Chilean prices following via the MEPCO smoothing mechanism on weekly Thursday adjustments. April captured 4 consecutive MEPCO fixings at elevated international prices, generating an estimated 1.1 percentage points of direct fuel impact according to Scotiabank. Second-round effects on transport services and food add another 0.3-0.4 points, while indexation lifts other services.
Will inflation drop in May or June?
Brent fell 6.8% on May 6 to US$95.23 per barrel on US-Iran memorandum prospects, opening the door for negative fuel contributions starting in May or June. The pass-through depends on whether the government accelerates the decline through MEPCO or lets it filter gradually, mirroring the symmetric design of the fund. Scotiabank still sees 12-month inflation near 5% after the May print, with year-end at 4.5%.
What does this mean for the TPM?
The Banco Central held the TPM at 4.5% on April 29, signaling caution and tightening watch on inflation expectations. The June 16 RPM is the key trigger: 90.3% of EOF respondents now rule out a cut, while a small but rising minority sees scope for a hike if the May IPC confirms inflation expectations are de-anchoring. The 12-month EOF inflation forecast at 4.9% is well above target, and 12-month corporate price expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.3%.
Updated: 2026-05-07T10:00:00Z by Rio Times Editorial Desk