Brazil’s Supreme Court Split Offers Bolsonaro a Second Chance

Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux cast a lone dissent in Bolsonaro’s coup-plot trial, arguing the court lacked jurisdiction. His 13-hour vote opens a legal pathway for future annulment.

Fux said lower courts should handle cases against former presidents and criticized the late surge of evidence that overwhelmed defense teams.

Experts compare this strategy to the 2021 Lava Jato reversal. Then-Justice Edson Fachin annulled former President Lula’s corruption convictions on jurisdiction grounds.

That decision freed Lula and reshaped Brazil’s political balance. Three Supreme Court justices—Fux (retiring April 2028), Carmen Lúcia (April 2029), and Gilmar Mendes (December 2030)—will vacate seats under current rules.

The next president, chosen in 2026, will appoint their replacements. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s endorsed heir, pledges immediate pardon if elected.

Conservatives also aim to win Senate control in 2026. A majority could initiate impeachment proceedings against Supreme Court ministers.

They currently hold dozens of impeachment requests, none scheduled for a vote. Criminal law scholars highlight revision procedures that can reopen final convictions on procedural nullities.

They stress that a shifted court might favor Bolsonaro’s appeal. Fux’s dissent gives this approach political and judicial legitimacy.

Bolsonaro remains under house arrest with a 27-year sentence and suspended political rights until 2030. Yet his defense has effectively laid groundwork for a potential reversal aligned with upcoming judicial and political changes.