Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Wednesday, May 13, 2026
CPI 3.8% Hot · Core 2.8% Beat · Ibovespa 180,342 New Low · S&P −0.8% · Nasdaq −1.7% · Qualcomm −12% · Trump: Truce on Life Support · PPI Today · Warsh in 2 Days · War Day 74
CPI Came in Hot at 3.8%, the Ibovespa Broke 181K, and Trump Said the Iran Truce Is on “Life Support”
US headline CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year in April — the hottest print since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus — while core CPI increased 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, beating the +0.3% / +2.7% consensus, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Ibovespa fell 0.86% to 180,342.33, breaking below 181,000 for the first time and setting a new correction low 18,316 points (9.2%) below the 198,658 all-time high, per B3 data. The S&P 500 dropped approximately 0.8% and the Nasdaq tumbled roughly 1.7% as chip stocks sold off violently — Qualcomm fell 12% and Intel dropped 9%, per Yahoo Finance. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 4.9 basis points to 4.461%, the highest since last July, according to TheStreet.
President Trump escalated the rhetoric on Iran, declaring the truce is on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s counterproposal, per TheStreet’s market recap. Trump departed for Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping, accompanied by 16 business executives including Elon Musk. CME FedWatch showed a 98% probability the Fed holds rates at its next meeting but a 30% chance of a rate hike by December, according to Yahoo Finance. Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management told TheStreet the war “is impacting both the headline number as expected, but also the core, which was even higher than expected.” Real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% year-over-year, per BLS data cited by Yahoo Finance. The BRL held at R$4.8911, essentially flat despite the global selloff. Today: US PPI Apr (08:30 ET, cons: +0.5% MoM / +4.9% YoY). Core PPI (cons: +0.3% / +4.3%). Brazil Retail Sales (08:00 BRT, cons: +2.8% YoY). EIA Crude Inventories (10:30, cons: −2.0M). IEA Monthly Report (05:00 ET). OPEC Monthly Report (06:00). Eurozone GDP Q1 (05:00, cons: +0.1% QoQ). 30Y Bond Auction (13:00). FOMC Kashkari (13:15). ECB Lagarde (15:15). Cerebras IPO pricing. Warsh May 15 (2 days). War Day 74.
Three Things That Matter
| Yesterday | US CPI: +0.6% MoM / +3.8% YoY — hottest since May 2023 (BLS). Core: +0.4% / +2.8% (beat +0.3% / +2.7%). Real earnings −0.3% YoY. Ibovespa −0.86% to 180,342 — NEW LOW, broke 181K (B3). 9.2% below ATH. S&P 500 ~−0.8%. Nasdaq ~−1.7%. Dow −0.3% (Yahoo Finance). Qualcomm −12%, Intel −9% (chip selloff). 10Y +4.9bp to 4.461% (TheStreet). Trump: truce on “life support” (TheStreet). Trump departed for Beijing — Xi summit with 16 CEOs including Musk. CME: 98% hold June, 30% hike by Dec (Yahoo). Petrobras Q1 webcast: record 3.23M bpd. USD/BRL R$4.8911 (flat). MERVAL −1.42%. COLCAP −0.97%. IPSA −0.57%. IPC −0.30%. BTC $81,027 (+0.67%) |
| Overnight | French CPI Apr: +2.2% YoY (in-line). French HICP: +2.5% (in-line). German WPI Apr: +6.3% YoY (vs prev 4.1%) — surging wholesale inflation. French unemployment: 8.1% (missed 7.8%). Japan Economy Watchers: 40.8 (missed 41.5). S&P futures −0.5%. Brent near $101. Cerebras IPO pricing today — biggest listing of 2026. Trump-Xi summit underway in Beijing |
| Today | IEA Monthly Report (05:00 ET). OPEC Monthly Report (06:00). Eurozone GDP Q1 prelim (05:00, cons: +0.1% QoQ / +0.8% YoY). Eurozone Industrial Production (cons: +0.3% MoM). Eurozone Employment. Brazil Retail Sales Mar (08:00 BRT, cons: +2.8% YoY / 0.0% MoM). US PPI Apr (08:30 ET, cons: +0.5% MoM / +4.9% YoY). Core PPI (cons: +0.3% / +4.3%). EIA Crude Inventories (10:30, cons: −2.0M). Fed Collins speaks (11:30). US 30Y Bond Auction (13:00). FOMC Kashkari speaks (13:15). ECB Lagarde speaks (15:15). ECB Lane speaks. BoE Mann speaks. Brazil FX Flows. Cerebras IPO. Warsh May 15 (2 days). War Day 74 |
CPI at 3.8% Confirmed the War’s Inflation Pass-Through Is Accelerating
The April CPI confirmed what ISM Prices at 84.6 and Core PCE at 4.3% had been signaling: the Hormuz blockade’s inflation pass-through has arrived in consumer prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Headline CPI rose from 3.3% in March to 3.8% in April — the fastest acceleration since the pandemic recovery — while core CPI moved from 2.6% to 2.8%, per BLS data. Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management told TheStreet that “the war in Iran — and the associated closing of the Strait of Hormuz — is impacting both the headline number as expected, but also the core.” The core overshoot (+0.4% MoM vs +0.3% consensus) is the more concerning signal: it suggests second-round effects from energy into services, transport, and housing are underway. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% year-over-year, per the BLS — confirming that inflation is now eroding purchasing power.
The market implications are immediate: CME FedWatch repriced to 98% probability of a hold at the June meeting and a 30% probability of a rate hike by December, according to Yahoo Finance. The 10-year yield surged to 4.461%, per TheStreet. This is the backdrop Kevin Warsh inherits when he’s confirmed as Fed chair on Thursday — a hot inflation print, an ongoing war premium, and a market pricing a 1-in-3 chance of hikes. For the Copom, the US CPI read reinforces the global hawkish shift: if the Fed moves toward hikes, the interest rate differential that powers the BRL carry trade compresses, and the Copom’s room to cut narrows further.
The Ibovespa Broke Below 181K and Set Its Deepest Correction at 180,342
Tuesday: O:181,896.57, H:181,896.57, L:179,938.70, C:180,342.33 (−0.86%, −1,566.54), per B3 data. Open = High for the first time in the correction — the most bearish session structure. The intraday low at 179,939 briefly broke below 180K, per TradingView. MACD: main line at −298.40, signal at −1,362.53, histogram at −1,660.93 — the main MACD line has turned negative for the first time since early March, confirming the bearish crossover is deepening. RSI at 44.52, signal at 35.09 — the signal has broken below 36, the lowest since the war’s opening weeks.
Resistance: 180,342 (Tue close) → 181,909 (Mon close) → 184,324 → 187,197 (Kijun) → 198,658 (ATH).
Support: 179,939 (Tue low) → 178,604 (next Ichimoku from chart) → 162,522 (200-day SMA).
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.03%
173,325.65
-0.03%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,954.04
+0.52%
3,281,979
+1.81%
2,301.34
+0.13%
56,620.35
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,325.65 | -0.03% | +29.19% | 173,371.35 | 173,720 | 172,219 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.31% | -8.83% | 5.09 | 5.07 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | -1.20% | -11.03% | 5.85 | 5.78 | 5.78 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 91.69 | +2.77% | +32.48% | 89.22 | 91.70 | 91.51 | 90 |
| WTI | 84.85 | +1.95% | +26.26% | 83.23 | 84.91 | 84.56 | 2,070 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +65.48% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,085 | +1.86% | +20.08% | 4,010 | 4,089 | 4,081 | 2,367 |
| SILVER | 59.11 | +4.05% | +51.16% | 56.80 | 59.23 | 59.03 | 308 |
| LITHIUM | 69.08 | +3.23% | +57.32% | 66.92 | 69.35 | 68.35 | 339,090 |
| SOY | 1,222 | -0.31% | +20.42% | 1,226 | 1,230 | 1,217 | 125,914 |
| CORN | 475.25 | +5.73% | +17.71% | 449.50 | 476.50 | 469.00 | 157,933 |
| WHEAT | 678.50 | +0.67% | +25.13% | 674.00 | 679.00 | 665.25 | 57,577 |
| COFFEE | 322.80 | -3.47% | +8.60% | 334.40 | 335.40 | 320.75 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.90 | +0.54% | -8.98% | 14.82 | 14.97 | 14.76 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.30 | -3.46% | -56.52% | 147.40 | 149.90 | 141.50 | — |
| COTTON | 80.03 | +3.44% | +20.27% | 77.37 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 9,915 |
| BEEF | 223.05 | -1.53% | -0.97% | 226.52 | 224.68 | 221.98 | 19,662 |
| CATTLE | 344.88 | -2.02% | +5.27% | 352.00 | 348.05 | 343.20 | 7,785 |
| COCOA | 5,606 | +1.56% | -31.27% | 5,520 | 5,733 | 5,405 | — |
| PETR4 | 41.66 | +1.24% | +34.17% | 41.15 | 41.70 | 41.13 | 38,572,100 |
| VALE3 | 72.24 | +0.43% | +28.88% | 71.93 | 72.97 | 71.57 | 12,569,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.63 | -0.62% | -18.37% | 41.89 | 42.01 | 41.44 | 2,360,700 |
| KLABIN | 17.59 | +0.63% | -5.25% | 17.48 | 17.66 | 17.36 | 3,095,700 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | +1.33% | -14.49% | 13.57 | 13.76 | 13.54 | 1,787,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.80 | +0.06% | +17.73% | 15.79 | 15.90 | 15.74 | 19,626,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.53 | +0.54% | +23.47% | 42.30 | 42.58 | 42.18 | 9,818,100 |
| BBDC4 | 18.55 | +0.76% | +18.30% | 18.41 | 18.64 | 18.35 | 19,389,500 |
| BBAS3 | 20.88 | +3.52% | +5.14% | 20.17 | 20.88 | 20.08 | 25,242,800 |
| B3SA3 | 15.17 | -0.59% | +15.80% | 15.26 | 15.32 | 14.95 | 29,232,900 |
| WEGE3 | 42.47 | -1.53% | +1.19% | 43.13 | 43.34 | 42.46 | 8,926,800 |
| PRIO3 | 58.18 | +0.85% | +36.06% | 57.69 | 58.96 | 58.11 | 4,481,700 |
| RENT3 | 36.55 | -2.51% | +2.04% | 37.49 | 37.51 | 36.52 | 7,496,100 |
| AZZA3 | 17.48 | -3.80% | -50.80% | 18.17 | 18.27 | 17.30 | 1,739,300 |
| CSNA3 | 5.06 | -0.20% | -36.67% | 5.07 | 5.16 | 5.04 | 9,037,000 |
| GGBR4 | 23.49 | -0.55% | +41.34% | 23.62 | 23.77 | 23.42 | 4,028,600 |
| ENEV3 | 25.42 | -0.90% | +84.20% | 25.65 | 25.66 | 25.12 | 4,079,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.30% | -24.04% | 13.31 | 13.41 | 13.12 | 8,623,200 |
Market Snapshot AS OF TUE, MAY 12 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 180,342.33 | −0.86% NEW LOW (9.2% from ATH) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.8911 | Flat (carry holds at new lows) |
| S&P 500 | ~7,353* | ~−0.8% (hot CPI, Yahoo Finance) |
| Nasdaq | ~25,827* | ~−1.7% (QCOM −12%, INTC −9%) |
| US CPI YoY | 3.8% | HOT · Hottest since May 2023 (BLS) |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.461% | +4.9bp · highest since July (TheStreet) |
| Bitcoin | $81,027 | +0.67% (TradingView) |
* = approximate close. Sources: B3, BLS, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, CNBC, TradingView, CME FedWatch.
Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, MAY 13
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 05:00–06:00 ET | IEA Monthly Report (05:00). Eurozone GDP Q1 prelim (05:00, cons: +0.1% QoQ / +0.8% YoY). EZ Industrial Production (cons: +0.3%). EZ Employment. OPEC Monthly Report (06:00) | HIGH |
| 08:00–08:30 ET | Brazil Retail Sales Mar (08:00 BRT, cons: +2.8% YoY / 0.0% MoM). US PPI Apr (08:30, cons: +0.5% MoM / +4.9% YoY). Core PPI (cons: +0.3% / +4.3%) | CRITICAL |
| 10:30 ET | EIA Crude Inventories (cons: −2.0M vs prev −2.3M). Gasoline (cons: −2.55M). Distillates (cons: −2.99M) | HIGH |
| 13:00–15:15 ET | US 30Y Bond Auction (13:00). FOMC Kashkari speaks (13:15). BoE Mann speaks. ECB Lagarde speaks (15:15). ECB Lane speaks. Fed Collins speaks (11:30) | HIGH |
Latin America Markets TUESDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 180,342 | −0.86% | 44.52 |
| IPC Mexico | 70,037 | −0.30% | 57.11 |
| MERVAL | 2,792,993 | −1.42% | 45.59 |
| IPSA Chile | 10,641 | −0.57% | 48.24 |
| COLCAP | 2,089 | −0.97% | 37.50 |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The hot CPI at 3.8% confirmed what the war has been building: the Hormuz blockade’s inflation pass-through has arrived in consumer prices. Core at 2.8% (above consensus) means second-round effects are underway. The Ibovespa at 180,342 has fallen 9.2% from the ATH — the deepest correction of 2026 — while the S&P pulled back and the Nasdaq sold off 1.7% on chip profit-taking. Trump declared the truce on “life support.” The 10Y yield hit its highest since July. CME FedWatch prices a 30% chance of hikes by December. Warsh takes the Fed chair in 2 days.
Wednesday’s PPI at 08:30 ET (cons: +4.9% YoY) determines whether the inflation picture worsens further. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports will provide the first agency-level assessment of the 14-point MOU’s supply implications. EIA inventories (cons: −2.0M) are the oil data event. Eurozone GDP at +0.1% would confirm European stagnation. Brazil Retail Sales test whether the domestic consumer is holding. The 30Y bond auction and FOMC Kashkari complete the rates picture.
Bias: Bearish, with the 180K level as the line in the sand. The Ibovespa has fallen five sessions in a row and seven of the last eight. The MACD main line turned negative. RSI signal at 35.09 is at war-era lows. But the BRL at R$4.89 is still at multi-year highs, proving the carry trade remains structurally intact. The correction is now testing whether 180K holds or the index slides toward the 200-day SMA at 162,522. A soft PPI today could pause the decline; a hot PPI extends it. Watch PPI at 08:30, EIA at 10:30, and Kashkari at 13:15.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the April US CPI show?
US headline CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year in April — the hottest reading since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly headline CPI increased 0.6%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, both above consensus estimates of 0.3% and 2.7%. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% year-over-year, confirming inflation is eroding purchasing power.
How deep is the Ibovespa’s correction now?
The Ibovespa closed at 180,342.33 on May 12, per B3 data — 18,316 points (9.2%) below the 198,658 all-time high set on April 14. The index has fallen five consecutive sessions and set new correction lows in four of them. The intraday low at 179,939 briefly broke below the 180,000 psychological level. The MACD main line turned negative for the first time since early March, confirming a bearish crossover.
What is the status of the Iran deal?
President Trump declared the truce with Iran is on “life support” on Tuesday, May 12, after rejecting Tehran’s latest counterproposal, according to TheStreet. The original 14-point MOU framework reported by Axios on May 6 has not been signed. US strikes on Qeshm Port and Iran’s accusation that the US “broke the ceasefire” have complicated negotiations. Trump traveled to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping. The 48-hour response deadline passed without a formal deal.
When is Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation vote is expected Thursday, May 15 — two days from today. He inherits a Fed facing the hottest CPI since May 2023 (3.8%), core inflation above the 2% target (2.8%), a 10-year yield at 4.461%, and CME FedWatch pricing a 30% probability of rate hikes by December, per Yahoo Finance. The mandate Warsh inherits will define whether the Fed pivots hawkish or maintains its data-dependent hold through 2026..
Updated: 2026-05-13T07:50:00Z by RT Staff Reporters
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.