Bolsonaro has an advantage in four regions; Lula da Silva in one -IDEIA poll

In the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic, the battle for regions shows an advantage for President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL, right) in four of them and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT, left) in one.

According to the IDEIA Institute survey released on Thursday, the candidate for re-election leads in the country’s largest electoral college, the Southeast (53% to 45%), in the North (47% to 46%), in the South (53% to 43%), and the Center-West (52% to 37%).

Lula da Silva is ahead in one region, the Northeast, with 67% to 28% of voting intentions.

In the first round, Bolsonaro was victorious in these same regions where he leads in the runoff elections, as does the PT candidate.

The latest campaign agendas of both men show a concentration in the Southeastern states, especially Minas Gerais and the Northeastern region, the main battlegrounds in this second round.

Despite gaining an advantage over da Silva in the number of regions, Bolsonaro is behind the PT candidate in the overall numbers.

The former president has 52% of the valid votes, and the current president has 48%.

Blanks, nulls, and people who say they don’t know yet are not considered valid votes. That is how the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) makes the official election count.

The poll’s margin of error is three percentage points higher or lower, so the scenario is considered a technical tie.

The Brazilian presidential candidate has between 49% and 55% of the valid votes, while Bolsonaro has between 45% and 51%.

IDEIA interviewed 1,500 voters by phone between October 14 and 19 and registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-00053/2022. The confidence level is 95%.

TOTAL VOTES

In an estimated question, with the names presented in a list format to the interviewees, Lula da Silva appears with 50%, and Bolsonaro has 46%.

People who don’t know are 2%, and blanks and nulls add up to another 2%.

In the spontaneous question, when the voter needs to say the first name that comes to mind, da Silva has the same 50%, and the current president, 44%.

Considering the history of runoff simulations between Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro, this is one of the narrowest distances between the two.

There is no way to accurately compare the simulations done before the first round because the tests are done under different circumstances, such as the possibility of other candidates moving to a runoff, but it helps to build a picture of how the voter thought over time.

What is clear is the decrease in the number of undecided voters, which reached 2% in this survey.

WHO WAS AHEAD IN THE FIRST ROUND?

Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will compete in the runoff presidential election.

With 100% of the ballots counted, da Silva got 48.43% of the valid votes, and Bolsonaro, 43.20%, in the first round of voting, held on Sunday, October 2.

To win in the first round, a candidate would need 50% of the valid votes plus one, excluding whites and null votes.

• Simone Tebet (MDB) had 4.16% of the valid votes;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) had 3.04%;
• Null and blank votes added up to 4.20%.

For the posts of president and governor, when neither candidate reaches 50% plus one of the valid votes, the election goes to a runoff.

In 2022, the runoff will take place on October 30.

With information from Poder360