The Big Three
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is “completamente aberto” — and oil crashed up to 14%, dragging Petrobras down nearly 7% and ripping the Ibovespa from an intraday high of 198,665 to a close of 195,733.51 (−0.55%). Foreign Minister Araghchi declared all commercial ships can transit freely through the strait until the ceasefire expires Wednesday, April 22. Oil plummeted: Brent fell as much as 14% to $85 before settling near $89 (−10.3%), WTI crashed 11.5% to $83.80. PETR4 collapsed 6.96% to R$45.20, PETR3 fell 5.31%. PRIO3 led the carnage at −7.3%, BRAV3 −5.23%, RECV3 −5.15%. The Ibovespa opened in euphoria — touching 198,665 on the peace headlines — then reversed 3,298 points to the low of 195,367. The close at 195,734 is the third consecutive decline and the index’s lowest level since April 11.
The dollar broke to a new cycle low at R$4.9521 intraday — the weakest the greenback has traded since early 2024 — before closing at R$4.9787 (−0.25%) as oil’s collapse turbocharged the real’s carry-trade advantage. The logic is clean: cheaper oil means lower domestic fuel inflation, which gives the Copom more room to cut, which widens the carry differential, which attracts more capital. The real gained on a day when the Ibovespa fell nearly 1% from peak to close — the fifth consecutive session below R$5.00. The equity-FX divergence, driven entirely by oil exposure, confirms that the Hormuz reopening is bullish for Brazil’s macro even as it is bearish for Brazil’s largest company. The RSI signal at 29.02 is now formally oversold for the dollar.
The rotation underneath the Petrobras wreckage was explosive: Vale +1.83%, Usiminas +3.15%, Vamos +6.27%, Direcional +4.48% — the market instantly repriced the non-oil book higher as inflation expectations collapsed. The Petrobras AGM (Thursday: R$41.2B dividends approved, Guilherme Mello elected chairman, R$114B capex greenlit) is now secondary to the oil question: if Hormuz stays open, Brent could drop to the $80–85 range, which would cut Petrobras earnings estimates by 15–20% and force analysts to re-rate the stock’s weight in the Ibovespa. Conversely, the same oil drop would be the most dovish development for the BCB since the ceasefire — potentially unlocking a 50bp Copom cut instead of 25bp on April 28–29. Friday’s session wasn’t a correction. It was a regime change signal.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 195,733.51 | −0.55% (−1,085.08 pts) |
| Session High | 198,665.65 | 3rd test of 198,951 zone |
| Session Low | 195,367.90 | deepest since Apr 11 |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9787 | −0.25% (low: R$4.9521) |
| 3-Day Pullback | −2,924 pts | −1.47% from Tue ATH |
| Week | −1.47% | first losing week since Mar |
| April | +4.41% | still solidly positive |
| YTD | +21.48% | 18 ATHs in 2026 |
| Selic | 14.75% | unchanged |
| Brent Crude | ~$89 | −10.3% (Hormuz reopened) |
| Foreign Inflows | R$67.4B | YTD |
| Next Copom | Apr 28–29 | 10 days |
02 Equities — Hormuz Reopened, Oil Crashed, Petrobras Cratered
Today’s Ibovespa market report covers the most dramatic intraday reversal since the ceasefire began. The session opened in euphoria at 196,880, surged to 198,665 on peace headlines — testing the 198,951 real-terms ATH for the third time in four sessions — before Iran’s Hormuz announcement triggered a 3,298-point collapse to the low of 195,367. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
The catalyst was unambiguous: Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz “completamente aberto” to all commercial traffic in consonance with the Lebanon ceasefire. Oil dropped as much as 14% intraday before settling with Brent at −10.3% near $89 and WTI at −11.5% near $83.80 — the largest single-day oil decline since the ceasefire itself on April 7. The war premium that had sustained crude above $95 for weeks evaporated in hours. Petroleum stocks were obliterated: PRIO3 −7.3% (day’s biggest loser), PETR4 −6.96% to R$45.20, PETR3 −5.31%, BRAV3 −5.23%, RECV3 −5.15%.
But the story under the headline was the rotation — and it was ferocious. As oil stocks cratered, the non-oil Ibovespa surged: Vale +1.83% on firmer iron ore, Usiminas +3.15%, Vamos +6.27% (day’s top gainer), Direcional +4.48%, CSN +2.57%. Banks were mixed but stable. The index closed at 195,734 — a 0.55% decline that understates the violence beneath the surface. Without Petrobras’s ~13% index weight dragging at −7%, the rest of the market was solidly green. This is the ceasefire trade in its purest form: what’s bad for oil is good for Brazilian inflation, rates, and the consumer economy.
03 The Dollar Breaks R$4.95 Intraday — New 2026 Low
The dollar closed at R$4.9787 (−0.25%) on Friday after touching R$4.9521 intraday — the weakest the greenback has traded against the real in over two years. This is the fifth consecutive session below R$5.00, confirming that R$5.00 has definitively flipped from resistance to support. The equity-FX divergence is now the week’s defining data point: the Ibovespa lost 1.47% while the real gained 0.50% against the dollar. That pattern does not exist in capital-flight scenarios.
From the chart, the RSI signal has dropped to 29.02 — formally oversold. The main RSI at 36.36 is approaching 30. The MACD histogram at −0.0639 is the widest negative reading of the year for the third consecutive session, confirming structural bearish momentum for the dollar. But the oversold signal suggests the pace of depreciation may slow next week — a bounce toward R$5.00–5.03 would be technically normal. The deeper support is R$4.9255 (chart floor); the medium-term target is R$4.90 (psychological). Overhead resistance is dense: R$5.0285 → R$5.0625 → R$5.1018 → R$5.1235.
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:196,880.51, H:198,665.65, L:195,367.90, C:195,733.51 (−1,085.08, −0.55%). Friday printed the week’s most bearish candle — a wide-range red bar with a long upper wick (3,298-point range from high to low). RSI at 64.52 (signal: 64.52) has converged — the most neutral reading since the rally began, reflecting exhausted momentum rather than trend change. MACD at 3,989.06 (signal: 3,192.12, histogram: 796.93) is still positive but the histogram has compressed sharply from Tuesday’s 1,525 to Friday’s 797 — the bullish thrust is fading session by session.
The 200-day SMA at 158,734.80 sits 23.3% below the current price. The index has fallen to the lower boundary of the post-rally range. Key structure from the chart: 195,540.10 (immediate support cluster, aligns with close) → 192,620.03 (cloud top / Senkou A) → 189,908.55 / 189,218.90 (Senkou B / mid-range) → 187,197.08 (Kijun/Tenkan convergence). Resistance: 198,665 (Friday high) → 198,951 (2008 real ATH, triple-rejected) → 199,355 (Apr 14 intraday ATH) → 200,000 (psychological) → 202,514 (upper Bollinger). The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the 192,201–199,355 rally falls at 196,622 — Friday’s close at 195,734 is now below this level, suggesting the correction may test the 50% retracement at 195,778 or the 61.8% at 194,934 before stabilizing.
04b Technical Analysis — USD/BRL Daily
From the chart: O:4.9912, H:4.9940, L:4.9521, C:4.9787 (−0.0125, −0.25%). The dollar made a decisive new cycle low at R$4.9521 before bouncing into the close — a classic exhaustion move. The RSI signal at 29.02 is in oversold territory; the main RSI at 36.36 is approaching but hasn’t yet breached the 30 threshold. The MACD histogram at −0.0639 — the deepest negative reading of 2026 for the fourth consecutive session — confirms that the structural downtrend in the dollar is intact even as near-term oversold conditions suggest a pause. Key levels: support R$4.9255 (chart floor) → R$4.90 (psychological). Resistance R$5.0285 → R$5.0625 (Tenkan) → R$5.1018 (Kijun) → R$5.1235 (cloud entry).
05 Key Levels
| Level | Ibovespa |
| Upper Bollinger | 202,514 |
| 200,000 (psychological) | 200,000 |
| 2008 Real ATH (triple rejected) | 198,951 |
| Friday High | 198,666 |
| Friday Close | 195,734 |
| Fib 50% / Support cluster | 195,540 |
| Friday Low | 195,368 |
| Cloud Top (Senkou A) | 192,620 |
| Senkou B / Mid-range | 189,909 |
| 200-Day SMA | 158,735 |
06 News in Focus
Petrobras AGM: R$41.2B Dividends, Mello as Chairman, R$114B Capex
Petrobras‘ Assembleia Geral Ordinária on Thursday delivered the trifecta: R$41.2 billion in total 2025 dividends (84.56% shareholder support), Guilherme Santos Mello elected chairman of the Conselho de Administração, and R$114 billion in capital expenditure approved for 2026 with exploration and production at its core. Mello — formerly Secretário-Executivo at the Ministério do Planejamento and the architect of Lula’s arcabouço fiscal framework — represents the government’s institutional governance approach: control through competence, not interference. The government retained its six-of-eleven board majority; minority shareholders secured two seats (Marcelo Gasparino, Rachel de Oliveira Maia). The B3 ex-dividend cut-off is April 22; shares trade ex-dividend from April 23. The government and BNDES, as controlling shareholders, will receive R$17.6 billion of the total distribution.
STF-Senado Crisis: Alcolumbre Shields Four Senators, Gilmar at PGR
The institutional confrontation entered its fourth day. Senate president Davi Alcolumbre formally placed the Advocacia-Geral do Senado at the disposal of Alessandro Vieira, Flávio Bolsonaro, Sergio Moro, and Marcos do Val — the four senators directly targeted or threatened by the STF this week. Gilmar Mendes’ formal PGR complaint against Vieira for abuse of authority (analyzed by PGR Paulo Gonet, himself a target of Vieira’s relatório) remains pending. The opposition called the STF’s response “guerra” against the Congresso. The market’s verdict: zero FX contagion, zero DI impact. The crisis is being priced as election-year political theatre — not institutional rupture.
Hormuz Reopened: Iran Declares Strait “Completely Open,” Oil Crashes 10%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completamente aberto” — all commercial ships can transit freely through the waterway, in consonance with the Lebanon ceasefire. The announcement came alongside a separate Israel-Lebanon truce. Oil crashed: Brent fell as much as 14% intraday to $85 before settling near $89 (−10.3%), WTI plunged 11.5% to $83.80 — the single largest daily oil decline since the April 7 ceasefire. Trump confirmed the strait is open to commercial traffic but said the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will remain until negotiations conclude. The ceasefire has been extended into Phase 2 with a 45-day negotiation window. For Brazil, the oil crash is the most consequential development since the war began: it simultaneously destroys Petrobras earnings estimates and unlocks a potentially more dovish Copom path at the April 28–29 meeting. The net macro effect is bullish for Brazil — which is why the dollar fell to R$4.95 on the same day the Ibovespa dropped.
Lula Interview Fallout: Moraes Opens Inquiry Against Flávio Bolsonaro
STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes opened an inquiry against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro for calúnia — based on a January 3 post on X where Flávio attributed to Lula crimes including drug trafficking, arms dealing, money laundering, and electoral fraud. The inquiry (Petição 15.648) was signed April 13, published April 15, and gives the PF 60 days for initial diligências. Lula’s Tuesday interview to Brasil 247, Fórum, and DCM — in which he called the Iran war “inconsequente,” attacked Trump’s electoral interference, and said Flávio was “pego de calças curtas” for using a 2021-era fake news video — landed after the inquiry was already signed. The Bolsonaro camp has responded with tactical silence, using Alcolumbre’s institutional shield rather than social-media engagement.
07 Global Context
U.S. bank earnings closed out the week with beats across all six major reporting banks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq held near all-time highs. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s growth-optimism framework and Trump’s “stock market is going to boom” call reinforced the risk-on backdrop. Oil’s snap-back toward $100 on Thursday — driven by Hormuz blockade supply disruption — was the week’s most significant commodity move, reversing the mid-week decline and shifting the Petrobras calculus from drag to catalyst.
Brazil enters the Tiradentes long weekend as the top-performing major EM equity market in 2026 — even after this week’s 1.47% correction. The Ibovespa’s 21.48% YTD gain, the real’s 9.3% appreciation, R$67.4 billion in foreign inflows, and the first euro bond in 12 years constitute a structural positioning story that the three-day pullback has not dented. The week’s correction was entirely a function of the 198,951 resistance and pre-holiday positioning — not a thesis change.
08 Looking Ahead
B3 is closed Tuesday April 21 for Tiradentes — the next session is Wednesday April 22. The market reopens into a compressed five-day stretch before the April 28–29 Copom, which is now the single most important event for Brazilian equities. The key macro question: does the Copom deliver 25bp to 14.50% (as priced), hold (on IPCA at 4.71% above the ceiling), or signal a pause for the next meeting? The answer will determine whether the 200,000 milestone is a Q2 event or gets pushed to post-election.
The Petrobras ex-dividend cut-off on April 22 is a micro-catalyst: institutional holders who need to be positioned by Wednesday’s open will buy ahead of the ex-date. Vale reports Q1 on April 28. Gerdau on April 27. Itaú and Bradesco on May 5. Petrobras on May 11. The earnings calendar is about to provide fundamental data that either validates the 21.48% YTD rally or forces a recalibration. Until then, the index sits between the triple-rejected 198,951 and the 195,540 support cluster — a range of 3,417 points (1.75%) that will resolve in one direction or the other by month-end.
Key dates: Tuesday April 21 — Tiradentes (B3 closed). Wednesday April 22 — markets reopen; Petrobras ex-dividend cut-off; CCBB Amano exhibition opens. April 27 — Gerdau Q1. April 28 — Vale Q1. April 28–29 — Copom meeting. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1. May 11 — Petrobras Q1.
09 Verdict
Friday was the session where the Hormuz reopening forced the market to choose: Petrobras or Brazil? And it chose Brazil. Oil crashed 10%, Petrobras lost nearly 7%, the index fell 0.55% — but the dollar hit a new cycle low at R$4.95 and the non-oil Ibovespa was green. That is not a correction. That is a regime repricing. The 2,924-point three-day pullback from the ATH is now almost entirely a Petrobras story: strip out the oil-stock weight and the index would have closed the week higher. The Fibonacci levels confirm orderly structure: Friday’s close at 195,734 sits near the 50% retracement (195,778) of the 192,201–199,355 rally, well above the 61.8% (194,934) and the Kijun at 195,540.
Bias: Bullish — the Hormuz opening changes the Copom calculus and the 200,000 path. If oil stays in the $85–90 range, domestic fuel-inflation pressure collapses, which gives the BCB room for a 50bp cut (not just 25bp) at April 28–29. A 50bp cut to 14.25% would be the most bullish signal for rate-sensitive equities since January — and those rate-sensitive names (banks, homebuilders, retailers, utilities) are the 87% of the Ibovespa that isn’t Petrobras. The paradox: the index may reach 200,000 not despite Petrobras falling, but because Petrobras falling unlocks the dovish path for everything else. Watch three things over the Tiradentes weekend: whether the Hormuz opening holds, how Brent settles on Monday (Asian session), and any Copom guidance leaks. The structural drivers — R$67.4 billion in foreign inflows, dollar at R$4.97, euro bond successfully issued, Prisma deficit improving — are all reinforced by cheaper oil. The uptrend is intact until 192,620 breaks.
Related coverage:
Thursday session: Ibovespa Slides to 196,819 as Euro Bond Debuts and CPI-STF Crisis Deepens
Wednesday session: Ibovespa Snaps 11-Session Streak at 197,738
Petrobras AGM: Petrobras AGM Sealed: R$41.2B Dividends Approved
Inflation guide: Brazil Inflation 2026: Rates, Forecasts and What Drives IPCA
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.