Argentina Stock Market Falls 1.96% as Capitulation Floor Finally Breaks
The S&P Merval fell 1.96% to 2,738,354.49 on Wednesday May 13, 2026, breaking decisively below the double-tested capitulation floor at 2,749,913 that held on May 6 and May 11. The close was at the session low as pre-CPI de-risking accelerated. INDEC releases April CPI Thursday at 16:00 Buenos Aires — the binary that decides whether the Merval retests 2,606,735 or recovers above 2,750K.
The Big Three
The S&P Merval fell 1.96% (−54,638.76 points) to 2,738,354.49 — third-worst 2026 session by percentage. Intraday range 2,734,951–2,807,294, close at session low. The index broke below the double-tested capitulation floor at 2,749,913 that produced reversals on May 6 and May 11.
The technical picture flipped from neutral-pending to confirmed bearish. MACD histogram −11,884 with line −24,166 vs signal −12,281 deepened the crossover. RSI fast 40.88 crossed below slow 44.87 for the first time since February. The 200-DMA at 2,800,941 is now overhead resistance.
INDEC releases April CPI Thursday at 16:00 BA — the binary that decides the next leg. Trajectory: Jan +2.9%, Feb +2.9%, Mar +3.4% (32.6% YoY). Sub-3% launches toward 2,847K Kijun. A third consecutive 3%+ print extends the plateau and opens the trendline at 2,606,735.
03 Key Movers
Winners
Energy was the only sector with positive prints. YPF (YPFD) held firm on Brent above US$109 — the most direct beneficiary of the war-driven oil bid. Pampa Energía (PAMP) and Vista Energy (VIST) traded firm on Vaca Muerta production. Defensive consumer names — Mercado Libre (MELI) ADR equivalents — closed marginally green on low-beta rotation.
Losers
The Milei-trade names led the decline. Banco Macro (BMA), Grupo Galicia (GGAL), and BBVA Argentina (BBAR) — the highest-beta disinflation proxies — sold hard as positioning unwound. Telecom Argentina (TECO2) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) followed. Breadth was the worst of any 2026 session that didn’t break the May 6 / May 11 lows: roughly 85% closed red.
Key Facts
— Wednesday was the technical event the Merval had been setting up for two weeks. The capitulation floor at 2,749,913 — defended twice on May 6 and May 11 — broke decisively, with the close 11,559 points below at the session low and no intraday reversal pattern. Pre-binary de-risking ahead of Thursday’s INDEC CPI was the dominant driver; the wider LatAm risk-off (Brazil −1.80%, Colombia fourth new 2026 low) amplified the move.
— The structural overlay still supports patience. World Bank projects 3.6% growth in 2026 (highest in LatAm). The US$20B IMF EFF provides the backstop with US$12B disbursed. BCRA buys ~5% of FX volume daily. The Milei fiscal-surplus framework is intact. But the thesis requires April CPI below 3% to validate the disinflation trajectory; a third consecutive 3%+ print extends the drawdown to the 2,606,735 trendline.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
-0.29%
185,147.15
-0.02%
64,866.61
-0.87%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,049,121
-0.29%
2,544.56
+0.40%
59,978.22
-0.31%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,049,121 | -0.29% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
05 Technical Analysis
The Merval closed at the session low — below the double-tested capitulation floor (2,749,913), the lower Bollinger Band (2,781,573), and the 200-day SMA (2,800,941). MACD histogram −11,884, line −24,166 vs signal −12,281 — bearish crossover deepened. RSI fast 40.88 collapsed below slow 44.87, first cross below since February. The ascending trendline at 2,606,735 — 4.8% below — is the line that defines mechanical exhaustion versus a structural break.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— The Merval enters Thursday at 2,738,354 — below the double-tested capitulation floor — with the entire structure waiting on INDEC at 16:00 BA. Momentum (RSI 40.88 below slow 44.87, MACD line −24,166) provides no directional signal independent of the data. The structural thesis (3.6% growth, IMF backstop) remains intact regardless. The trade is binary: sub-3% CPI launches the recovery; 3.5%+ opens the trendline at 2,606,735.
— Related: Tuesday’s Merval · Brazil Ibovespa crash · Colombia COLCAP.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Argentine equities carry elevated political, currency, and capital-controls risk. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Published by The Rio Times.
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