Argentina Stock Market Falls 1.96% as Capitulation Floor Finally Breaks
The S&P Merval fell 1.96% to 2,738,354.49 on Wednesday May 13, 2026, breaking decisively below the double-tested capitulation floor at 2,749,913 that held on May 6 and May 11. The close was at the session low as pre-CPI de-risking accelerated. INDEC releases April CPI Thursday at 16:00 Buenos Aires — the binary that decides whether the Merval retests 2,606,735 or recovers above 2,750K.
The Big Three
The S&P Merval fell 1.96% (−54,638.76 points) to 2,738,354.49 — third-worst 2026 session by percentage. Intraday range 2,734,951–2,807,294, close at session low. The index broke below the double-tested capitulation floor at 2,749,913 that produced reversals on May 6 and May 11.
The technical picture flipped from neutral-pending to confirmed bearish. MACD histogram −11,884 with line −24,166 vs signal −12,281 deepened the crossover. RSI fast 40.88 crossed below slow 44.87 for the first time since February. The 200-DMA at 2,800,941 is now overhead resistance.
INDEC releases April CPI Thursday at 16:00 BA — the binary that decides the next leg. Trajectory: Jan +2.9%, Feb +2.9%, Mar +3.4% (32.6% YoY). Sub-3% launches toward 2,847K Kijun. A third consecutive 3%+ print extends the plateau and opens the trendline at 2,606,735.
03 Key Movers
Winners
Energy was the only sector with positive prints. YPF (YPFD) held firm on Brent above US$109 — the most direct beneficiary of the war-driven oil bid. Pampa Energía (PAMP) and Vista Energy (VIST) traded firm on Vaca Muerta production. Defensive consumer names — Mercado Libre (MELI) ADR equivalents — closed marginally green on low-beta rotation.
Losers
The Milei-trade names led the decline. Banco Macro (BMA), Grupo Galicia (GGAL), and BBVA Argentina (BBAR) — the highest-beta disinflation proxies — sold hard as positioning unwound. Telecom Argentina (TECO2) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) followed. Breadth was the worst of any 2026 session that didn’t break the May 6 / May 11 lows: roughly 85% closed red.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+0.74%
173,371.35
-0.20%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,896.87
+0.10%
3,223,652
+0.74%
2,298.34
+0.00%
55,645.90
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,223,652 | +0.74% | +57.83% | 3,199,935 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,481 | -0.03% | +16.18% | 1,482 | 1,481 | 1,481 | — |
| YPF | 79,200 | +1.67% | +101.02% | 77,900 | 79,300 | 76,700 | 247,703 |
| GGAL | 7,845 | -0.19% | +29.88% | 7,860 | 7,955 | 7,720 | 1,413,066 |
| PAMPA | 5,270 | +1.93% | +47.00% | 5,170 | 5,280 | 5,115 | 642,357 |
| TXAR | 675.00 | +1.66% | +6.26% | 664.00 | 685.00 | 655.00 | 1,540,289 |
| ALUAR | 959.50 | +1.05% | +35.52% | 949.50 | 965.00 | 945.50 | 228,813 |
| TGS | 9,500 | +1.39% | +43.94% | 9,370 | 9,540 | 9,240 | 93,107 |
| CEPU | 2,289 | +1.10% | +56.78% | 2,264 | 2,299 | 2,227 | 249,923 |
| MIRGOR | 17,125 | +1.48% | -19.70% | 16,875 | 17,400 | 16,575 | 3,406 |
| COME | 42.95 | -2.03% | -12.96% | 43.84 | 44.10 | 42.41 | 13,063,026 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,558 | +0.99% | +30.38% | 3,523 | 3,600 | 3,480 | 230,696 |
| BYMA | 294.50 | -1.09% | +54.20% | 297.75 | 302.75 | 291.00 | 2,430,937 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,145 | -0.12% | +78.66% | 4,150 | 4,173 | 4,050 | 80,837 |
| GLOBANT | 32.29 | +0.19% | -62.34% | 32.23 | 32.94 | 31.25 | 1,027,263 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,832 | +1.02% | -22.98% | 1,814 | 1,863 | 1,805 | 293,812 |
§04 · Market Commentary
Wednesday was the technical event the Merval had been setting up for two weeks. The capitulation floor at 2,749,913 — defended twice on May 6 and May 11 — broke decisively, with the close 11,559 points below at the session low and no intraday reversal pattern. Pre-binary de-risking ahead of Thursday’s INDEC CPI was the dominant driver; the wider LatAm risk-off (Brazil −1.80%, Colombia fourth new 2026 low) amplified the move.
The structural overlay still supports patience. World Bank projects 3.6% growth in 2026 (highest in LatAm). The US$20B IMF EFF provides the backstop with US$12B disbursed. BCRA buys ~5% of FX volume daily. The Milei fiscal-surplus framework is intact. But the thesis requires April CPI below 3% to validate the disinflation trajectory; a third consecutive 3%+ print extends the drawdown to the 2,606,735 trendline.
05 Technical Analysis
The Merval closed at the session low — below the double-tested capitulation floor (2,749,913), the lower Bollinger Band (2,781,573), and the 200-day SMA (2,800,941). MACD histogram −11,884, line −24,166 vs signal −12,281 — bearish crossover deepened. RSI fast 40.88 collapsed below slow 44.87, first cross below since February. The ascending trendline at 2,606,735 — 4.8% below — is the line that defines mechanical exhaustion versus a structural break.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Verdict
The Merval enters Thursday at 2,738,354 — below the double-tested capitulation floor — with the entire structure waiting on INDEC at 16:00 BA. Momentum (RSI 40.88 below slow 44.87, MACD line −24,166) provides no directional signal independent of the data. The structural thesis (3.6% growth, IMF backstop) remains intact regardless. The trade is binary: sub-3% CPI launches the recovery; 3.5%+ opens the trendline at 2,606,735.
Related: Tuesday’s Merval · Brazil Ibovespa crash · Colombia COLCAP.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Argentine equities carry elevated political, currency, and capital-controls risk. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Published by The Rio Times.
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