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Weekend Edition · Monday, February 23, 2026
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Covering Feb 21–23
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What matters today
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1 Ethiopia–Eritrea powder keg: ICG warns conflict “could erupt at any time” — Bloomberg reports both sides deploying troops and hardware to northern Tigray; Addis Ababa demanded Eritrean withdrawal Feb 7; Eritrea denies incursion; three-way friction (federal govt vs TDF vs Asmara) overlaps with Sudan war; RSF training-camp exposure and Red Sea port ambitions create multiple ignition points; any slide toward hostilities would roil the volatile Horn of Africa corridor
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2 Nigeria’s banditry crisis explodes: 300+ killed in February alone — Amnesty International; Zamfara’s Tungan Dutse raid (50 dead, women and children abducted); Kebbi’s Lakurawa attacks (~35 killed across 7 villages); Niger State’s Borgu raids (46 killed); Zamfara’s Ware (11 dead, APC destroyed by IED); 100 US soldiers arrive for training mission following December Sokoto airstrike; Tinubu under fire as northwest disintegrates
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3 Gold surges past $5,200/oz to 3-week high; African equity rally broadens — Ghana +15% weekly, Tanzania +41% YTD, Nigeria +25% YTD; African markets weekly closed in broad positive territory; gold at $5,213 intraday (below Jan 29 ATH of $5,595 but rallying on Iran escalation) lifts SA miners into windfall ahead of Wednesday budget; DXY near 4-year lows supports commodity currencies
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4 Somaliland offers US exclusive mineral access and military bases — Minister Khadar Hussein Abdi tells AFP “we are willing to give exclusive access to our minerals”; also open to Israeli military presence after December recognition; lithium, coltan deposits claimed; strategic Gulf of Aden location; Somalia denounces move; CBN MPC decision today/tomorrow (hold at 27% expected)
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01
\nMarket Snapshot
\nClose Feb 21 / Pre-market Feb 23
\nMarket Snapshot
\nClose Feb 21 / Pre-market Feb 23
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| PAIR / INDEX | LEVEL | DAY CHG | SIGNAL |
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| JSE All Share | ~124,200 | +0.3% | ▲ gold miners in windfall territory pre-budget |
| NGX All Share | ~106,800 | +6.95% wk | ▲ +25% YTD; MPC decision today; Ramadan thin |
| GSE (Accra) | — | +15.1% wk | ▲ financials surge; SIC Ins +55%, Ecobank +33% |
| NSE 20 (Nairobi) | ~1,925 | −3.1% wk | ▼ profit-taking; Safaricom & Equity Group lead declines |
| USD/ZAR | ~15.85 | −0.3% | ▲ rand firm; DXY at 4-yr lows; gold cushion |
| USD/NGN | ~1,430 | +0.1% | ▼ naira sideways; MPC decision today; carry trades dominate |
| Brent Crude | $66.38/bbl | +0.6% | ▲ Iran premium sustains; Geneva talks Feb 26 eyed |
| Gold | $5,197/oz | +3.1% | ▲ 3-wk high; SA miners in windfall; central bank demand strong |
| Cobalt | ~$24,800/t | +0.4% | ▲ DRC ceasefire collapsed again; Minembwe fighting ongoing |
| Copper | ~$9,520/t | +0.3% | ▲ weak dollar supports base metals; Lobito corridor demand |
| Cocoa | ~$3,350/t | −0.9% | ▼ surplus glut persists; Ghana farmgate pressure |
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02
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
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\nCritical
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\nCritical
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Ethiopia–Eritrea – War Risk Mounting
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ICG: “could erupt at any time”; Bloomberg: troop deployments to Tigray; Ethiopia demanded withdrawal Feb 7; Eritrea denies; three-way escalation with TDF
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\nCritical
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Nigeria NW – Mass Atrocities
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300+ killed in Feb across 6 states (Amnesty); Zamfara 50 dead, Kebbi ~35, Niger St 46, Ware 11; US troops deployed for training; state disintegration accelerating
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\nTense
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\nTense
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DRC – Ceasefire Violated
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FARDC and M23 accuse each other of violating Angola-proposed truce; Minembwe fighting resumes; Doha talks set to resume; 7th ceasefire failure
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\nTense
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\nTense
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Somaliland – Geopolitical Flashpoint
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Mineral and military base offers to US and Israel; Somalia denounces sovereignty violation; al-Shabaab and Houthi threats; AU backs Mogadishu
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03
\nFast Take
\nFast Take
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SECURITYEthiopia–Eritrea escalation threatens Horn of Africa stability — war risk highest since 2022 ceasefire — ICG Briefing 210 warns three-way friction between Addis Ababa, Tigray’s TDF, and Eritrea could ignite at any time; Bloomberg reports both sides moving troops and equipment to Tigray; overlaps with Sudan conflict, RSF training-camp exposure, and Red Sea port dispute; any outbreak risks dragging in Egypt, UAE, and Gulf states; implications for Djibouti corridor, Ethiopian birr, and regional trade
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MARKETSAfrican equities post strongest week of 2026 — Ghana +15%, Nigeria +7%, Tanzania leads YTD at +41% — African Markets weekly brief: Ghana financials surge (SIC Insurance +55%, Ecobank Ghana +33%); Nigeria Eurobond yields at 4-year lows drive equity inflows; MTN’s $2.2B IHS Towers acquisition approved; JSE lists Japan and Europe ETFs; Mauritius extends trading hours; Kenya profit-taking sole notable drag (−3.1%)
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GEOPOLITICSSomaliland plays mineral-and-base card for US recognition — offers exclusive lithium/coltan access — Minister Khadar Hussein Abdi tells AFP Hargeisa is ready to grant Washington exclusive mineral rights and host military installations; already exploring Israeli military presence; Gulf of Aden strategic corridor; Mogadishu and AU reject move; Trump previously hinted at “moving on the issue”
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04
\nDevelopments to Watch
\nDevelopments to Watch
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HORN OF AFRICAEthiopia–Eritrea Powder Keg: ICG Warns of Imminent Conflict Risk
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\nThe International Crisis Group issued Briefing 210 on February 18 warning that deadly conflict involving Ethiopia’s federal government, the Tigray region, and neighbouring Eritrea “could erupt at any time.” Bloomberg reported on February 19 that both Ethiopia and Eritrea are deploying troops and military equipment to northern Tigray, raising the risk of renewed hostilities in the Horn of Africa.
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\nThe crisis has multiple triggers. Ethiopia formally demanded Eritrea withdraw troops from its territory in a February 7 letter. Eritrea called the allegations “patently false and fabricated.” Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of arming rebel groups including Amhara Fano militias via the TPLF, while Asmara views Addis Ababa’s push for Red Sea port access through Eritrea’s Assab as an existential threat. The TDF’s relationship with the federal government has deteriorated after Addis Ababa moved military units toward the Tigray boundary in early February.
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\nICG notes the crisis overlaps dangerously with the Sudan war. Ethiopia’s alleged RSF training camp in Benishangul-Gumuz — intended to allow RSF fighters into Sudan’s Blue Nile state — has deepened antagonism with Asmara and Mekelle. A Saudi-UAE rift since December 2025 adds further regional instability. A renewed war would be catastrophic: the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict cost hundreds of thousands of lives.
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\nThe International Crisis Group issued Briefing 210 on February 18 warning that deadly conflict involving Ethiopia’s federal government, the Tigray region, and neighbouring Eritrea “could erupt at any time.” Bloomberg reported on February 19 that both Ethiopia and Eritrea are deploying troops and military equipment to northern Tigray, raising the risk of renewed hostilities in the Horn of Africa.
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\nThe crisis has multiple triggers. Ethiopia formally demanded Eritrea withdraw troops from its territory in a February 7 letter. Eritrea called the allegations “patently false and fabricated.” Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of arming rebel groups including Amhara Fano militias via the TPLF, while Asmara views Addis Ababa’s push for Red Sea port access through Eritrea’s Assab as an existential threat. The TDF’s relationship with the federal government has deteriorated after Addis Ababa moved military units toward the Tigray boundary in early February.
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\nICG notes the crisis overlaps dangerously with the Sudan war. Ethiopia’s alleged RSF training camp in Benishangul-Gumuz — intended to allow RSF fighters into Sudan’s Blue Nile state — has deepened antagonism with Asmara and Mekelle. A Saudi-UAE rift since December 2025 adds further regional instability. A renewed war would be catastrophic: the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict cost hundreds of thousands of lives.
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WEST AFRICANigeria NW Carnage: 300+ Killed in February as Banditry Reaches New Intensity
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\nAmnesty International reported Saturday that over 300 people have been killed in February across six northern Nigerian states — Benue, Katsina, Kwara, Kebbi, Niger, and Zamfara. The worst single incident: Tungan Dutse village in Zamfara’s Bukkuyum area, where gunmen on motorcycles killed at least 50 people over a ten-hour assault from Thursday evening into Friday morning, burning buildings and abducting women and children. Lawmaker Hamisu A. Faru said 150+ motorcycles were spotted before the attack; warnings to security forces went unheeded.
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\nDays earlier, Lakurawa militants killed at least 35 in raids across Kebbi’s Arewa area, attacking seven villages including Mamunu, Awashaka, and Kanzo. Separately, at least 46 were killed in raids in Niger State’s Borgu area, including 38 in Konkoso village. In Zamfara’s Tsafe area, bandits killed 11 in Ware and destroyed an army armoured vehicle with an IED. The pattern is consistent: mass motorcycle assaults on rural communities, hours-long sieges, and minimal security response.
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\nNigeria recently expanded US security cooperation. One hundred American soldiers arrived for training missions following the December 25 US airstrike on Sokoto. The US personnel provide intelligence sharing and technical support under Nigerian command. Amnesty warned that the government has “no effective plan” for ending the violence. The 2027 election cycle adds political pressure.
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\nAmnesty International reported Saturday that over 300 people have been killed in February across six northern Nigerian states — Benue, Katsina, Kwara, Kebbi, Niger, and Zamfara. The worst single incident: Tungan Dutse village in Zamfara’s Bukkuyum area, where gunmen on motorcycles killed at least 50 people over a ten-hour assault from Thursday evening into Friday morning, burning buildings and abducting women and children. Lawmaker Hamisu A. Faru said 150+ motorcycles were spotted before the attack; warnings to security forces went unheeded.
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\nDays earlier, Lakurawa militants killed at least 35 in raids across Kebbi’s Arewa area, attacking seven villages including Mamunu, Awashaka, and Kanzo. Separately, at least 46 were killed in raids in Niger State’s Borgu area, including 38 in Konkoso village. In Zamfara’s Tsafe area, bandits killed 11 in Ware and destroyed an army armoured vehicle with an IED. The pattern is consistent: mass motorcycle assaults on rural communities, hours-long sieges, and minimal security response.
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\nNigeria recently expanded US security cooperation. One hundred American soldiers arrived for training missions following the December 25 US airstrike on Sokoto. The US personnel provide intelligence sharing and technical support under Nigerian command. Amnesty warned that the government has “no effective plan” for ending the violence. The 2027 election cycle adds political pressure.
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MARKETSGold Surges Past $5,200 to Three-Week High: SA Miners in Windfall Ahead of Budget Week
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\nGold hit $5,213 per ounce intraday on Monday, its highest level in three weeks, driven by escalating US–Iran tensions and sustained haven demand. The metal remains well below its January 29 all-time high of $5,595 but has rallied over 3% in a week, with central bank buying (PBoC on its 15th consecutive month) providing structural support. The DXY dollar index at approximately 97.4 — near four-year lows — is amplifying commodity-currency strength across Africa.
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\nFor South Africa, the timing is transformative. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivers the 2026 Budget on Wednesday into an environment where gold miners are generating windfall revenues but the R80 billion livestock industry is under FMD emergency. The budget must address: FMD emergency allocation (2M animals already vaccinated, 5M more doses secured by March), debt stabilisation at 78% of GDP, SANDF costs, and R20 billion in unspecified tax increases flagged in the MTBPS. PwC forecasts GDP at 1.2%; Investec sees potential for better-than-MTBPS deficit outcomes. S&P maintains a positive outlook.
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\nThe broader African equity rally is notable. Ghana surged 15% weekly (financials-led: SIC Insurance +55%, Ecobank Ghana +33%). Tanzania leads YTD at 41% in local terms. Nigeria gained 7% weekly, now +25% YTD. MTN Group’s $2.2 billion IHS Towers acquisition strengthens its digital infrastructure position.
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\nGold hit $5,213 per ounce intraday on Monday, its highest level in three weeks, driven by escalating US–Iran tensions and sustained haven demand. The metal remains well below its January 29 all-time high of $5,595 but has rallied over 3% in a week, with central bank buying (PBoC on its 15th consecutive month) providing structural support. The DXY dollar index at approximately 97.4 — near four-year lows — is amplifying commodity-currency strength across Africa.
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\nFor South Africa, the timing is transformative. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivers the 2026 Budget on Wednesday into an environment where gold miners are generating windfall revenues but the R80 billion livestock industry is under FMD emergency. The budget must address: FMD emergency allocation (2M animals already vaccinated, 5M more doses secured by March), debt stabilisation at 78% of GDP, SANDF costs, and R20 billion in unspecified tax increases flagged in the MTBPS. PwC forecasts GDP at 1.2%; Investec sees potential for better-than-MTBPS deficit outcomes. S&P maintains a positive outlook.
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\nThe broader African equity rally is notable. Ghana surged 15% weekly (financials-led: SIC Insurance +55%, Ecobank Ghana +33%). Tanzania leads YTD at 41% in local terms. Nigeria gained 7% weekly, now +25% YTD. MTN Group’s $2.2 billion IHS Towers acquisition strengthens its digital infrastructure position.
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GEOPOLITICSSomaliland Plays the Mineral Card: Offers US Exclusive Access in Recognition Bid
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\nSomaliland’s Minister of the Presidency Khadar Hussein Abdi told AFP on Saturday that the breakaway region is prepared to grant the United States exclusive access to its mineral resources and host American military bases, as it intensifies efforts to secure international recognition beyond Israel’s December 2025 move.
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\nThe strategic calculus is significant. Somaliland officials claim deposits of lithium, coltan, and other critical minerals, though independent geological surveys remain limited. Saudi mining company Kilomass secured an exploration deal in 2024. The territory’s location along the Gulf of Aden — opposite Yemen, where Houthis target Israeli-linked assets — gives it maritime strategic value. Washington already operates a naval base in neighbouring Djibouti.
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\nAbdi also indicated he could not rule out allowing Israel to establish a military presence. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has denounced Israel’s recognition as the “greatest violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.” The AU and most Arab states back Mogadishu. Trump has sent mixed signals — defending Israel’s right to recognise Somaliland while saying the US was unlikely to follow suit, yet hinting he was “preparing to move on the issue.” For markets, the immediate risk is escalation from al-Shabaab, which has threatened retaliation.
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\nSomaliland’s Minister of the Presidency Khadar Hussein Abdi told AFP on Saturday that the breakaway region is prepared to grant the United States exclusive access to its mineral resources and host American military bases, as it intensifies efforts to secure international recognition beyond Israel’s December 2025 move.
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\nThe strategic calculus is significant. Somaliland officials claim deposits of lithium, coltan, and other critical minerals, though independent geological surveys remain limited. Saudi mining company Kilomass secured an exploration deal in 2024. The territory’s location along the Gulf of Aden — opposite Yemen, where Houthis target Israeli-linked assets — gives it maritime strategic value. Washington already operates a naval base in neighbouring Djibouti.
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\nAbdi also indicated he could not rule out allowing Israel to establish a military presence. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has denounced Israel’s recognition as the “greatest violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.” The AU and most Arab states back Mogadishu. Trump has sent mixed signals — defending Israel’s right to recognise Somaliland while saying the US was unlikely to follow suit, yet hinting he was “preparing to move on the issue.” For markets, the immediate risk is escalation from al-Shabaab, which has threatened retaliation.
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CENTRAL AFRICADRC Ceasefire Violations Deepen as Both Sides Trade Accusations
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\nThe Angola-proposed ceasefire that was supposed to take effect February 18 has collapsed into mutual recrimination. The Congolese army accused M23 of attacking positions in North and South Kivu on February 18–19, claiming Rwandan special forces participated. M23 refused to recognise the Angolan initiative, insisting it is solely committed to the Qatar-mediated Doha process. The Wazalendo militia also accused M23 of violations.
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\nFighting resumed around Minembwe in the South Kivu highlands, where FARDC, Burundian forces, and Wazalendo are battling M23-aligned Twirwaneho fighters. On the diplomatic front, Doha talks are reportedly set to resume, with two sides having signed ceasefire monitoring terms of reference in early February. The UN acting force commander visited M23-controlled Goma to prepare monitoring deployment but stressed the need for security guarantees before reconnaissance flights.
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\nA separate digital sovereignty crisis has emerged: MTN Rwanda was accused of illegally operating telecom infrastructure in M23-held Goma and Rutshuru. M23 announced plans to build its own telecommunications network in occupied territory. Seven million people are now internally displaced — one of the world’s largest displacement crises.
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\nThe Angola-proposed ceasefire that was supposed to take effect February 18 has collapsed into mutual recrimination. The Congolese army accused M23 of attacking positions in North and South Kivu on February 18–19, claiming Rwandan special forces participated. M23 refused to recognise the Angolan initiative, insisting it is solely committed to the Qatar-mediated Doha process. The Wazalendo militia also accused M23 of violations.
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\nFighting resumed around Minembwe in the South Kivu highlands, where FARDC, Burundian forces, and Wazalendo are battling M23-aligned Twirwaneho fighters. On the diplomatic front, Doha talks are reportedly set to resume, with two sides having signed ceasefire monitoring terms of reference in early February. The UN acting force commander visited M23-controlled Goma to prepare monitoring deployment but stressed the need for security guarantees before reconnaissance flights.
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\nA separate digital sovereignty crisis has emerged: MTN Rwanda was accused of illegally operating telecom infrastructure in M23-held Goma and Rutshuru. M23 announced plans to build its own telecommunications network in occupied territory. Seven million people are now internally displaced — one of the world’s largest displacement crises.
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05
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
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| COUNTRY | EVENT | ASSESSMENT |
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| South Africa | Budget Feb 25; debt 78% GDP; gold windfall; FMD disaster; S&P positive outlook | Budget could beat MTBPS projections; SARS R24B under target offset by commodity windfall; FMD allocation critical test |
| Nigeria | CBN MPC today; NGX +25% YTD; 300+ killed in NW; Eurobond yields 4-yr low | Markets pricing crude over security crisis; hawkish hold at 27% expected; ₦51.5T SDF liquidity paradox unchanged |
| Ethiopia | Troop deployments to Tigray; ICG war warning; RSF camp exposure; birr under pressure | Conflict risk premium rising; FDI pipeline frozen; IMF $3.4B programme at risk if hostilities resume |
| Ghana | GSE +15% weekly; financials surge; +35% YTD local currency; debt restructuring on track | Post-restructuring rally gaining momentum; SIC Insurance +55% weekly; banking sector re-rating |
| DRC | Ceasefire violations; Doha talks resuming; 7M displaced; cobalt firm; US lithium deal | Seventh ceasefire failure; critical mineral geopolitics sustains interest; sovereign assessment impossible |
| Kenya | Equity market profit-taking (−3.1% wk); Eurobond buyback settling Mar 3; Airways cancels NY flights | Technical correction after strong run; liability management on track; $1B DFC swap still in play |
| Somaliland | Offers US exclusive mineral/military access; Israel deal pending; al-Shabaab threats | Geopolitical wildcard; mineral claims unverified; recognition push risks destabilising Horn corridor |
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06
\nPower Players
\nKey figures
\nPower Players
\nKey figures
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| NAME | ROLE | ACTION |
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| Khadar Hussein Abdi | Minister of Presidency, Somaliland | Offered US exclusive mineral access and military bases; open to Israeli presence; “we will agree on something” |
| Enoch Godongwana | Finance Minister, South Africa | Budget Wed; must balance FMD emergency, gold windfall, R20B tax gap, debt at 78% GDP |
| Abiy Ahmed | Prime Minister, Ethiopia | Demanded Eritrean withdrawal; troop movements to Tigray; pushing for Red Sea access through Assab |
| Isaias Afwerki | President, Eritrea | Denied incursion; “we know how to defend our nation”; counter-deployments to border area |
| Amnesty International | Human Rights Organisation | Documented 300+ killed in Nigeria’s north in Feb; called on Tinubu to act; “no effective plan” |
| Olayemi Cardoso | CBN Governor, Nigeria | 304th MPC meeting today; consensus: hawkish hold at 27%; ₦51.5T SDF paradox; OMO mop-up expected |
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07
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
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| JURISDICTION | MEASURE | STATUS / IMPACT |
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| South Africa | Budget 2026/27 (Wed Feb 25) | R20B tax increase flagged; FMD emergency allocation; debt stabilisation plan; FATF grey-list exit momentum |
| Nigeria | CBN MPC Rate Decision (Feb 23–24) | Hawkish hold at 27% MPR expected; carry-trade dynamics; OMO mop-up to address ₦51.5T SDF |
| South Africa | FMD vaccination campaign & State of Disaster enforcement | 2M animals vaccinated; 5M more doses by March; Dollvet (Turkey) oil-based vaccine approved; digital tracking system |
| Mauritius | Stock Exchange extends trading hours; T+2 settlement | Reforms to enhance market attractiveness; aligns with international standards |
| DRC | Rubaya tantalum mine offered to US in minerals pact | Mine under M23 control; tests US willingness to engage in conflict-zone mineral extraction |
| Somaliland | Exclusive mineral/military offers to US and Israel | Unrecognised by AU/UN; geological surveys lacking; sovereignty dispute with Mogadishu intensifies |
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08
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
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| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
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| Feb 23–24 | CBN 304th MPC Meeting (Abuja) | Rate decision: hawkish hold at 27% expected; naira direction; carry-trade implications |
| Feb 23–24 | African Markets Conference concludes (Cape Town) | First institutional test of geopolitical risk premium; sovereign spread guidance for 2026 |
| Feb 25 | South Africa 2026/27 Budget Speech (2pm SAST) | FMD allocation; R20B tax gap; debt stabilisation; gold windfall revenue; rand and bond market reaction |
| Feb 26 | US–Iran talks (Geneva); Kenya Eurobond buyback closes | Iran outcome impacts oil/gold → African fiscal assumptions; Kenya settlement Mar 3 |
| Mar 2 | IAEA Board meets (Iran nuclear) | Escalation risk if no progress; oil price premium for Nigeria/Angola; Egypt import-cost exposure |
| Mar 2026 | Senegal Eurobond repayment (~$485M) | Largest sovereign test of year; debt 132% GDP; IMF programme frozen; WAEMU stability |
| Mar 2026 | DRC–M23 Doha peace talks resume | Remaining 6 pillars of November 2025 framework; ceasefire verification mechanism deployment |
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09
\nBottom Line
\nBottom Line
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\nThe week opens with Africa’s equity markets riding the strongest momentum of 2026 into a wall of structural risk. Ghana’s 15% weekly surge and Tanzania’s 41% YTD rally show that African risk appetite is alive and broadening, no longer a Nigeria-South Africa duopoly. Gold back above $5,200 — still well below its January 29 peak of $5,595 but rallying hard — puts South African miners in windfall territory at the exact moment Finance Minister Godongwana must deliver a budget that convinces markets he can stabilise debt at 78% of GDP while funding an FMD emergency, absorbing SANDF costs, and filling a R20 billion tax hole. The gold dividend gives him breathing room — but the FMD vaccination campaign (2 million animals done, 12 million to go) is testing whether emergency procurement can move at the speed the crisis demands.
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\nThe security picture is the market’s blind spot. The International Crisis Group does not casually warn that war “could erupt at any time” — Briefing 210 on the Ethiopia–Eritrea–Tigray triangle is the most alarming assessment of the Horn of Africa since the 2022 ceasefire. Troop deployments to Tigray from both sides, the RSF training camp entangling Addis Ababa in the Sudan war, and Abiy Ahmed’s push for Red Sea access through Eritrea’s Assab port create multiple ignition points. Any outbreak would overlap with the Sudan genocide, destabilise the Djibouti trade corridor, and risk drawing in Egypt and the Gulf states.
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\nNigeria’s northwest carnage — 300+ dead in February according to Amnesty International — is accelerating despite the arrival of 100 US military trainers. The gap between the NGX’s +25% YTD rally and the Zamfara killing fields is the starkest illustration of Africa’s two-speed reality. Meanwhile, Somaliland’s mineral-and-base offer to Washington adds a new geopolitical variable to an already volatile Horn, and the DRC’s seventh failed ceasefire keeps the world’s largest displacement crisis churning with no political solution in sight. For the CBN, meeting today with ₦51.5 trillion sitting idle while SMEs starve for credit and bandits overrun the northwest, the question is not what rate to set but whether monetary policy has any relevance at all to the country’s most urgent crises.
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\nThe week opens with Africa’s equity markets riding the strongest momentum of 2026 into a wall of structural risk. Ghana’s 15% weekly surge and Tanzania’s 41% YTD rally show that African risk appetite is alive and broadening, no longer a Nigeria-South Africa duopoly. Gold back above $5,200 — still well below its January 29 peak of $5,595 but rallying hard — puts South African miners in windfall territory at the exact moment Finance Minister Godongwana must deliver a budget that convinces markets he can stabilise debt at 78% of GDP while funding an FMD emergency, absorbing SANDF costs, and filling a R20 billion tax hole. The gold dividend gives him breathing room — but the FMD vaccination campaign (2 million animals done, 12 million to go) is testing whether emergency procurement can move at the speed the crisis demands.
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\nThe security picture is the market’s blind spot. The International Crisis Group does not casually warn that war “could erupt at any time” — Briefing 210 on the Ethiopia–Eritrea–Tigray triangle is the most alarming assessment of the Horn of Africa since the 2022 ceasefire. Troop deployments to Tigray from both sides, the RSF training camp entangling Addis Ababa in the Sudan war, and Abiy Ahmed’s push for Red Sea access through Eritrea’s Assab port create multiple ignition points. Any outbreak would overlap with the Sudan genocide, destabilise the Djibouti trade corridor, and risk drawing in Egypt and the Gulf states.
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\nNigeria’s northwest carnage — 300+ dead in February according to Amnesty International — is accelerating despite the arrival of 100 US military trainers. The gap between the NGX’s +25% YTD rally and the Zamfara killing fields is the starkest illustration of Africa’s two-speed reality. Meanwhile, Somaliland’s mineral-and-base offer to Washington adds a new geopolitical variable to an already volatile Horn, and the DRC’s seventh failed ceasefire keeps the world’s largest displacement crisis churning with no political solution in sight. For the CBN, meeting today with ₦51.5 trillion sitting idle while SMEs starve for credit and bandits overrun the northwest, the question is not what rate to set but whether monetary policy has any relevance at all to the country’s most urgent crises.
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Africa Intelligence Brief
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Weekend Edition · Monday, February 23, 2026
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This is part of The Rio Times’ coverage of African business and economic developments for the global financial community.
Related: Brazil Morning Call | Global Economy Briefing