Relief Rally Lifts Merval 1.5% While Argentine Peso Stages Broadest Advance in Months

The Merval today closed at 2,977,118 points, up 1.51% or 44,281 points, decisively snapping a seven-session losing streak that had wiped 9.6% off the index since January 28. The session opened near 2,934,322 and built steadily through the afternoon, touching an intraday high of 3,001,265 — briefly reclaiming the psychologically important three-million handle — before pulling back into the close. Argentine ADRs in New York mirrored the recovery, buoyed by a broad Wall Street snapback that saw the Dow surge 2.5% to a record high and Nvidia rebound over 7%.

The Argentine peso strengthened across all market segments in a sign of easing pressure on the foreign exchange complex. The blue dollar fell AR$20 to AR$1,435 for the sale — its lowest reading since December 5 — extending a slide that has taken it AR$95 below where it opened 2026 at AR$1,530. Critically, the official-blue brecha turned negative at roughly −1%, an unusual configuration that suggests the parallel market sees no devaluation risk in the near term. The wholesale rate dropped AR$10 to AR$1,432, widening the gap to the BCRA’s flotation band ceiling of AR$1,572.50 to a comfortable 9.9%, the widest margin in four months.

“Sovereign bonds in dollars — both Globals and Bonares — gained 0.4% on average, pushing country risk down six points to 512 basis points. The BCRA continued its reserve accumulation drive, purchasing $51 million on the MULC to bring its 2026 total to $1.47 billion. Meanwhile, the market awaits INDEC’s January CPI report on February 10, with private forecasts clustering between 2.3% and 2.6% — a potential further deceleration from December’s 2.8%.

The Merval’s daily RSI readings at 54.09 and 43.36 reflect a neutral-to-oversold posture after the seven-day skid, with the dual reading suggesting the bounce may have further legs before reaching overbought territory. Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud and the Kijun-sen at 2,843,481, which served as the key support level that held through the sell-off. The MACD histogram is flattening near the zero line — the signal at 20,477 versus the MACD line at 123 — indicating that bearish momentum is exhausting and a bullish crossover may be developing.

On the USD/ARS daily, the pair is trading at the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud near 1,431.49, with both RSI readings firmly below 50 (45.92 and 40.10), confirming peso strength. The MACD is decisively bearish at −1.685 against its signal at −0.249, supporting the view that the peso’s rally has momentum. The lower Bollinger Band at 1,422.29 is the immediate downside target; a break below it would push the pair toward the structural trendline and 200-day SMA near 1,347. The brecha cambiaria is at its most compressed since mid-2024, with the blue dollar trading below the official rate — a historically bullish signal for peso stability.

The immediate catalyst is INDEC’s January CPI release on Tuesday, February 10, where a print at or below the 2.5% consensus would reinforce the disinflation narrative and support the BCRA’s current flotation band framework, which now adjusts monthly to the last inflation reading rather than the prior fixed 1% crawl. Earnings season picks up next week with IRSA reporting February 7, Cresud on February 11, and Bioceres on February 12 — all offering reads on the agricultural and real estate sectors. MercadoLibre reports February 20, Vista Energy on February 26, and the critical bank trio of Galicia, BBVA Argentina, and Pampa Energía on March 5.

On the macro front, Argentina faces $4.7 billion in total IMF maturities this year after completing the first $880 million SDR payment in early February. The IMF mission’s arrival in Buenos Aires this week signals continued engagement on the next disbursement tranche, which remains critical for reserve accumulation. Politically, the Milei government’s strengthened legislative position following October’s mid-term elections provides a runway for privatizations and deregulation, but the YPF expropriation trial appeal in New York (a potential $16 billion liability) and Vaca Muerta Sur’s execution timeline remain the primary structural risks. Oil’s stabilization near $67 per barrel ($67) offers a floor for the energy-heavy Merval, though global tech volatility — the Nasdaq ended the week down 1.9% despite Friday’s rally — continues to transmit risk to Argentina’s high-beta equity market.

Verdict

The Merval’s relief rally and the peso’s drop to multi-month lows against the dollar paint a constructive short-term picture, but the index remains nearly 10% below its January 28 all-time high, with MACD momentum still flat and the 3-million level acting as overhead resistance. Tuesday’s CPI print is the binary event: a number at or below 2.5% could catalyze a push through 3,013,045 and reignite the path toward the highs, while an upside surprise would test the Kijun-sen at 2,843,481 and potentially reopen the brecha.

Deep Dive

• The Banco Master Scandal: Brazil’s Largest Bank Fraud Explained
• Brazil Tax Reform 2026: Complete Guide