With or without rain by late May, Brazil harvests will be disrupted; sugar cane down 30%

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Professor Paulo Sentelhas, head of Agrometeorology at Esalq/USP, is often more cautious than professional meteorologists when forecasting over 10, 15 days. He says that there is a chance of rain from Paraná state upward only in late May, early June.

Until then, rain or no rain, all annual, perennial, and semi-perennial crops are expected to experience severe productivity losses, putting pressure on expected crop volumes.

Rainfall virtually ceased in March, and in April, there was no rain at all. As a result, soil water retention improved from December to February – “but with some regions under irregularity and lower volumes” – has been exhausted. After the second semester in 2020, that had already dried up reserves.

Among the most damaged crops in the Southeast, the main one is sugarcane by rank of importance. “Although in some places the loss of productivity will reach 5%, in a substantial portion of crops, it will reach up to 30%,” says the professor.

According to analyses of the sugar-energy market in the full harvest season, average production losses range between 6% and 10%.

Coffee and orange are expected to suffer drastic reductions, particularly the former, which is now starting to be harvested. The latter is coming out of a shortfall harvest and should start the next one in a similar situation.

For the Midwestern regions, where winter corn prevails at this time – in addition to some sugarcane in the South of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul – the scenario is worrying. The grain is Brazil’s second main commodity in production and prices and planting in the United States, including the lower Brazilian volume.

Regarding the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maps, the basis for projections by national meteorological institutes, Professor Sentelhas believes that only the South of the country will not be affected by the atmospheric blockade that prevents the arrival of cold fronts, as in the Southeast and Midwest.

Rio Grande do Sul state will experience good rainfall volumes because autumn and winters are typically rainier than the traditional drought in upper Brazil.

And from the Cascavel region in western Paraná to Mato Grosso do Sul, conditions are also similar to those experienced in the Southeast.

If NOAA is right, there will only be some rain in late May.