USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for April 14, 2026

1 The most concentrated financial sector reporting day of the year is underway — JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and BlackRock are all releasing Q1 2026 results today, with Goldman having reported Monday, and JPMorgan’s traders already posting the highest-ever quarterly revenue at $11.6 billion (up 20%), though NII guidance was trimmed in what analysts are calling a “beat and retreat” that confirms the US economy is currently resilient but the margins for error are thinning

2 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened an eight-point approval lead over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, with Liberals at 41% and CPC at 38% — Carney’s Davos speech rebuking “predatory and unreliable great economic powers” drove an eight-point approval jump to 60%, while Poilievre faces a leadership review in Calgary with 52% disapproval nationally, and Trump has said it’s “easier to deal with a Liberal”

3 Early-stage mortgage delinquencies in the United States have surged 30%, deepening the K-shaped divergence between elite borrowers and the rest — Bank of America reported a remarkably low 0.99% delinquency rate, but the broader market is spiking, with subprime and near-prime lenders most vulnerable, and today’s first Apple Card integration data from JPMorgan will reveal whether the K-shape extends to the tech-savvy credit portfolio acquired from Goldman Sachs

4 Canada’s housing market continues to defy correction forecasts — CMHC is projecting record-high purchase prices and persistently low vacancy rates as supply fails to meet demand across the country, even as weaker population growth dampens the rental segment, with RBC’s national affordability measure improving to approximately 53% from a peak of 63% in 2023 but still far above healthy levels

5 Canada’s population has gone flat for the first time since 1946 after the federal government reversed its immigration policy — Q3 recorded the largest and second-ever decline in Canada’s population going back to the post-war period, with year-over-year growth expected at zero in 2026, well below the pre-pandemic average of 1.1% and dramatically below the nearly 3% growth in 2023-2024 that overwhelmed the economy’s absorptive capacity

IMF Cut global growth to 3.1% today (from 3.3% January) — “major test” for global economy, downside risks dominate, oil demand to fall 80K bbl/day, Spring Meetings all week in Washington

GASOLINE EIA forecasts April peak at $4.30/gal, diesel at $5.80/gal — 171 crude carriers heading to US Gulf Coast as global flows redirect around Hormuz, but US exports light grades only, can’t replace Gulf crude

PRIVATE $ Private credit $1.8 trillion market — Dimon warned losses “could exceed expectations,” Goldman Q1 will expose sector, Powell says no systemic risk but Fed “watching carefully,” outside regulated banking

CUSMA US targeting streaming, dairy, auto rules in CUSMA review — tariffs on lumber, steel, aluminum active, investment frozen, 90% of Canada’s US exports were CUSMA-exempt, any country can opt out with 6 months’ notice

DRAFT Automatic Selective Service registration for all American men moving through Congress — no opt-in, bipartisan support, comes amid Iran war manpower concerns and military recruitment challenges

QATAR Ras Laffan LNG facility damage = 5-year repair timeline — 17% of Qatari export capacity, two liquefaction trains hit March 18, Qatar exported 20% of global LNG through Hormuz, force majeure declared

EARNINGS • UNITED STATES

Q1 Earnings Super Tuesday: JPMorgan Record $11.6B, Wells Fargo, Citi, BlackRock

What happened: The most concentrated financial sector reporting day of Q1 2026 is underway. JPMorgan Chase’s traders posted the highest-ever quarterly revenue at $11.6 billion in the first quarter — up 20% from a year earlier, with both equities and fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) beating expectations. The record exceeded JPMorgan’s previous best by almost $2 billion. However, the bank trimmed its net interest income (NII) guidance, creating what analysts described as a “beat and retreat” — strong current numbers paired with a sober forward outlook. Wells Fargo, Citigroup and BlackRock are also reporting today, with Goldman Sachs having released Monday. Bank of America follows Wednesday. The S&P 500 is expected to deliver its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, but tariff volatility and the oil shock are overriding fundamental beats in the short term. Most major bank stocks have been posting losses in 2026, with Wells Fargo the clear laggard at −8% year-to-date. Jamie Dimon’s commentary emphasised geopolitical risk as “impossible to model with precision” and warned of a “stagflationary shadow.”

So what: JPMorgan’s record trading revenue is the signature of crisis profiteering — and that is not a criticism but a structural observation. When oil prices whipsaw between $80 and $120, when currencies move on blockade announcements, when bond yields spike on inflation data, trading desks that can navigate the volatility extract enormous profits. The $11.6 billion figure tells you that the volatility regime is generating more trading opportunity than any period in the bank’s history — including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. But the trimmed NII guidance is the counterpoint: the lending side of banking is tightening, margins for error are shrinking, and the “era of easy, interest-rate-driven earnings growth” is concluding. The credit card rate cap proposal at 10% adds a populist regulatory threat to consumer banking revenue. For Latin American investors, the earnings signal is mixed but actionable: US banks are structurally strong (record trading) but the consumer lending environment is deteriorating (NII trim, delinquency spike), which means that EM capital flows will continue from the trading-driven profits but the consumer-driven component is at risk.

POLITICS • CANADA

Carney Leads Poilievre: Liberals 41% vs CPC 38% — Anti-Trump Positioning Works

What happened: Angus Reid polling shows Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened a meaningful lead over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, with vote intention at 41% Liberal versus 38% CPC. Carney’s approval rating jumped eight points to 60% following his Davos speech in which he rebuked “predatory and unreliable great economic powers” — language universally understood as directed at Trump’s America. Poilievre holds only 35% approval against 52% disapproval and faces a leadership review in Calgary. His persistent favourability gap between men and women remains a structural weakness: men over 34 are his strongest demographic, while women remain broadly critical. Trump himself contributed to Poilievre’s difficulties by telling Fox News that “the Conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine” and that it’s “easier to deal actually with a Liberal.” The Liberals’ first parliamentary announcement was the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit — a boosted GST credit targeting cost-of-living concerns, which Canadians select as their top issue by a wide margin.

So what: Carney’s political strategy is the mirror image of Starmer’s across the Atlantic: position yourself as the adult in the room while Trump generates chaos, and let the contrast do the work. The Davos speech was calibrated to appeal to Canadian nationalism, international credibility and anti-Trump sentiment simultaneously — and the eight-point approval jump proves it landed. Poilievre’s problem is that the Trump association, which was an asset when Canadian voters wanted disruption, has become a liability now that Trump is associated with a war that’s raising Canadian energy prices. Trump’s comment that it’s “easier to deal with a Liberal” was either deliberate sabotage or characteristic carelessness — either way, it forces Poilievre to distance himself from the American president while his base demands alignment. The CPC leadership review in Calgary is the pressure test: if Poilievre survives, he will need to fundamentally reposition; if he doesn’t, the Conservatives enter the next election with a new leader and a narrowing window. For Latin American investors, Carney’s Canada is more predictable, more multilateral and more open to non-US trade diversification than a Poilievre government would be — which has direct implications for Canadian trade agreements with Latin American economies.

ECONOMY • UNITED STATES

30% Surge in Early-Stage Mortgage Delinquencies — K-Shape Deepening

What happened: The broader US mortgage market has seen a 30% surge in early-stage delinquencies even as elite institutions report pristine credit quality. Bank of America posted a remarkably low 0.99% delinquency rate in early 2026 — among the lowest in the industry — but lenders focused on subprime and near-prime borrowers are seeing accelerating stress. The divergence reinforces the K-shaped narrative that has defined the US economy since the pandemic: top-tier borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages, diversified income and strong credit scores are weathering the oil shock comfortably, while lower-income households face the compound pressure of $4.30 gasoline, rising grocery prices and credit card rates averaging 23.79%. Today’s JPMorgan results include the first integration data from the Apple Card portfolio acquired from Goldman Sachs — the credit quality comparison between Apple Card’s tech-savvy, generally affluent user base and JPMorgan’s traditional consumer borrowers will signal whether the K-shape extends to credit product segmentation. Outstanding US credit card debt stands at $1.23 trillion.

So what: The 30% delinquency surge is the domestic signal that matters most for the real economy. Record bank trading profits and pristine BofA delinquency rates describe one America — the America of prime borrowers, diversified portfolios and institutional resilience. The delinquency surge describes another America — the one where $4.30 gasoline consumes a meaningful portion of take-home pay, where the credit card balance at 23.79% APR is the bridge between paychecks, and where a single missed mortgage payment begins a cascade of late fees, credit score damage and reduced access to future borrowing. Michigan’s 47.6 consumer confidence reading — the worst in the survey’s 72-year history — captures the sentiment of this second America. The 65% who expect recession are not Wall Street strategists making hedged probabilistic assessments; they are consumers describing their lived experience. For Latin American investors, the K-shape has a direct transmission mechanism: if the bottom half of the US consumer retrenches — fewer restaurant meals, less discretionary travel, reduced retail spending — the companies that serve that population see revenue compression, which flows through to supply chain partners including Latin American exporters of food, textiles and consumer goods.

ECONOMY • CANADA

Canada Housing: CMHC Forecasts Record Prices — Supply Still Not Meeting Demand

What happened: The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is projecting record-high home purchase prices and persistently low vacancy rates as housing supply continues to fall short of demand across the country. RBC’s national aggregate affordability measure has improved to approximately 53% — a meaningful improvement from the peak of more than 63% in 2023 — but still far above levels that would be considered healthy for first-time buyers. The improvement has been driven primarily by lower debt payments on non-mortgage consumer debt and strong financial market gains, rather than by any fundamental correction in purchase prices. Weaker population growth is dampening demand in the rental segment specifically, but ownership markets remain structurally undersupplied. The housing issue is Canadians’ second-highest concern after cost of living, and it featured prominently in both Liberal and Conservative platforms, with Carney pledging to boost the Housing Accelerator Fund and Poilievre promising to crack down on tax loopholes affecting property investment.

So what: Canada’s housing market is the structural challenge that no policy intervention has been able to resolve. Record-high prices in the face of slowing population growth and weakening labour markets is the signal that the supply deficit is so deep that even reduced demand cannot close the gap. The affordability improvement from 63% to 53% is real but misleading — it was driven by financial market gains (which are now at risk from the oil shock and global uncertainty) and lower non-mortgage debt payments (which could reverse if the credit card rate cap fails and rates remain at 23.79%). The political dimension is that housing unaffordability generates a specific kind of voter anger that transfers directly to the incumbent regardless of policy effort: Carney inherited the problem from Trudeau, but he will own it if prices continue rising under his watch. For Latin American investors, Canada’s housing dynamics are relevant because they constrain domestic consumption (high mortgage payments reduce disposable income for everything else) and create vulnerability to any external shock that weakens the employment or financial market gains that have been masking the underlying unaffordability.

DEMOGRAPHICS • CANADA

Canada Population Flat — Largest Decline Since 1946 — Immigration Reversal

What happened: Canada’s population trajectory has reversed dramatically after the federal government changed its immigration policy. Q3 recorded the largest and second-ever decline in Canada’s population going back to 1946. Year-over-year population growth is expected to be flat in 2026 — below the pre-pandemic average of 1.1% and dramatically below the nearly 3% growth experienced in 2023 and 2024, which overwhelmed the economy’s absorptive capacity including housing, healthcare and infrastructure. The new non-permanent resident targets should result in a small population decline in 2026, followed by subdued growth in 2027 and 2028. The labour force is projected to be approximately 0.2% smaller by year-end 2026. TD Economics notes that even slower job creation should be sufficient to keep the unemployment rate broadly stable given the shrinking worker pool, before it begins to edge lower in 2027.

So what: Canada’s demographic U-turn is one of the most significant policy reversals in the developed world. For three years (2022-2024), Canada pursued the most aggressive population growth strategy of any G7 nation — nearly 3% annual growth, driven by temporary residents, international students and immigration. The strategy overwhelmed housing supply, strained healthcare, and generated a political backlash that contributed to Trudeau’s departure. The correction has been equally dramatic: flat growth in a country that depends on immigration for economic expansion is not a soft landing but a demographic shock. The labour market implications are paradoxical: a shrinking labour force stabilises unemployment even in a weak economy, which could mask underlying economic weakness from standard indicators. The housing market, however, may benefit: lower population growth should eventually ease rental pressure, though ownership prices remain elevated due to the structural supply deficit. For Latin American investors, Canada’s immigration reversal has a direct implication: the pipeline of Latin American workers, students and immigrants to Canada that had been expanding rapidly is now contracting, which affects remittance flows, educational partnerships and the long-term composition of Canada’s consumer market.

Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan CEO) — Record $11.6B trading revenue. NII trimmed. “Stagflationary shadow.” Geopolitical risk “impossible to model.” Apple Card integration. Credit cap threat. The single most important voice on Wall Street today

Mark Carney (Canada PM) — 60% approval. 41% vote intention. Anti-Trump positioning working. Davos speech resonated. Groceries benefit launched. Housing Accelerator pledged. Inherited flat population and CUSMA crisis. Minority parliament = election always close

Pierre Poilievre (CPC Leader) — 35% approval / 52% disapproval. Leadership review Calgary. Gender gap persistent. Trump: “stupidly no friend of mine.” Needs fundamental repositioning. Tax haven crackdown platform. Housing = “only 6 houses” liability

Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) — Chair term May. Governor term 2028. Warsh delayed. “Near-term inflation expectations have risen.” Private credit “no systemic risk” but watching. Most constrained Fed chair since Volcker. One cut in dot plot, market prices none

Kevin Warsh (Fed Chair Nominee) — Hearing delayed by paperwork. Goldman expects dovish if confirmed. Views AI productivity gains as disinflationary. Former governor 2006-2011. Would advocate reduced balance sheet. Uncertain timeline creates institutional vacuum

Credit Card Rate Cap: Trump proposal 10%. Hawley-Sanders S.381. $1.23T outstanding. Average rate 23.79%. Could save $100B annually. American Bankers Association: would “drive consumers to loan sharks.” CFPB largely nonfunctional. Capital One-Discover merger approved.

CUSMA Review: Formal talks since January. US targeting streaming, dairy, auto rules. 90% of Canada exports CUSMA-exempt. Any country can exit with 6 months’ notice. Extension discussions may dominate headlines but opt-out clause is the real risk. Outcome reshapes North American trade for decade.

Basel III Endgame: Softened capital requirements allowing more shareholder returns. But populist credit card cap = opposite pressure. Regulatory tug-of-war: fewer capital constraints vs potential revenue caps. Market weighing both.

Automatic Draft Registration: Bill moving through Congress. All American men automatically registered for Selective Service. No opt-in. Bipartisan. Amid Iran war manpower concerns and military recruitment shortfalls. Political sensitivity in midterm year.

APR 14 JPMorgan + Wells Fargo + Citigroup + BlackRock Q1 earnings — most concentrated bank day

APR 14 IMF World Economic Outlook — 3.1% global growth, US downgrade, Spring Meetings begin

APR 15 Bank of America + Morgan Stanley Q1 earnings — consumer banking health signal

APR 16 TSMC + Netflix + PepsiCo Q1 — semiconductor, streaming, consumer staples cross-section

APR 30 US March PCE — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, final pre-chair-transition data

MAY Powell chair term expires — Warsh hearing delayed, timeline uncertain, institutional vacuum

Today’s USA & Canada intelligence brief is the brief where Wall Street’s record profits met Main Street’s record pessimism. JPMorgan’s $11.6 billion in trading revenue — the highest quarterly figure in the bank’s history — tells you that crisis volatility is the most profitable trading environment in modern finance. The trimmed NII guidance and 30% surge in early-stage mortgage delinquencies tell you that the consumer economy underneath those trading profits is deteriorating. Michigan’s 47.6 consumer confidence — the worst in 72 years — and $4.30 gasoline tell you that American households are living in a different economy than the one JPMorgan’s trading floor sees. The K-shape is no longer a metaphor; it is a structural division between an America that profits from volatility and an America that is consumed by it.

North of the border, Carney’s political fortunes are the mirror of Canada’s structural challenges. His anti-Trump positioning has driven approval to 60% and opened a three-point vote intention lead — but the economy he governs is freezing in place. Population flat for the first time since 1946. Business investment at 0.6%. CUSMA review paralyzing cross-border planning. Housing at record prices that no policy has been able to correct. The immigration reversal that solved the political problem of overwhelmed services has created an economic problem of a shrinking labour force. Canada’s 2026 is the year of policy contradictions: lower population growth eases housing pressure but reduces economic output; anti-Trump rhetoric wins votes but complicates the trade relationship that generates 75% of Canadian exports.

For Latin American investors, this USA & Canada intelligence brief delivers three actionable signals. First, JPMorgan’s record trading revenue confirms that US financial institutions are structurally sound — the fortress balance sheets held — which means EM capital flows from institutional investors will continue. Second, the 30% delinquency surge and $4.30 gasoline mean that the US consumer is retrenching at the margin, which reduces demand for Latin American exports in consumer-facing categories. Third, Carney’s Canada is pivoting toward multilateral trade diversification and away from US dependence — a structural shift that creates direct opportunities for Latin American economies to deepen trade with Canada outside the CUSMA framework. The earnings call has already delivered its verdict: the banks are fine. The question is whether the economy beneath them is fine too. Michigan’s 47.6 says it is not.