A recent analysis involving 12 experts suggests a notable increase in global raw sugar prices, expected to climb nearly 20% by 2024.
This projection is linked to a forecasted deficit in the sugar market for the upcoming season.
Predicted year-end prices: 24.5 cents/pound, a modest increase from current levels, significantly surpassing last year’s figures.
In Brazil’s central-south region, a key sugar production area, output is likely to remain high despite a slight dip in sugarcane yield.
Here, a preference for sugar production over ethanol is evident. In contrast, foreseeing a decrease in output from India, another major sugar producer.
The reliance on a few supply sources is causing tension in the sugar market.
Anticipated shift from global surplus to deficit due to Brazil’s inability to meet demand and stagnant production in India.
The expected 2024–25 season deficit of 700,000 metric tons contrasts with the current season’s 500,000 metric ton surplus.
Estimates suggest Brazil‘s sugar production will remain steady at 42.1 million tons for the next season, aligning with current projections.
Despite an expected decline in sugarcane harvest, mills prioritize sugar over ethanol, resulting in a sugar-focused production mix.
Analysts suggest Brazil’s next harvest unlikely to reach anticipated peak levels, signaling ongoing tightness in global stocks with insufficient surplus.
Moreover, white sugar prices are expected to conclude the year at $700 per metric ton, indicating a rise and underscoring the tight supply scenario.
India’s decreasing sugar production contributes to the global supply constraint.
Assessment emphasizes the volatile sugar market, affected by production changes in key countries and wider supply-demand shifts.