President Boric’s disapproval grows in Chile after one month in office

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Gabriel Boric’s first 30 days at the head of Chile had more shadows than lights. So much so that even the first Chilean president acknowledged “turbulences” in his first month, a very short period to establish a judgment, but which is still striking given the expectations generated.

“This first month has been assimilated to an airplane take-off: we are in front of a magnificent landscape that is Chile, and we are taking off with turbulences that generate anxiety and uncertainties; I believe that we are going to overcome it and that we are starting,” acknowledged the leftist president.

One of the first shocks has been his growing disapproval. Although his approval debuted unchanged compared to previous periods (+50%), week after week, it deflated to 44%, while his disapproval went from 20% to 41%.

“It has been a probably more difficult, more complex, and worse month than expected from the new government. There is a significant drop in popularity in the polls, although he still has more approval than disapproval. Only if compared to previous political cycles, this has been the president who has lost the most popularity in the first month of government,” said Bettina Horst, a Chilean economist.

For Horst, this fall is influenced by different decisions made by the Executive and the weakening of the figure of the Minister of the Interior Izkia Siches due to a scandal about the migratory management of Piñera’s previous mandate.

THE FIRST CRISIS

Siches, a doctor by profession and the second political figure behind the president, confessed to having given false information about an alleged transfer of Venezuelan migrants to their country of origin.

Subsequent apologies have not been enough to silence opposition voices and, despite all the scandal, President Boric endorsed her for the opposition.

But Siches has not only been involved in this controversy. At the beginning of the term, the official went to Araucanía, one of the Mapuche territories in conflict, with the promise of initiating a dialogue, as the government had proposed, but she was received with shots in the air.

However, this has not been the only controversy of the Boric mandate regarding the Mapuche territory.

Izkia Siches caused a stir in Argentina by mentioning the term ‘wallmapu’, which refers to the territories inhabited by the Mapuche on both sides of the border between Chile and Argentina.

“She has had a weakened management. Unforced errors, as they say in sports,” said Horst, also executive director of the think tank Libertad y Desarrollo.

FRIENDLY CROSSFIRE

In recent days, the controversy over the early withdrawal of pension funds has once again caused a stir in Chilean public opinion.

An initiative presented by pro-government deputies “sabotaged” the government, according to Pablo Lacoste, professor at the University of Santiago de Chile, and threatens to increase inflation, which is the highest in 30 years.

“The President has shown greater clarity than his ministers, conventional and parliamentarians. But his government is being worn down by the constant friendly fire,” said Lacoste.

Boric’s government, which initially rejected a new pension withdrawal, presented a legislative proposal on the matter that was more limited and with “social security criteria” when it was unable to close ranks in the Legislative to reject the first initiative.

“This shows, in one way or another, the Government’s political weakness to face the pressures of the most radicalized sectors, such as the Communist Party, of the conglomerate,” Horst pointed out.

ECONOMIC PLAN IN SUSPENSE

Suppose the proposal of the fifth withdrawal becomes a reality. In that case, Pablo Lacoste reaffirms, “it could further stimulate inflation,” for which President Boric is not responsible but is supported by the Central Bank, which is betting on the increase in the interest rate.

“If this threat materializes, the Central Bank will have to increase interest rates even more, which will make credit more expensive, cool the economy, and lead to a recession”, said the professor, who also estimates that under this scenario, “a good part of Boric’s reformist plan will not be fulfilled due to lack of resources to implement it”.

Inflation in Chile was 1.9 % last March when historically it had been managing annual rates of 3 %. The southern country does not escape from the pressures in global value chains, the rise in food prices, or the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war; however, its domestic demand leads to the inflationary composition.

THE NEW CONSTITUTION

Chile debates a new Magna Carta after the social outburst of 2019. In September, the proposal for the new Constitution will be voted on.

According to the Cadem survey, 44% of Chileans say they will reject the proposal in the referendum. Approval, on the other hand, is 39%.

Boric said that the polls are “worrisome”. He advocates for “broader” agreements to achieve a Constitution that is “a meeting point”.

With information from Portafolio