Open-Source A.I. Could Lift Latin America by $1 Trillion—If It Executes

Key Points

• A new industry-backed report claims AI could add up to $1 trillion to Latin America’s economy by 2038.
• Brazil and Mexico report unusually fast payback from AI, helped by cheaper open-source models.
• The biggest risk is not robots. It is falling behind on skills, data, and execution.

Latin America is being sold a big idea: AI will not just streamline back offices. It could reshape the region’s growth path.

The headline number is blunt. AI could contribute as much as $1 trillion to the regional economy by 2038. The pitch is that the region is late enough to skip older tech cycles, but early enough to build an advantage in the next one.

The story behind that headline matters. The study was produced by Linux Foundation Research and commissioned by Meta. That pairing is not accidental.

Meta is pushing “open” AI models, like Llama, as a way to spread adoption fast and lock in an ecosystem. In a region where budgets are tighter, the report argues open-source AI can be five to seven times cheaper than proprietary alternatives.

That difference can decide whether smaller firms experiment or stay offline. The report also points to unusually strong early results. In Brazil, 95% of medium and large companies that implemented AI say they already see positive ROI or have reached break-even.

In Mexico, adopters report an average revenue increase of 16%. In Argentina, AI use is concentrated where quick wins are easiest to measure, like customer service and marketing.

People are the second accelerant. The report says 56% of professionals in the region describe themselves as enthusiastic about AI integration, versus 27% globally.

It also says 85% are ready to use generative AI in daily work, versus 62% globally. That cultural readiness can shorten training cycles and reduce internal resistance.

But the warning is as clear as the optimism. The report says 30% to 40% of jobs are exposed to generative AI in some way. That does not mean mass unemployment. It means job tasks will change fast, and the cost of not retraining will rise.

The region also starts from an investment gap. One 2025 regional estimate puts Latin America’s 2023 AI spend near $2.6 billion, about 1.56% of global demand, despite a much larger share of global GDP.

This matters abroad because it changes where talent clusters form, how nearshoring decisions are made, and which markets gain productivity first. It is also a test of governance: execution wins, slogans lose.