The Big Three
The S&P/BMV IPC closed at 70,019.45 on Thursday — above 70,000 for the first time since April 20 — as the MACD produced its first bullish re-cross of the cycle with the histogram printing +34.90. The index opened at 69,847, pushed to a session high of 70,708.53 (surpassing the April 20 false-breakout high of 70,449), dipped to 69,535, and closed at 70,019, according to BMV data as of close, May 7, 2026. This is the third consecutive gain (+1.94%, +1.84%, +0.24%) and the three-session rally of +4.06% (+2,736 points from Monday’s low at 67,284) has now reclaimed 70,000 from below in a sustained manner that the April 20 one-session spike could not sustain. The close at 70,019 converts the psychological level from resistance to support.
The MACD histogram at +34.90 — the first positive print since the bearish cross began in late April — is the definitive momentum confirmation that the correction is over. The MACD’s journey through the correction: −41 → −121 → −214 → −274 (deepest) → −261 → −171 → −25 → +35 (bullish re-cross). The MACD line at 113.37 has crossed above the signal at 78.47. RSI at 57.67 with signal at 50.20 — both above 50 and rising. Every momentum indicator is now in bullish territory for the first time since April 20. The correction that took the MACD from positive to −274 and back to positive lasted exactly 13 trading sessions.
Banxico cut the reference rate from 6.75% to 6.50% on Thursday, May 7 — the catalyst the prior reports identified as the most important near-term event — according to Rio Times reporting. The 25bp cut brings cumulative easing since May 2024 to 475 basis points. BBVA expects this to be the final cut of the cycle at 6.50%, while Hacienda’s Pre-Criterios projects a year-end rate of 6.30% (implying one more cut). The rate cut, combined with the 70K close and the MACD bullish re-cross, produces a triple confirmation: fundamental catalyst (Banxico easing), technical milestone (70K close), and momentum signal (MACD positive). The session high at 70,709 surpassed the April 20 high at 70,449 — meaning the February 12 ATH at 72,111 is now the next structural target, 3.0% above.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P/BMV IPC Close | 70,019.45 | +0.24% (+164.22 pts) |
| Session High (new cycle high) | 70,708.53 | surpassed Apr 20 high (70,449) |
| MACD histogram (BULLISH RE-CROSS) | +34.90 | first positive since correction |
| 3-session rally | +4.06% | +2,736 pts from Monday’s low |
| RSI / RSI signal | 57.67 / 50.20 | both above 50 |
| Banxico rate (CUT May 7) | 6.50% | −25bp from 6.75% |
| Feb 12 ATH (next target) | 72,111 | 3.0% above close |
| World Cup kickoff | June 11 | 34 days |
Source: BMV, TradingView, Banxico, Rio Times — as of close May 7, 2026.
02 IPC Performance — 70K Confirmed
IPC Mexico today enters Friday’s session above 70,000 with a bullish MACD and a Banxico cut in hand after three sessions that have redefined the market’s trajectory. The April correction — from 70,449 (April 20) to 67,097 (April 29), a −4.76% decline — has been reversed in full. The close at 70,019 is above the April 20 breakout level. The session high at 70,709 has set a new cycle high above the false-breakout peak. The MACD has crossed bullish. The February 12 ATH at 72,111 (3.0% above) is now the structural target.
Thursday’s session structure was healthy: the IPC pushed above 70,700 intraday, pulled back to 69,535 (a natural retest of the prior day’s close), then recovered to 70,019. The pullback-and-recovery confirms that 70,000 now has two-sided support — buyers are defending the level rather than fleeing from it. The contrast with the April 20 session (one spike above 70K, immediate reversal, correction) could not be sharper.
03 Technical Setup
From the chart: O:69,846.94, H:70,708.53, L:69,534.62, C:70,019.45 (+164.22, +0.24%). Thursday’s candle is a consolidation body above 70K with a long upper wick (session high at 70,709) showing initial profit-taking. MACD at 113.37 with signal at 78.47 (histogram +34.90 — bullish). RSI at 57.67 with signal at 50.20.
Key Levels Above
• Target 1: 70,709 (Thursday’s session high — new cycle high)
• Target 2: 70,920 (upper Bollinger Band)
• Target 3: 72,111 (February 12 ATH — 3.0% above close)
Key Levels Below
• Support 1: 70,000 (psychological — now support)
• Support 2: 68,975 (21-day EMA)
• Support 3: 68,395 (50-day SMA)
04 What to Watch
• Friday: Second close above 70K would confirm the level as support and set up a run toward 70,709 (session high) and the ATH at 72,111.
• Post-Banxico: The cut to 6.50% was expected (BBVA) — the market’s reaction (+0.24% with a 70,709 high) was positive but measured. Hacienda projects year-end at 6.30% (one more cut).
• June 11: World Cup kickoff (34 days). Mexico hosts. 5M projected tourists.
• July 1: USMCA mid-term review. Consensus: agreement intact with limited changes.
05 Verdict
Thursday delivered the triple confirmation. The IPC closed above 70,000 (technical milestone). The MACD crossed bullish (momentum confirmation). And Banxico cut to 6.50% (fundamental catalyst). The correction from 70,449 to 67,097 (−4.76%, April 20–29) has been reversed in full across three sessions (+4.06%). The session high at 70,709 set a new cycle high above the April 20 false-breakout peak. The February 12 ATH at 72,111 is now 3.0% above and represents the structural target for the recovery.
Bias: Bullish — above 70K, MACD positive, Banxico easing, ATH in sight. The IPC at 70,019 with Banxico at 6.50%, the MACD bullish, RSI above 57, the World Cup in 34 days, and the USMCA consensus at “intact with limited changes” is the most favorable setup for a new ATH since February. The correction is over. The recovery is confirmed. The target is 72,111. The risk is velocity — three sessions of gains may need consolidation near 70K — but the direction is no longer in question. For the first time since April 20, every signal points the same way: up.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the IPC close above 70,000 on May 7?
The IPC closed at 70,019.45 — above 70,000 for the first time since April 20 — in a three-session rally that gained +4.06% (+2,736 points). The close was supported by Banxico’s rate cut to 6.50% on the same day, the MACD’s first bullish re-cross since the correction began, and a session high at 70,709 that surpassed the April 20 false-breakout peak, according to BMV data.
What did Banxico decide on May 7?
Banxico cut the reference rate from 6.75% to 6.50% on May 7, the expected 25 basis point reduction that brings cumulative easing since May 2024 to 475 basis points. BBVA expects this to be the final cut of the cycle. Hacienda’s Pre-Criterios projects a year-end rate of 6.30%, implying one more potential cut. Headline inflation stands at 4.53% in the second half of April, according to Rio Times reporting.
Is the IPC’s correction officially over?
On a technical basis, the correction is definitively over. The IPC has closed above 70,000 (above the April 20 breakout level), the MACD has produced a bullish re-cross (histogram at +34.90), the RSI is above 57, and all Ichimoku levels from the 50-SMA through the 21-EMA have been reclaimed. The correction lasted from April 20 (70,449) to April 29 (67,097) — a −4.76% decline reversed in full across three sessions.
What is the next target for the IPC?
The February 12 all-time high at 72,111 is the structural target, 3.0% above Thursday’s close. Thursday’s session high at 70,709 is the intermediate resistance. The upper Bollinger Band at 70,920 is the near-term ceiling. The World Cup kickoff on June 11 (34 days) and the USMCA review on July 1 are the catalysts for the next leg higher.
Related coverage:
Banxico cut: Banxico Cuts to 6.50% — Final Cut of the Cycle?
Three-level reclaim: IPC Surges 1.94% to Reclaim Three Levels
Economy guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Nearshoring, Banxico and the Peso
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.
Updated: 2026-05-08T08:00:00Z by Rio Times LatAm Markets Desk