Argentina’s Merval Reclaims 3M With Momentum Confirmation

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — MACD Confirmation Changes the Picture

The Merval Argentina today surged 1.30% to close at 3,011,186, reclaiming 3 million with conviction for the first time. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets.

What makes Tuesday different from the prior four attempts at 3 million is the quality of the move. The index opened below the level at 2,972,629, dipped to 2,953,690 as morning sellers tested resolve, and then rallied 65,133 points to close at 3,011,186 — a classic V-shape reversal from the session low. More importantly, the MACD histogram has turned positive at 17,034, the main line (55,702) is now well above the signal (38,668), and the RSI at 64.51 is bullish with room to 70 before overbought. This is the first time all three momentum indicators have aligned positively since February.

The session’s price action also tells a story about positioning: the dip to 2,953,690 — the fifth consecutive test of the sub-3M zone — was aggressively bought by institutional players who have been accumulating at the support cluster near 2,862,000–2,907,000 throughout the past two weeks. The close above 3,011,000 suggests this base-building phase may be complete.

03 Regional Tailwind — LATAM Risk-On

Tuesday’s rally was not Argentina-specific but part of a broad Latin American risk-on move. Mexico’s IPC exploded 2.47% to break 70,000 for the first time since February, and the positive momentum cascaded across the region. For Argentina, the global context provides additional support: oil above $100 benefits YPF and the Vaca Muerta complex, gold near $4,700 supports Mineros-like names, and the easing of the most acute Hormuz fears removes a tail risk from EM portfolios.

The Trump–Milei alliance continues to provide an institutional backstop. The US$20 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility and the US Treasury currency swap are structural support mechanisms that differentiate Argentina from most EM peers. The privatization pipeline (freight rail, water utility, postal service) provides a near-term event calendar that could generate positive headlines and one-off fiscal revenues. The question remains whether the earnings cycle can validate the 19.8x multiple — but the market’s reaction Tuesday suggests buyers are willing to pay up on the assumption that Q4 results will deliver.

04 Technical Analysis — Merval Daily

The chart shows a decisive shift in momentum. The Merval has broken back above 3 million and closed above the 50-day MA cluster at 2,907,000–2,913,000, both of which now serve as support. The upper Bollinger Band at 3,059,365 is the next resistance — a close above that level would open the path toward the ATH at 3,296,502 (8.7% above Tuesday’s close). The 200-day MA at 2,510,000–2,530,000 is far below.

The MACD picture is the session’s headline: the main line at 55,702 is above the signal at 38,668, and the histogram at +17,034 has crossed from negative to positive territory. This bullish crossover — combined with an RSI at 64.51 that has room to expand — is the strongest technical setup since the post-midterm rally in November 2025. The secondary oscillator at 55.64 is confirming the upward shift. The key to watch: the MACD must continue expanding (histogram growing) over the next 2–3 sessions to confirm this is a trend change rather than a head fake.

05 Key Levels

06 News in Focus

Q4 Earnings: The Proof Point Is Arriving

Fourth-quarter earnings reports are filtering through, and the early signals are constructive for energy and financial names. YPF’s Vaca Muerta production remains at record levels, and $100+ Brent generates robust cash flows. Banks — Galicia, Macro, BBVA Argentina — are expected to show strong results from the credit recovery driven by Milei’s rate cuts (the BCRA cut its policy rate by 102 percentage points from December 2023 to January 2025). The critical test is whether consumer-facing sectors can show improvement despite the subsidy cuts and the two-speed economy dynamic.

Inflation Watch — The 2.5% Threshold

Monthly CPI has been sticky near 2.5%, with the government targeting single digits by 2027. A drop below 2.5% in the next print would validate the disinflation narrative and support equities by easing the cost-of-living squeeze on consumers. An acceleration above 2.5% would revive concerns that the crawling band’s inflation indexation is creating self-reinforcing price pressure — the risk the Peterson Institute warned about in February. The inflation data is the single most important macro release for Argentine assets, as it directly affects the rate path, the peso, and real purchasing power.

Privatization Revenue — Fiscal Gap Plug

With tax revenues declining in real terms for seven consecutive months, one-off privatization proceeds are becoming critical to maintaining the 1.5% of GDP primary surplus target. The IMPSA sale is complete; freight rail and the Buenos Aires water utility are next in line. Moody‘s has said any fiscal deviation would “not materially change” their base case given the credibility Milei has built, but the market needs to see actual revenue from these sales — announcements alone are no longer sufficient. The IMF semi-annual review, with approximately US$700 million in disbursements at stake, adds institutional pressure to deliver on both the fiscal and privatization fronts.

07 Global Context

Tuesday’s regional rally reflected an improvement in Latin American risk appetite. Mexico’s breakout above 70,000 was the headline event, but the positive sentiment benefited all four LATAM markets we cover. For Argentina specifically, the Trump–Milei geopolitical alignment, the IMF/US Treasury backstop, and elevated oil/gold prices supporting the export sectors provide a differentiated backdrop. The peso’s gradual depreciation within the crawling band remains a drag on USD returns but is manageable — the key is that the band adjustments are now indexed to inflation, providing more predictability than the prior fixed 1% monthly crawl.

08 Looking Ahead

The MACD bullish crossover is the most significant technical development in the Merval since the correction began. If the histogram continues to expand (growing above 17,034) over the next 2–3 sessions while price holds above 3 million, the probability of a sustained move toward the upper Bollinger at 3,059,365 increases substantially. Beyond that, the ATH at 3,296,502 (8.7% above) becomes the medium-term target.

The critical test is whether 3 million holds as support on the next pullback. Five approaches to this level — four failures and one holding (Tuesday) — have created a deep technical memory. If it holds, the base-building is complete and the Merval enters a new phase. If it fails again, the range trade continues. The catalysts: Q4 earnings (energy and banks expected strong), the next inflation print (below 2.5% = bullish), privatization announcements (revenue confirmation needed), and the IMF review (disbursement tied to benchmarks).

This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.

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