Lula’s government projects a record trade surplus of US$84 billion this year
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The reduced spending on imported products, whose prices have cooled recently, made the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) project a record trade surplus (exports minus imports) in 2023.
The first estimate for the year forecast a surplus of US$84 billion.
The projection will be updated every three months.
If confirmed, the surplus will be 36.8% higher than the positive balance of US$62.31 billion recorded in 2022, the best historical result.
The trade balance should rise because imports will fall more than exports.
The government projects exports will reach US$25 billion in 2023, a drop of 2.8% in relation to the US$334 billion exported by the country last year.
On the other hand, imports are expected to reach US$241 billion, down 11.8% from the US$273 billion bought from abroad in 2022.
According to the director of the Foreign Trade Planning and Trade Intelligence Department at MDIC, Herlon Brandão, two factors are behind the record balance.
On the one hand, the prices of energy commodities, such as oil, and items, such as fertilizers, are on a downward trend after reaching a peak at the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
On the other hand, the economic slowdown is expected to cause a significant drop in imports because of shrinking consumption.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has impacted imports in recent months.
The international prices of fertilizers fell 24.4% in March compared to the same month last year.
The average price of imported fuels decreased by 6.2% in the same comparison.
The average price of wheat, another product that Brazil imports in large quantities, rose 12.2% but decelerated in relation to last year when the rise in 12 months reached 60% at times.
With information from Gazeta Brasil
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