Latin American Pulse for Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Executive Summary
Read about Latin American Pulse for Wednesday, February 18, 2026 on The Rio Times.
Peru Ousts Its Fourth President Since 2018 in “Chifa-gate” Scandal; Trump Refuses to Rule Out Military Action Against Cuba; Argentina Counts Down to Thursday’s Strike-and-Vote Collision
This is part of The Rio Times’ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
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Executive Summary
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The Big Picture: Peru’s Congress voted 75–24 on Tuesday to remove interim President José Jerí from office, extending a decade of political dysfunction that has now consumed eight heads of state since 2016. The “Chifa-gate” scandal—in which Jerí was filmed entering a Lima restaurant in a hoodie for undisclosed meetings with Chinese businessman Zhihua Yang, who holds active government contracts—triggered seven censure motions and an attorney general’s investigation for influence peddling. Lawmakers will elect a new interim president from among their members today (Wednesday) at approximately 6 PM local time. The successor will govern until July 28, when the winner of the April 12 presidential election takes office. Rafael López Aliaga, a conservative businessman and former mayor of Lima, leads a crowded field of 34 candidates that also includes Keiko Fujimori. The ouster deepens Peru’s institutional crisis just as the country navigates Chinese investment disputes and U.S. pressure over Beijing’s growing presence in the Andean economy.
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President Trump on Monday called Cuba a “failed nation” and explicitly refused to rule out military action to topple its government—the most direct threat of U.S. force against Havana since the Kennedy era. Cuba’s fuel crisis has now cascaded into a public health emergency: garbage is piling up across Havana and other cities because collection trucks have no fuel, creating conditions for mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in the tropical climate. The annual Festival del Habano was cancelled due to the “complex economic situation,” and Díaz-Canel chose to host Argentine leftist Juan Grabois to discuss “American imperialism” rather than signal any diplomatic opening toward Washington.
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Argentina enters the most consequential 48 hours of Milei’s presidency. He departs Buenos Aires tonight for Washington’s inaugural Board of Peace summit, while back home the CGT’s general strike—the first with confirmed full aviation shutdown—will paralyze the economy on the same day the Chamber of Deputies debates labor reform. The government needs approximately 129 votes in the 257-seat chamber. In Venezuela, hunger strikers outside Zona 7 entered their fifth day Tuesday, weakening visibly, as the National Assembly prepares to resume the critical amnesty vote today.
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Regional Mood
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Markets reopen into a minefield. B3 returns this afternoon (Ash Wednesday half-session from 1 PM BRT); BYMA reopens this morning after four days dark. The FOMC minutes release today is the first actionable Fed signal since the January CPI beat. Peru’s congressional vote for a new interim president tonight adds another live event. Thursday delivers simultaneous binary events in Argentina (strike + vote) and Venezuela (amnesty). El Salvador’s record 6.6-tonne cocaine seizure and $110 million Shakira concert windfall bookend a weekend that showcased Bukele’s security and soft-power model.
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Risk Snapshot
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| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Peru | Congress removes President Jerí 75–24 over “Chifa-gate”; successor vote tonight; 4th ouster since 2018; April 12 election looms | CRITICAL |
| Cuba | Trump calls Cuba “failed nation,” refuses to rule out military action; garbage/health crisis deepens; Díaz-Canel hosts Grabois | CRITICAL |
| Argentina | Milei departs for Board of Peace tonight; CGT strike tomorrow with full aviation shutdown; Deputies labor reform vote tomorrow; BYMA reopens today | HIGH |
| Venezuela | Hunger strike Day 5; amnesty debate resumes today (Wed); 600+ political prisoners; credibility of transition at stake | HIGH |
| El Salvador | Record 6.6-tonne cocaine seizure ($165M); Shakira residency generates $110M economic impact; IDB commits $1.3B for 2026 | WATCH |
| Mexico | 40-hr workweek in Deputies committees; plenary vote ~Feb 24–25; USMCA review begins July 1 | WATCH |
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Peru
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Congress Removes Fourth President in Seven Years as “Chifa-gate” Collapses Jerí’s 130-Day Presidency
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What Happened
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- —The Vote: Peru’s Congress voted 75–24 with three abstentions on Tuesday to censure José Jerí as president of Congress, automatically stripping him of the national presidency under Peru’s constitutional succession rules. Jerí had held office for just 130 days after assuming the presidency on October 10 when predecessor Dina Boluarte was removed on “moral incapacity” grounds. His party, Somos Perú, attempted to delay the vote until March but the parliamentary majority rejected the maneuver and approved a resolution to proceed directly without debate. Jerí said he will respect the outcome and returns to his seat as a legislator.
- —“Chifa-gate”: The scandal centers on leaked video showing Jerí entering a Chinese restaurant (“chifa”) in Lima on December 26 wearing a hoodie to disguise his identity for an off-the-books meeting with businessman Zhihua Yang, who holds active government energy concessions. A second meeting on January 6 was also undisclosed. Another Chinese businessman Jerí met is under investigation for illegal logging in the Amazon. Prosecutors opened a preliminary investigation into corruption and influence peddling. Jerí claimed the meetings were to organize a “Peruvian-Chinese friendship day” and apologized for entering “hooded” but denied any wrongdoing. Separate allegations emerged regarding the hiring of nine young women in public institutions following meetings with Jerí at the presidential palace.
- —What Happens Next: Acting congressional president Fernando Rospigliosi said parties have until 6 PM today (Wednesday) to register candidates; the vote for a new interim president follows tonight. The successor will be Peru’s eighth head of state in a decade and will serve as caretaker until the April 12 general election. If no presidential candidate wins 50% in April, a runoff follows in June. López Aliaga leads a field of 34 registered candidates; Keiko Fujimori runs second in most polls.
- —Markets: Despite the revolving door of presidents, Peru’s economy has remained relatively stable with a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 32% in 2024—one of Latin America’s lowest. Mining and infrastructure investment has continued. The Lima Stock Exchange was open normally this week.
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Why It Matters
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Peru has now used the “moral incapacity” removal mechanism so frequently that it has effectively made the presidency disposable. Since Pedro Castillo’s ouster in 2022, the country has cycled through Boluarte and Jerí without a single leader completing even a full year in stable governance. This pattern creates a structural vacuum: no president can accumulate enough political capital to implement reforms or negotiate with Congress as an equal. The China angle is particularly sensitive—the Trump administration has explicitly warned Peru about losing sovereignty to Beijing’s economic influence, and the fact that Jerí fell over meetings with Chinese businessmen feeds directly into Washington’s narrative. For investors, the economy’s resilience despite political chaos is remarkable but not guaranteed: mineral-rich Peru needs policy continuity to attract long-term infrastructure investment, and the April election offers no obvious path to stability with 34 candidates fragmenting the electorate.
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Key Watch
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Congressional vote for interim successor tonight (~6 PM Lima time). Prosecutor’s office next steps on Jerí. Whether the new interim president attempts any policy moves before April. López Aliaga and Fujimori polling trajectories. Market reaction to eighth presidential transition in a decade. U.S. and China responses.
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RISK: CRITICAL
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Cuba
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Trump Threatens Military Action as Fuel Crisis Becomes a Health Emergency
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What Happened
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- —Trump’s Threat: Speaking aboard Air Force One on Monday, President Trump called Cuba a “failed nation” and refused to rule out military action aimed at toppling its government—the most explicit threat of U.S. force against Havana since the Kennedy era. He said Cuba “should absolutely make a deal” and described the situation as “a humanitarian threat.” Cuba’s deputy foreign minister responded that U.S. officials “don’t listen to their President” when claiming Washington bears no responsibility for the island’s difficulties.
- —Garbage and Health Crisis: The fuel shortage has cascaded into a waste collection emergency. Collection trucks across Havana and other cities are sitting idle with empty tanks, causing refuse to pile up on streets. In tropical conditions, uncollected garbage creates breeding grounds for mosquito-borne diseases including dengue and Zika. This adds a public health dimension to a crisis that was already humanitarian—hospitals are operating on reduced staff and intermittent power, and medicine shortages are worsening.
- —Festival del Habano Cancelled: Cuba’s annual cigar festival—one of the island’s premier international events and a significant source of hard currency—was cancelled due to what organizers called “the complex economic situation” caused by the U.S. blockade. The cancellation signals that the crisis is now visibly dismantling Cuba’s revenue-generating cultural infrastructure.
- —Díaz-Canel Hosts Grabois: Cuban President Díaz-Canel received Argentine leftist leader Juan Grabois at the Palace of the Revolution on Tuesday. They discussed “American imperialism” and the Venezuela intervention. The meeting signals Havana is doubling down on ideological solidarity networks rather than pivoting toward pragmatic negotiation with Washington—even as the crisis deepens.
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Why It Matters
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Trump’s comments cross a rhetorical threshold. Previous statements pressured Cuba economically; Monday’s remarks introduced the possibility of military action explicitly. Whether this is strategic signaling or genuine intent, the effect on Havana’s calculus is real: the regime must now weigh whether holding out leads to economic collapse or something worse. The garbage crisis is particularly dangerous because it is visible, quotidian, and impossible to spin—rotting waste on city streets cannot be blamed on imperialism in a way that resonates with a population already at breaking point. For the region, Trump’s language echoes the Venezuela precedent: “make a deal” rhetoric preceded military action there by weeks.
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Key Watch
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Whether Trump’s remarks trigger any diplomatic back-channel response from Havana. Disease outbreak indicators from waste accumulation. Aeroflot final flights this week before Feb 24 cancellation. Social unrest in eastern provinces. BRICS response to Trump’s military rhetoric. Migration flows.
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RISK: CRITICAL
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Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
+0.76%
173,295
+0.76%
67,226
-0.28%
10,762
+0.52%
3,123,411
+0.88%
2,286.19
+1.09%
55,499.07
+1.21%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,295 | +0.76% | +26.39% | 171,990 | — | — | — |
| IPSA | 10,762 | +0.52% | — | 10,706 | 10,810 | 10,644 | 1,721,540,424 |
| IPC MEX | 67,226 | -0.28% | +16.97% | 67,416 | — | — | — |
| MERVAL | 3,123,411 | +0.88% | +53.19% | 3,096,068 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,286.19 | +1.09% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 55,499.07 | +1.21% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.17 | +0.02% | -5.60% | 5.17 | 5.17 | 5.17 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.89 | +0.15% | -8.16% | 5.89 | 5.90 | 5.88 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.47 | -0.26% | -7.06% | 17.51 | 17.56 | 17.46 | — |
| USD/CLP | 921.85 | +0.00% | +0.30% | 921.85 | 921.85 | 921.85 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,443 | -0.24% | -14.69% | 3,451 | 3,452 | 3,437 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | -0.46% | -2.09% | 3.42 | 3.41 | 3.41 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,477 | -0.03% | +24.41% | 1,478 | 1,477 | 1,477 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.22 | +0.00% | +1.19% | 40.22 | 40.22 | 40.22 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,084 | +0.00% | -22.63% | 6,084 | 6,084 | 6,084 | — |
| USD/BOB | 6.85 | +0.00% | +1.72% | 6.85 | 6.85 | 6.85 | — |
| USD/DOP | 59.09 | -0.32% | +0.55% | 59.28 | 59.28 | 58.86 | — |
| USD/CRC | 450.59 | +0.00% | -8.43% | 450.59 | 450.59 | 450.59 | — |
Argentina
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Milei Flies to Washington Tonight as Countdown to Thursday’s Strike and Vote Begins
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What Happened
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- —Departure Tonight: Milei departs Buenos Aires on a special flight tonight (Wednesday) for the inaugural Board of Peace summit in Washington. He joins leaders from 26 nations plus EU observer Dubravka Suica. Argentina will not pay the $1 billion membership fee but participates as a founding member. The trip extends a March diplomatic sprint: the Latin American presidents’ summit in Miami (Mar 7), then “Argentina Week” on Wall Street co-organized by J.P. Morgan and Bank of America.
- —Committee Markups Today: The Chamber of Deputies is expected to begin committee review of the labor reform bill today (Wednesday). The ruling coalition targets a floor vote Thursday before the February 28 extraordinary sessions deadline. The government believes it has approximately 129–131 votes. Key provisions: workday extension to 12 hours, “time bank” for overtime, reduced severance, restrictions on the right to strike, and company-level collective bargaining replacing sector-wide agreements.
- —Strike Logistics Final: The CGT’s 24-hour strike tomorrow will include full aviation shutdown at Aeroparque and Ezeiza (pilots, ground staff, aviation unions confirmed), total bus stoppage via UTA, rail, subway, and reduced taxi/private car service. This is the broadest transport participation of any Milei-era strike. The CGT opted against a Congress demonstration—choosing pure economic shutdown to maximize disruption without giving the government images of street violence.
- —Markets: BYMA reopens this morning after four days dark (Carnival Monday–Tuesday). MERVAL closed Friday Feb 13 at 2,816,127.94 (−1.25%). Traders will price in the strike announcement, Board of Peace news, and the labor reform timeline simultaneously. B3 also reopens this afternoon (Ash Wednesday half-session from 1 PM BRT).
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Why It Matters
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Milei’s simultaneous presence at Trump’s signature multilateral event while Buenos Aires shuts down is a split-screen moment that will define international perceptions of Argentina’s reform trajectory. Passage of labor reform would be the deepest structural change to Argentine labor law since the 1940s Peronist compact; failure would signal the limits of Milei’s post-midterm mandate. BYMA’s Wednesday session will absorb four days of accumulated news in a single session—strike confirmation, Board of Peace participation, committee markup outcomes, and FOMC minutes.
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Key Watch
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Committee vote today. BYMA reaction to strike + reform news. Floor vote tomorrow. Strike breadth—especially whether aviation is fully grounded. Board of Peace optics. 129-vote threshold in the chamber.
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RISK: HIGH
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Venezuela
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Hunger Strikers Weaken on Day Five as Amnesty Debate Returns to Assembly Today
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What Happened
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- —Day Five: The dozen female hunger strikers outside Zona 7 entered their fifth day Tuesday, with participants reporting increasing weakness, dizziness, and difficulty concentrating. A volunteer doctor continues to be denied access to examine prisoners inside the facility. Approximately 60 inmates remain at Zona 7; hundreds more are held at facilities across the country. The women have been camping outside the prison since January 8—now over five weeks.
- —Amnesty Debate Today: The National Assembly is expected to resume the second and final vote on the amnesty bill today (Wednesday). The bill covers charges of “treason,” “terrorism,” and “hate” used against dissidents over 27 years of Chavista rule. The outstanding dispute: whether beneficiaries must appear in court to request amnesty—a procedure the opposition calls a “humiliation clause.” Foro Penal count: 444 freed since January 8, more than 600 remaining.
- —Credibility Gap Widening: Jorge Rodríguez’s February 13 deadline for releasing all prisoners is now five days past with no acknowledgment from the government. The gap between promises and performance is testing whether Washington’s managed-transition strategy—which depends on the Rodríguez government delivering on commitments—can hold.
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Why It Matters
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Today’s amnesty vote is the most significant test of the post-Maduro political framework since January 8. Passage would demonstrate that the National Assembly can deliver legislation under pressure—a prerequisite for the broader democratic transition Washington envisions. Further postponement would confirm the pattern of delay that has characterized the Rodríguez government’s approach to prisoner releases, potentially triggering a reassessment of U.S. policy. The hunger strikers’ deteriorating condition adds moral urgency: five days without food in open-air conditions approaches the threshold where medical intervention becomes critical.
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Key Watch
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Amnesty vote outcome today. Whether the “humiliation clause” is removed or retained. Hunger strikers’ medical condition. U.S. State Department reaction. Oil production restart trajectory under sanctions relief.
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RISK: HIGH
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Regional Snapshot
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El Salvador
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The navy intercepted the Tanzanian-flagged vessel FMS Eagle 380 nautical miles offshore on Sunday, seizing 6.6 tonnes of cocaine ($165M) hidden in ballast tanks—the largest drug bust in the country’s history. Ten suspects arrested (four Colombians, three Nicaraguans, two Panamanians, one Ecuadorian). Trump’s drug czar Sara Carter called it “a win for the Western Hemisphere.” Separately, Shakira’s five-concert residency wrapped with an estimated $110 million economic impact, 144,000 attendees, and 100% hotel occupancy in San Salvador. The IDB committed $1.3 billion in financing for 2026. Bukele’s security-and-soft-power model is generating both headline wins and institutional investment.
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Colombia
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Flood emergency across 16 departments persists with Urrá I reservoir above overflow level. Toll steady at 44 dead, 72,000+ families affected, 870+ km² submerged. An international relief coalition (U.S., Spain, France, Brazil, Argentina) has mobilized. The COP$8 trillion (~$2.2 billion) emergency tax faces corporate pushback ahead of March 8 legislative elections. Ecuador trade war (week 3): reciprocal 30% tariffs, 900% pipeline surcharge, and electricity suspension remain in force. COLCAP closed Friday at 2,368.57 (+1.73%).
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Mexico
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The 40-hour workweek reform is in Deputies committees after the Senate passed it 121–0 on February 11. Plenary vote expected February 24–25. Gradual rollout: 48 hours through 2026, reducing to 40 by 2030. No wage cuts permitted. USMCA review begins July 1. Morena supermajority makes passage near-certain. IPC closed Friday at 71,478.81 (+0.83%).
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Brazil
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Ash Wednesday marks the end of Carnival. B3 reopens this afternoon with a half-session (from 1 PM BRT). Brazil’s first Winter Olympics gold medal (Lucas Pinheiro Braathen, giant slalom) dominated the holiday. Election polling remains tight: Lula 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33%. Political Brasília resumes tomorrow. Ibovespa closed Friday at 186,464.30 (−0.69%).
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Chile
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Kast inauguration March 11 remains the key political horizon. Bachelet’s UN Secretary-General candidacy gathering support. IPSA closed Friday at 10,897.74 (−0.70%). Santiago exchange operated normally this week.
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Bolivia
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Former president Evo Morales commented Tuesday that Peru’s latest ouster demonstrates what happens “in countries where the American empire rules.” President Rodrigo Paz continues opening lithium reserves to private investment while navigating post-subsidy economic adjustment.
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Markets at a Glance
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| Index | Level | Daily Change | Context |
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| Ibovespa | 186,464.30 | −0.69% (Fri) | B3 reopens today 1 PM (Ash Wed half-session). |
| MERVAL | 2,816,127.94 | −1.25% (Fri) | BYMA reopens today. First session since strike call. |
| IPC | 71,478.81 | +0.83% (Fri) | BMV open normally this week. |
| COLCAP | 2,368.57 | +1.73% (Fri) | BVC open normally. Flood emergency ongoing. |
| IPSA | 10,897.74 | −0.70% (Fri) | BCS open normally. |
| S&P 500 | 6,114.63 | +1.04% (Fri) | NYSE reopened Tue. FOMC minutes today. |
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Reopening Day
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All LatAm equity data reflects Friday February 13 closes—the last session before the Carnival/Presidents’ Day lockdown. BYMA reopens this morning; B3 this afternoon (1 PM BRT, Ash Wednesday half-session). NYSE reopened Tuesday. The FOMC minutes release today (2 PM ET) is the first actionable Fed signal since the January CPI beat (2.4% YoY headline, 2.5% core—both below consensus). EM rate-cut expectations rose after the print; any hawkish language in the minutes could reverse that. Tomorrow’s triple convergence—Argentina strike + Venezuela amnesty + Board of Peace—will test the newly reopened markets immediately.
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The Week Ahead
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| Date | Event | Significance |
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| Today Wed 18 | Peru Congress elects new interim president (~6 PM Lima); BYMA and B3 reopen; FOMC minutes (2 PM ET); Venezuela amnesty debate; Argentina committee markup | Peru’s 8th president in a decade chosen tonight. Full LatAm liquidity restored. First Fed signal since CPI. Last session before Argentina’s binary day. |
| Thu Feb 19 | Argentina CGT general strike + Deputies labor reform vote + Board of Peace summit (Washington) | Binary event day: passage = deepest reform in 50 yrs; failure = mandate limits exposed. Milei in Washington during shutdown. |
| Feb 24 | Aeroflot cancels all Cuba service | Russia’s aviation withdrawal from Cuba complete |
| Feb 24–25 | Mexico Deputies vote on 40-hr workweek | Morena supermajority makes passage near-certain; USMCA implications |
| Feb 28 | Argentina extraordinary sessions deadline | Last day for labor reform without new session call |
| Mar 1 | Argentina ordinary sessions open; Milei address | Policy agenda for 2026; reform scorecard |
| Mar 7 | Trump Latin American presidents’ summit (Miami) | Milei, Peña, Paz, Bukele, Noboa, Asfura |
| Mar 8 | Colombia legislative elections | Petro’s coalition tested amid flood emergency |
| Mar 11 | Kast inauguration (Chile) | Cabinet composition; policy direction |
| Apr 12 | Peru general election (first round) | 34 candidates; runoff in June if no majority; 8th president in a decade at stake |
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Related: Brazil Morning Call | Global Economy Briefing