Peru Enters Electoral Blackout: 5 Days, 35 Candidates, 40% Undecided — Keiko 18.6%, Comedian Álvarez Surges, López Aliaga Fades — Colombia’s BanRep Crisis Deepens: Petro Calls Hike “Electoral Act,” Finance Minister Faces Criminal Exposure — Ecuador State of Exception Day 6: 60 Days, 9 Provinces, No Curfew — Petrobras Governance Overhaul: Moretti to Planning Ministry, Lula Ally Mello Nominated for Board Chair, Logistics Director Replaced — Trump’s Hormuz Deadline Tonight: Brent $110, WTI $113 — Kast-Milei Summit Delivers Malvinas Backing — Cuba Releases 2,010 Prisoners — Mexico Gulf Spill Protests Spread — Artemis II Homeward Bound After Lunar Record
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse is shaped by four stories that each carry the power to reshape their respective markets. In Lima, Peru’s electoral blackout is now in effect — no polls may be published until after the April 12 vote, leaving 27.3 million voters to navigate the most fragmented presidential election in modern Latin American history without survey guidance. The last measurements showed Keiko Fujimori leading at 18.6% (Ipsos simulacro), comedian Carlos Álvarez surging to second at 12.1%, and 35-40% of the electorate still undecided. In Bogotá, President Petro has escalated his confrontation with the Banco de la República into new territory — now calling the 100-basis-point hike to 11.25% not merely unconstitutional but an “electoral act, not scientific,” while legal analysts warn Finance Minister Ávila faces criminal prosecution for boycotting the board. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
In Quito, Ecuador’s state of exception enters its sixth day covering nine provinces for 60 days — the latest in a permanent rotation of emergency measures under Noboa, with over 500 homicides in Guayas alone in March. And in Rio de Janeiro, Petrobras is undergoing its most significant governance overhaul of the Lula era: chairman Bruno Moretti resigned March 31 to become Planning Minister, the government has nominated Lula’s economic policy architect Guilherme Santos Mello to replace him, Logistics Director Schlosser was removed effective today, and a new Mello appointment — as secretário-executivo of the Planning Ministry rather than to the central bank board — has removed a major source of market anxiety. The AGM on April 16 will formalise the new structure.
The global overlay is the Hormuz deadline. Trump set 8pm ET tonight (Tuesday, April 7) as his “final” deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait. Brent sits at $110, WTI at $113, crude up ~75% YTD. Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire. The IRGC threatened retaliation “far more forcefully.” Every Latin American economy operates within this variable’s shadow. LATAM markets reopened Monday: COLCAP +0.86% (first pricing of BanRep crisis — surprisingly resilient), IPC Mexico −1.03%, IPSA −0.41%, MERVAL +0.23%, IBOV +0.06%. The Hormuz binary tonight creates the week’s second risk event.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Peru | Electoral blackout day 2; Apr 12 vote; Keiko 18.6%; Álvarez 12.1%; 35 candidates; 40% undecided; ONPE: 60% results by midnight; cierres Thu 23:59; ley seca Sat 8am; 27.3M voters; bicameral return | CRITICAL |
| Colombia | Petro calls BanRep hike “electoral act”; Ávila faces prevaricato (2-7 years); Consejo Gremial defends autonomy; “erdoganisation” warnings; COLCAP +0.86% Mon — resilient but crisis not fully priced | CRITICAL |
| Ecuador | State of exception day 6; Decreto 353; 9 provinces + 4 cantons; 60-day term; no curfew; domicile inviolability suspended; 500+ homicides March in Guayas; 50+ per 100K in 2025 | CRITICAL |
| Brazil / Petrobras | Moretti → Planning Minister; Mello nominated board chair (Lula’s econ architect, BNDES chair); Schlosser out, Laureano in (effective today); AGM Apr 16; Mello off BCB shortlist — market relief | ELEVATED |
| Global / LATAM | Trump 8pm ET Tue Hormuz deadline; Brent $110, WTI $113; Iran rejects ceasefire; threatens Bab al-Mandeb; crude ~75% YTD; 3,400+ dead; binary risk event tonight | CRITICAL |
Peru: The Blackout Begins — Five Days of Silence Before the Most Fragmented Election in Hemisphere History
No polls from Monday Apr 6 until after Apr 12 vote; final Ipsos simulacro: Keiko 18.6%, Álvarez 12.1%, López Aliaga 10.9%; Datum: Keiko 14.5%, Álvarez 10.9%, López Aliaga 9.9%; Sánchez 9.0% (south 27.8%); 35-40% undecided/blank/null; 35 candidates; ONPE: 60% results by midnight Apr 12; cierres Thu 23:59; ley seca Sat 08:00; 27.3M voters; bicameral return; 49,501 JNE fiscalizadores
What Happened
- —Blackout begins: Under Peruvian electoral law, no polls may be published from the Monday before the vote. The surveys released over the weekend are the last the public will see before April 12. The numbers are consistent across firms: Keiko Fujimori leads in every poll, but her ceiling (14.5-18.6% depending on the measure) leaves the second-round matchup completely open. The ONPE chief confirmed that 60% of presidential results will be processed by midnight on election night, with results updating every 15 minutes from 7:30-8:00 PM onward after the two-hour escrutinio.
- —The final lineup: The Ipsos simulacro evolution is telling: Keiko surged from 8.8% in January to 18.6% after the debate cycle. Carlos Álvarez went from outsider to second place at 12.1%. López Aliaga peaked at 17.2% in March and fell to 10.9%. Roberto Sánchez of Juntos por el Perú rose to 9.0%, dominating the south at 27.8%. Jorge Nieto reached 5.6% as a centrist option. Crucially, blank/null/undecided fell 13 points after the debates — proving the televised confrontations were the decisive mechanism for voter crystallisation. Keiko will close her campaign Thursday in Villa El Salvador; party closings must end by 23:59 Thursday.
- —The complexity: This is being called the most complex election in Peruvian history. The ballot — 44 cm wide — shows 35 presidential candidates across five simultaneous votes (president, national senators, district senators, diputados, Parlamento Andino), reflecting the return of bicameralism for the first time in 30+ years. The JNE will deploy 49,501 fiscalizadores. Escrutinio will be automated in Lima but manual elsewhere. Voting materials were excluded from Middle East distribution due to the ongoing war. A ley seca begins Saturday at 8am and runs until Monday at 8am.
Why It Matters
The five days of silence between now and the vote are the most dangerous phase of the Peruvian election. Without polling to anchor expectations, rumour, social media, and last-minute endorsements become the primary information sources for 27.3 million voters — 40% of whom had still not decided as of the last measurement. The second round (June 7 if needed, and it is virtually certain) is the market-moving event, but the first round determines the matchup. A Keiko-Álvarez second round is uncharted territory. A Keiko-López Aliaga contest would be a right-vs-right fight for the first time. A Keiko-Sánchez matchup would replay the left-right polarisation of 2021. The sol, Lima exchange, and Peru sovereign spreads all depend on which scenario materialises Saturday night. As covered in previous editions, Peru’s structural political instability means any president without a legislative coalition faces removal — making the congressional race equally consequential.
Key Watch
Blackout week dynamics. Last-minute endorsements. Cierres de campaña through Thursday. Ley seca Saturday. Apr 12 boca de urna (Ipsos for Perú21/Latina). ONPE midnight results. Congressional fragmentation. Sol and BVL volatility.
RISK: CRITICAL
Colombia: Petro Intensifies BanRep War — Finance Minister Faces Criminal Exposure as Institutional Crisis Deepens
Petro now calls 100bps hike “electoral act, not scientific”; accuses board majority of being “duquista”; names Alicia Arango as political influence; Ávila faces prevaricato por omisión (2-7 years prison); Consejo Gremial, ex-ministers, deans defend autonomy; “erdoganisation” warnings; COLCAP +0.86% Monday — surprisingly resilient first reaction
What Happened
- —Petro escalates further: Over Easter, the president continued his sustained offensive against the Banco de la República. In his latest interventions, he characterised the 100bps hike to 11.25% not just as unconstitutional but as an “electoral act, not scientific” — explicitly accusing the board majority of acting on behalf of the political opposition ahead of Colombia’s presidential elections. He named board member Alicia Arango as the daughter of a campaign chief for presidential candidate Paloma Valencia, framing the rate decision as political sabotage. He backed a letter signed by academics questioning the bank’s monetary policy and called the decision “the worst blunder in history.”
- —Criminal exposure: Legal analysts highlighted that Finance Minister Germán Ávila’s announced boycott of the board carries serious legal consequences. Under the Colombian Penal Code, prevaricato por omisión — deliberately failing to perform an official duty — carries 2-7 years of imprisonment. Constitutional scholars noted that Article 372 requires the Finance Minister’s presence on the seven-member board and assigns him its presidency. Former BanRep gerente Juan José Echavarría told Caracol Radio that no minister has ever previously walked out. Former Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas said the true cause of high rates is Petro’s own fiscal deficit and warned that Ávila could become the first Finance Minister in history to be formally removed.
- —Market reaction and institutional defence: COLCAP opened Monday at 2,287.72 and closed at 2,300.66, up 0.86% — a surprisingly resilient first reaction that suggests the market may be reading Petro’s offensive as politically damaging but not yet a credible threat to actual policy independence. However, the carry trade dynamics and COP/USD remain the key test. The Consejo Gremial Nacional issued a categorical defence of BanRep’s autonomy. Analysts invoked the “erdoganisation” comparison — Turkey’s experience where political pressure on the central bank destroyed monetary credibility. BanRep’s Villar and board chair Olga Lucía Acosta reaffirmed their independence. Economist Felipe Campos showed data proving it was government debt, not BanRep policy, that drove mortgage rate increases — and Petro attacked him publicly.
Why It Matters
Monday’s COLCAP resilience is notable but not definitive. The Colombian peso, the world’s best-performing currency over the past year (+17.68% vs USD), is the asset most at risk: the carry trade that drives peso strength depends entirely on confidence in central bank independence. If the market reads Petro’s offensive as escalating — through legislative action, constitutional reform, or sustained ministerial boycott — the peso appreciation reverses and Colombia’s investment-grade credit story comes under review. The Iran oil shock adds a layer: with Brent at $110, Colombia the oil exporter benefits fiscally — but Colombia the inflation-fighting economy needs tighter, not looser, monetary policy. Petro cannot have both lower rates and stable prices in a $110 oil world. As covered in previous editions, the Chávez comparison — introduced by ANDI, not the opposition — remains the most damaging frame for investor confidence.
Key Watch
COP/USD trend this week. Ávila legal proceedings. Moción de censura possibility. BanRep next meeting. Credit rating agency statements. Petro “extraordinary measures” specifics. Oil price pass-through.
RISK: CRITICAL
Ecuador: State of Exception Enters Sixth Day — Nine Provinces Under 60-Day Emergency Amid Record Violence
Decreto 353 (April 2): Guayas, Manabí, Pichincha, Esmeraldas, El Oro, Los Ríos, Santa Elena, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Sucumbíos plus four cantons; domicile inviolability and correspondence privacy suspended; no curfew; 60-day term; 500+ homicides in Guayas in March; 50+ per 100K in 2025 — LATAM’s highest; ~7 million people affected; Corte Constitucional review pending
What Happened
- —Day six: Ecuador’s state of exception — declared April 2 under Decreto Ejecutivo 353 — enters its sixth day covering approximately 7 million people across nine provinces and four cantons. The suspension of domicile inviolability allows joint military-police raids without prior judicial authorisation when there are indications of armed groups, weapons, explosives, or narcotrafficking. Unlike the previous measure (a toque de queda in four provinces until March 30), this decree does not restrict circulation — a deliberate calibration to avoid economic damage during the Semana Santa tourism period.
- —The permanent emergency: Ecuador is now operating under a continuous rotation of emergency measures. The March 30 curfew ended; 72 hours later, the April 2 state of exception began. Since Noboa declared “war” on organised crime in 2024, successive states of exception have covered the territory in varying configurations. The violence statistics justify the measures: over 500 homicides were recorded in Guayas alone in March 2026, and Ecuador now leads Latin America with more than 50 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025. The decree additionally authorises the temporary requisition of private assets for security operations. The Corte Constitucional review is pending. Amnesty International has warned of potential human rights abuses ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
Why It Matters
Ecuador’s security transformation under Noboa is the most aggressive in the hemisphere outside El Salvador. The shift from blanket curfew to targeted raid authority suggests operational maturation — but the indefinite nature of the exceptions raises rule-of-law concerns that could affect investment climate and sovereign perception. The Colombia border remains the flashpoint: US-backed joint operations target FARC dissident groups in Sucumbíos, while Petro installed radar on the Colombian side. The debate over whether these emergency tools are effective or merely postponing structural problems remains open — violence indices have continued rising despite successive states of exception. As covered in previous Pulse editions, this is the most significant sustained security operation in LATAM outside of El Salvador’s gang crackdown.
Key Watch
Corte Constitucional review. Raid results and arrest data. Colombia border tensions. Amnesty/HRW monitoring. Noboa approval trajectory. Homicide rate trend.
RISK: CRITICAL
Petrobras: Lula’s Governance Overhaul — Moretti to Cabinet, Mello to Board Chair, Logistics Director Replaced
Bruno Moretti resigned as board chair Mar 31 → Planning Minister; government nominates Guilherme Santos Mello (Fazenda policy secretary, BNDES chair, Lula’s 2022 campaign adviser) for board chairman; Pogliese interim chair; Schlosser removed as Logistics Director — Laureano in effective Apr 7; França adds Energy Transition temporarily; Mello also named secretário-executivo at Planning — removed from BCB shortlist; AGM Apr 16; IBOV 188,162 (+0.06%)
What Happened
- —The cascade: On March 31, Bruno Moretti — a Lula PT ally who had chaired Petrobras’ board since August 2025 — resigned with immediate effect after being appointed Brazil’s Minister of Planning and Budget. This triggered a governance cascade. The board elected Marcelo Weick Pogliese as interim chairman. On Monday, April 6, the federal government formally nominated economist Guilherme Santos Mello to join the board as Moretti’s replacement, with the explicit indication that he should be elected board chairman at the Annual General Meeting scheduled for April 16.
- —Who is Mello: Guilherme Santos Mello is one of the most influential economic policy architects in Lula’s orbit. He has served as Secretary of Economic Policy at the Finance Ministry since the start of Fernando Haddad’s tenure, chairs the BNDES board, sits on the Pré-Sal Petróleo (PPSA) board, and was Lula’s personal economic adviser during the 2022 campaign. He is a Unicamp-trained economist aligned with the PT’s developmentalist wing. Crucially, Bloomberg reported Monday that Mello will also become secretário-executivo of the Planning Ministry under Moretti — a move that simultaneously removes him from the shortlist for two open central bank board seats, a prospect that had generated significant market anxiety.
- —Executive reshuffling: Separately, Petrobras approved the immediate departure of Claudio Romeo Schlosser from his role as Executive Director of Logistics, Commercialisation, and Markets. His replacement, Angélica Laureano — a 45-year company veteran — takes effect today (April 7). William França, currently Executive Director of Industrial Processes, will temporarily assume additional oversight of Energy Transition and Sustainability. The combined effect is a top-to-bottom governance reset ahead of the April 16 AGM, where shareholders will vote on 2025 financials, 2026 capital budget, profit allocation, and the full board composition.
Why It Matters
Petrobras governance transitions are always market-sensitive because the company sits at the intersection of Brazil’s fiscal policy, energy strategy, and electoral politics — and Lula faces re-election in October. Mello’s appointment deepens Brasília’s influence over the company’s strategic direction at a moment when $110 Brent creates enormous revenue upside but also political pressure on fuel pricing. The positive signal for markets is Mello’s removal from the BCB shortlist — his developmentalist credentials had generated fears of a dovish appointment to the central bank. By routing him to Planning and Petrobras instead, the government relieves one pressure point while concentrating political control over the state oil company. IBOV barely moved Monday (+0.06% to 188,162), suggesting the market had partially priced the Moretti departure. The real test comes April 16 when the full board slate faces a shareholder vote. As covered in previous editions, Petrobras under Lula has consistently been a site of tension between shareholder returns and political expectations — and the October election will only intensify that dynamic.
Key Watch
Apr 16 AGM: board election, capital budget, dividend policy. Mello governance compliance checks. Fuel pricing under $110 Brent. PETR4 reaction. Lula re-election positioning. BCB board nominations (two seats open). Laureano logistics strategy.
RISK: ELEVATED
Regional Snapshot
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Iran, Oil & The Hormuz Binary Trump set 8pm ET tonight (Tuesday, April 7) as his “final” deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power plants and bridges. Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal and countered with 10 clauses demanding a permanent end to the war. The IRGC warned of retaliation “far more forcefully.” An adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei threatened Bab al-Mandeb. Brent $110.05, WTI $113.42, crude ~75% YTD. Over 3,400 dead across the Middle East in 38 days. For LATAM: oil exporters benefit from prices but face inflationary pass-through; importers face pure cost shock. Every central bank must recalibrate. Previous editions. |
Kast-Milei Summit & Chile Monday’s 90-minute bilateral at Casa Rosada exceeded expectations. The joint communiqué covered investment attraction, energy and mining integration (Vaca Muerta gas, Pacific port access), and security coordination. The headline: Chile formally backed Argentina’s Malvinas sovereignty claim — a historic shift from traditional neutrality. Kast separately met Patricia Bullrich, who posted “order, law, liberty across all Latin America.” Apablaza remains fugitive; $20M peso reward active; defence lawyers filed a UN Torture Committee complaint. IPSA closed at 10,695 (−0.41%). Previous editions. |
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Cuba, Mexico & Central America Cuba released 2,010 prisoners — the largest excarcelation in years — framed as Semana Santa but tied to Washington pressure. Political detainees excluded; Prisoners Defenders says 1,200+ remain. Anatoli Kolodkin crude now processing at Matanzas. In Mexico, the Gulf oil spill triggered mass protests across Veracruz — 933 km of coastline contaminated since March 2, 96 localities affected. Pemex accused of cover-up; Sheinbaum denied. ANTAC called an indefinite national transport strike from April 6. IPC closed at 68,987 (−1.03%). Spain will grant nationality to Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López. USS Nimitz remains in Panamanian waters. Bolivia gubernatorial runoffs April 19. Previous editions. |
Space, Crypto & Markets Artemis II completed its historic lunar flyby Monday, setting a new crewed spaceflight distance record at 406,771 km from Earth — surpassing Apollo 13’s 1970 mark. The crew traversed the far side of the Moon during a 40+ minute communications blackout, observed a total solar eclipse from space, and has begun the five-day return journey. Splashdown estimated April 11. Monday LATAM reopening: IBOV 188,162 (+0.06%), MERVAL 3,006,248 (+0.23%), COLCAP 2,301 (+0.86%), IPSA 10,695 (−0.41%), IPC 68,987 (−1.03%). USD/BRL flat at 5.1393. BTC at 68,520 (−0.49%), RSI 45-49, below 200-day SMA. Gold volatile ~$4,600. Tuesday Hormuz deadline creates binary risk. Previous editions. |
Markets at a Glance — Monday April 7 (Post-Easter Reopening)
| Index | Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 188,161.97 | +0.06% | Petrobras governance absorbed; oil tailwind; Hormuz binary tonight |
| COLCAP | 2,300.66 | +0.86% | First pricing of BanRep crisis — surprisingly resilient; COP key test |
| MERVAL | 3,006,247.77 | +0.23% | Kast summit + Malvinas priced; back above 3M; RSI 52-65 |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,695.09 | −0.41% | Summit positive offset by oil cost shock; near Ichimoku cloud; RSI 46-54 |
| IPC (Mexico) | 68,986.63 | −1.03% | Gulf spill + ANTAC strike + oil import costs; broke below 69K; RSI 44-55 |
| USD/BRL | 5.1393 | 0.00% | Flat reopening; RSI 41-48; real holding near yearly lows vs USD |
| Brent Crude | US$110.05 | −2.5% | Ceasefire hope dip — Hormuz deadline tonight reverses if no deal |
| WTI Crude | US$113.42 | +1.8% | Rare premium over Brent — US war involvement directly priced |
| Bitcoin | US$68,520 | −0.49% | Ceasefire bounce faded; RSI 45-49 neutral; below 200-day SMA |
All equity and FX data from TradingView Tier 0 charts timestamped Apr 7, 06:31-06:33 UTC (riotimesonline account). Oil from OilPriceAPI/Fortune (Apr 6 close). Iran war from Al Jazeera/CNN/NPR/NBC/WaPo live blogs (Apr 6-7). Kast-Milei from Infobae/Emol/El Economista/Prensa Presidencia Chile. Peru from Ipsos/Datum/CPI/El Comercio/Infobae/ONPE. Colombia from Infobae/Semana/Diario del Sur. Ecuador from Primicias/Teleamazonas/Euronews/El Tiempo. Petrobras from OilPrice/Bloomberg Línea/Folha/IstoÉ Dinheiro/Money Times/TipRanks. Cuba from CNN en Español/El Nacional. Mexico from CNN en Español/Reforma/ADN40. Artemis II from NASA/CNN/Infobae. Previous Pulse editions.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Tue Apr 7 | Trump 8pm ET Hormuz deadline — binary risk event; EIA energy outlook update; Peru blackout day 2; Petrobras: Laureano takes office | Iran / All / Peru / Brazil |
| Wed-Thu Apr 8-9 | Peru: final rallies; cierres Thu 23:59; Iran post-deadline diplomacy or escalation; Mexico ANTAC strike; Colombia Ávila legal watch | Peru / Iran / Mex / Col |
| Fri Apr 10 | Peru propaganda ban begins; Ecuador Corte Constitucional review window | Peru / Ecuador |
| ~Apr 11 | Artemis II splashdown (Pacific); Peru ley seca begins Sat 08:00 | Space / Peru |
| Sat Apr 12 | PERU VOTES — presidential & legislative first round; 35 candidates; 27.3M voters; Ipsos boca de urna; ONPE 60% by midnight | Peru |
| Wed Apr 16 | Petrobras AGM: board elections, Mello chairman vote, 2025 financials, capital budget, dividends | Brazil |
| Sat Apr 19 | Bolivia — seven gubernatorial runoffs | Bolivia |