The Rio Times · Chile Market Report
Morning Edition · March 23, 2026 · Covering March 20 Session
The Big Three
1
The IPSA plunged 1.87% to 10,277.51 on Friday, reversing the week’s recovery and posting a 1.81% weekly decline. Diario Financiero reported the selloff deepened sharply in the final minutes as FTSE global index rebalancing flows hit the market, driving total volume to CLP 330 billion — roughly 30% of which was concentrated in Latam Airlines (+0.4%) and SQM-B (−4.5%). The index opened at 10,473.45, touched a session high of 10,550.30, then collapsed to a low of 10,277.05 before closing at 10,277.51 — effectively at the session floor.
2
Swap rates surged as markets begin pricing the possibility that the BCCh may have to raise rates in 2026. Diario Financiero noted that swap rates rose sharply on Friday, and the market is now taking seriously the scenario in which the Banco Central de Chile reverses its easing cycle. The BCCh will publish its Informe de Política Monetaria (IPoM) next week — the first under the Kast presidency — and its assessment of oil-driven inflation risks will be market-moving. The current TPM stands at 4.50%, and any hawkish shift in the forward guidance would represent a fundamental repricing of Chilean rate expectations.
3
The peso weakened 1.21% to approximately CLP 926 per dollar as Brent surged to $112.70. Chile is a net oil importer, making it uniquely vulnerable to the Hormuz premium: unlike Colombia or Argentina, where state oil companies benefit from higher crude, every dollar added to the barrel feeds directly into Chile’s import bill and inflation. Copper, which normally provides an offset, faces its own headwinds from the global growth slowdown fears, though prices remain elevated by historical standards. The triple Witching Day expiration of $5.7 trillion in U.S. options amplified volatility across all global markets.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| S&P IPSA | 10,277.51 | −1.87% |
| USD/CLP | ~926 | +1.21% |
| Brent Crude | $112.70 | +3.70% |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | unch |
| S&P 500 | 5,667.56 | −1.51% |
| IPSA ATH (Jan/Feb) | 11,721 | −12.31% |
02 Equities
The Chile stock market IPSA today suffered its sharpest single-session decline in weeks, falling 1.87% to 10,277.51 and erasing the cautious recovery that had built through mid-week. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Chilean stock market and Latin American financial markets. Diario Financiero reported the selloff was amplified by FTSE global index rebalancing flows that struck in the final minutes of trading, driving volume to CLP 330 billion — well above the daily average.
Aguas Andinas led the decliners with a 6.7% plunge following its Q4 earnings release, followed by Cencosud (−5.8%) and steelmaker CAP (−4.7%). SQM-B, one of the index’s heaviest weights, dropped 4.5% on high volume as lithium and copper-linked names absorbed the global growth slowdown narrative. Latam Airlines managed a marginal 0.4% gain as the airline benefited from peso weakness that boosts dollar-denominated international revenue. The weekly loss of 1.81% reversed the tentative recovery that had lifted the index earlier in the week.
The IPSA now sits 12.31% below its all-time high of 11,721 set earlier this year. In 2025, the selectivo achieved 72 record closes in what was its best annual performance in decades. The Kast presidency, which began on March 11, has been broadly perceived as pro-business — Fitch highlighted the new government’s focus on spending cuts, faster environmental permits, and migration control — but the global headwinds from the Hormuz crisis are overwhelming any domestic tailwind.
03 Currency
The Chilean peso weakened 1.21% to approximately CLP 926 per dollar on Friday, one of the worst-performing Latin American currencies in the session alongside the Brazilian real (−1.4%) and the Mexican peso (−1.12%). The move reflects Chile’s acute vulnerability to oil price shocks as a net energy importer. With Brent at $112.70 and rising, every barrel increase feeds directly into Chile’s trade balance and inflation expectations — a dynamic that the BCCh will need to address in next week’s IPoM.
Despite the weekly depreciation, the peso has held relatively well in the broader context: year-to-date, the dollar is still down approximately 3.2% against the Chilean peso, supported by elevated copper prices and the political transition to a market-friendly Kast government. Bloomberg consensus projects USD/CLP in a 820–880 range by year-end, a target that assumes the Hormuz crisis resolves and copper remains supported. Swap rates have risen sharply, with DF reporting that markets are now pricing the possibility of a BCCh rate hike — a dramatic reversal from the easing expectations that prevailed just weeks ago.
04 Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows the IPSA closing at 10,277.51 after a session that saw the index reject the 10,550 resistance zone and collapse to close at the session low. The MACD histogram at 3.49 is barely positive — essentially flat — while the MACD line at −132.28 and signal line at −135.77 remain deeply negative and nearly converged. This configuration suggests the index is in a precarious equilibrium: neither the bearish momentum is accelerating nor is a bullish reversal taking hold.
The RSI at 40.33 (fast) and 37.71 (slow) sits in the lower neutral zone, approaching but not yet reaching oversold territory. The 200-day SMA at approximately 9,553 provides a structural floor 7.0% below current price, confirming the primary uptrend from 2024 remains intact. The Bollinger bands show price trading near the lower band after Friday’s sharp decline. The 10,074 level — the lowest recent support on the chart — represents the critical near-term floor; a breach would target the 9,553 zone and formally shift the index into correction territory relative to its all-time high.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 3 | 10,593 | Upper Bollinger / recent high |
| Resistance 2 | 10,506 | MA cluster / 50-day EMA area |
| Resistance 1 | 10,470 | Friday open / intraday pivot |
| Friday Close | 10,277.51 | March 20, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 10,074 | March low zone |
| Support 2 | 9,553 | 200-day SMA (bull/bear line) |
| Support 3 | 9,425 | Blue trendline from 2024 origin |
06 Global Context
Chile’s position as a net oil importer makes it among the most exposed Latin American economies to the Hormuz disruption. Brent surged 3.7% to $112.70 on Friday after CBS reported the U.S. is preparing to potentially deploy ground forces into Iran. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could exceed its 2008 record of $147 if the Strait remains closed, while the EIA forecasts prices above $95 through May. For Chile, this translates directly into higher fuel import costs, wider trade deficits, and upward pressure on inflation that complicates the BCCh’s rate path.
U.S. markets fell sharply on the triple Witching Day, with approximately $5.7 trillion in options expiring. The S&P 500 dropped 1.51%, the Russell 2000 became the first major U.S. index to enter correction territory in 2026 (−2.6%), and the VIX spiked to 26.78. The global equity selloff was broad: Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.38%, Germany’s DAX dropped 2.01%, and across Latin America, the IPSA (−1.87%) underperformed the Colombian COLCAP (+1.40%) and was broadly in line with the Mexican IPC (−1.63%) and Argentine Merval (−1.57%).
07 Looking Ahead
The week ahead is dominated by the BCCh’s Informe de Política Monetaria (IPoM) — the first under the Kast government. With swap rates surging and the market now pricing a potential rate hike, the IPoM’s inflation projections and rate path guidance will be decisive. If the BCCh acknowledges the oil shock’s inflationary pass-through and shifts to a tightening bias, it would be bearish for equities but supportive for the peso. A more dovish assessment that treats the oil shock as transitory would provide relief for rate-sensitive sectors but risks undermining the central bank’s credibility.
Copper remains the swing variable for Chile. The metal has held up relatively well given the global growth concerns, but a sustained decline would hit SQM, CAP, and the broader mining complex that underpins the Chilean economy. On the ceasefire watch, any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz would immediately collapse oil prices, ease inflation expectations, and remove the rate-hike risk — the single most bullish scenario for Chilean equities. President Kast’s first policy moves — 43 decrees halted at the Contraloría and BHP’s new La Escondida concentrator environmental filing — signal a structural shift toward faster permitting that could attract long-term mining investment.
08 Verdict
The IPSA’s 1.87% decline on Friday was the session’s worst performance among the four LATAM markets tracked in this report, erasing the week’s partial recovery and leaving the index 12.3% below its all-time high. The technical picture is deteriorating: the MACD histogram is barely positive, RSI is approaching oversold territory at 40.33/37.71, and Friday’s close at the session low suggests selling pressure remains dominant. The FTSE rebalancing flows amplified the damage but the underlying weakness is driven by the oil-inflation-rate nexus that uniquely disadvantages Chile as a net importer.
The emergence of rate-hike pricing is the most significant development for Chilean markets this week. A BCCh tightening cycle would represent a stark reversal from the easing trajectory that supported the 72-record-close rally in 2025, and would weigh heavily on rate-sensitive sectors including real estate, utilities, and consumer discretionary. The 200-day SMA at 9,553 provides the structural floor 7% below, confirming the primary bull trend remains intact. The Kast government’s pro-business orientation provides a medium-term tailwind, but it cannot offset the near-term headwinds from the Hormuz crisis.
Bias: BEARISH near-term. The IPSA closed at the session low, RSI is approaching oversold, and the rate-hike risk from the IPoM adds a new headwind. A daily close above 10,506 would shift the bias to Neutral. A break below 10,074 would confirm an extension of the selloff toward the 200-day SMA at 9,553. The BCCh IPoM and any Hormuz ceasefire developments are the key catalysts for the week ahead.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sourced from BCS, TradingView, Investing.com, Diario Financiero, La Tercera, Infobae, Bloomberg Línea, Banco Central de Chile, Fitch, Goldman Sachs, and EIA. © 2026 The Rio Times.