The Big Three
The S&P/BMV IPC surged 1.13% to 67,858.09 on Thursday — the first rally in four sessions — in a bullish marubozu that opened at the session low (67,140) and climbed 930 points to a high of 68,070 before closing at 67,858, reclaiming the 50-day SMA (67,836). The open-at-the-low structure mirrors Friday’s marubozu — but with one critical difference: the MACD histogram narrowed for the first time (−274.18 → −250.81), whereas Friday’s marubozu produced no narrowing. The narrowing, combined with the 50-SMA reclaim, means Thursday’s bounce has already registered on the momentum indicators. The four-session decline from Friday’s 69,231 (−1.79%, −1.06%, −0.26%) has been halted with a +1.13% session that reclaims the most important support level in the IPC’s 2026 chart.
The MACD histogram at −250.81 narrowed from −274.18 — the first session of narrowing since the bearish cross began, and a stronger first signal than Friday’s stabilization (−40.86 → −40.93 was flat, not narrowing). The MACD line at 129.33 remains below the signal at −121.48, but the histogram’s narrowing is the prerequisite for an eventual bullish re-cross. RSI signal at 46.55 has recovered from 41.86 — still below 50 but moving in the right direction. The technical picture is improving faster than it did after the false 70K breakout: that recovery produced only stabilization before reversing; this one has produced narrowing on the first bounce session.
The trade backdrop is evolving: Sheinbaum’s steel decree (April 29) is being accompanied by a broader tariff bill targeting 1,371 product categories from non-FTA countries, while Mexico simultaneously pursues a preliminary steel/aluminum deal ahead of the USMCA review. The dual-track approach — retaliatory domestic procurement shift + negotiation for tariff quotas — is the most sophisticated trade response Mexico has produced under Sheinbaum. Reuters confirmed she told reporters “we hope that a preliminary agreement can be reached” on steel, aluminum, and automobiles ahead of the July 1 USMCA review. The IPC’s bounce on Thursday may reflect the market’s reading that the Sheinbaum approach is pragmatic rather than purely confrontational — the steel decree is leverage, not a permanent break.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P/BMV IPC Close | 67,858.09 | +1.13% (+761.03 pts) |
| Session Low / Open (marubozu) | 67,140.29 | open = low, buyers all day |
| Session High | 68,070.20 | above 50-SMA |
| Close / 50-day SMA (RECLAIMED) | 67,858 / 67,836 | close on it |
| MACD histogram (FIRST NARROWING) | −250.81 | from −274.18 — first time |
| RSI signal (recovering) | 46.55 | from 41.86 |
| Tenkan-sen (next resistance) | 68,162.97 | 305 pts above close |
| 21-day EMA (distant) | 68,423.15 | 565 pts above |
| Lower BB (bounced from) | 67,202.33 | close above |
| 200-day SMA | 64,016.34 | primary trend support |
02 Equities — The 50-SMA Reclaim
IPC Mexico today enters May with the 50-day SMA reclaimed after the S&P/BMV IPC surged 1.13% on Thursday. This Mexico stock market report covers the session that produced the first MACD narrowing since the bearish cross and reclaimed the most important support level in the IPC’s 2026 chart — the 50-day SMA that had been broken for four sessions. The close at 67,858 sits essentially on the 50-day SMA at 67,836 — within 22 points. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The contrast with the prior week’s Friday marubozu is instructive. That +0.87% rally from April 24 produced no MACD narrowing and was erased in one session (Monday’s −1.79%). Thursday’s +1.13% rally has already produced narrowing (−274→−251), reclaimed the 50-SMA (broken since Monday), and came with a session high above 68,000 (68,070). The structural quality of this bounce is higher. The risk remains the same: if Friday does not follow through with at least a hold above 67,836, the pattern of dead-cat bounces that fade would reassert.
The Sheinbaum trade strategy is becoming clearer. The steel decree (Wednesday) was followed by reports that Mexico is simultaneously pursuing a preliminary steel/aluminum/auto deal ahead of the USMCA review. The dual-track approach — domestic procurement shift as leverage + negotiation for tariff quotas — transforms the USMCA from a purely adversarial event into a negotiation with fallback positions. The IPC at 67,858 may be pricing the pragmatic reading: Sheinbaum is not escalating to a trade war; she is creating leverage for a deal. The 1,371-product tariff bill targeting non-FTA countries (mainly China) further signals alignment with US protectionist goals — a gesture that could ease the USMCA talks.
03 Key Levels
| Level | S&P/BMV IPC |
| 21-day EMA (resistance) | 68,423.15 |
| Tenkan-sen (next target) | 68,162.97 |
| Thursday Close / 50-day SMA | 67,858 / 67,836 |
| Kijun-sen (support) | 67,670.68 |
| Lower BB (bounced from) | 67,202.33 |
| 200-day SMA | 64,016.34 |
04 Looking Ahead
Friday enters May with the 50-SMA reclaimed and the MACD narrowing. A hold above 67,836 with a move toward 68,163 (Tenkan) would confirm the bounce and narrow the MACD further. A fade below 67,670 (Kijun) would classify Thursday as another dead-cat bounce. The Banxico May meeting, the CBP refund status, and the evolving Sheinbaum trade strategy are the catalysts.
Key dates: May — Banxico decision (BBVA: cut; Capital Economics: hold). CBP IEEPA refunds — status uncertain. June 11 — World Cup kickoff (41 days). July 1 — USMCA mid-term review. Sheinbaum steel decree + preliminary deal pursuit.
05 Verdict
Thursday produced a higher-quality bounce than the prior week’s. The +1.13% marubozu reclaimed the 50-day SMA, the MACD narrowed for the first time since the bearish cross, and the RSI signal recovered from 41.86 to 46.55. The Sheinbaum trade strategy — steel decree as leverage + preliminary deal pursuit — is being read as pragmatic rather than escalatory. The IPC at 67,858 on the 50-SMA is at the pivot point: a hold above confirms the recovery toward 68,163 (Tenkan) and 68,423 (21-EMA); a fade below restores the bearish trend toward 67,202 (lower BB) and 64,134 (March lows).
Bias: Cautiously constructive — 50-SMA reclaimed, MACD narrows, confirmation needed. Thursday’s bounce is better than Friday April 24’s: it produced narrowing (not just stabilization), reclaimed the 50-SMA (not just the Tenkan), and came with a higher structural quality of buying. The test is whether May opens with follow-through. The CBP refunds, Banxico, and the evolving USMCA negotiation are the catalysts. The IPC at 67,858 with 10% earnings growth, nearshoring at $40.9 billion, and the World Cup in 41 days offers value — if the 50-SMA holds. April ends on the pivot. May begins.
Related coverage:
Previous IPC: IPC Falls to 67,097 as Steel Decree Hits
Sheinbaum steel decree: Mexico Requires Federal Projects to Use Local Steel (Reuters)
Economy guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Nearshoring, Banxico and the Peso
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.