Trump Extends Ceasefire Indefinitely — But Iran Calls Talks a “Waste of Time” — B3 Reopens After Holiday
Today’s Brazil morning call opens with the Ibovespa returning from the Tiradentes holiday to a dramatically altered landscape. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
The ceasefire didn’t expire. Minutes after Tuesday’s U.S. market close, Trump posted that he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely — “until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” He directed the military to “continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able.” The extension removes the April 21 cliff that the market had been pricing, but the terms are murky: Iran’s state media reported that Tehran’s negotiators called the talks a “waste of time.” Vance canceled his trip to Islamabad after reports of a lack of commitment from Tehran. The ceasefire is extended in name, but the diplomatic process is stalled.
Tuesday’s U.S. session was volatile. The S&P 500 fell 0.63% to 7,064 after erasing an early 400-point Dow gain on the Vance cancellation headlines. The Nasdaq dropped 0.59% to 24,260. Oil surged ~5% as the Strait remained closed. But after the close, futures reversed: S&P futures +0.52%, Nasdaq +0.68% on the ceasefire extension. Retail sales beat: headline +1.4% MoM (in-line with consensus), with growth relatively stable ex-gasoline. Apple fell 2.5% on Tim Cook’s September retirement announcement. Trump told CNBC he was “surprised” stocks rebounded during the war and had expected a 20% drop.
The Ibovespa last traded Monday at 196,132. Brazil was closed all day Tuesday for Tiradentes. The index reopens today with two days of global developments to absorb: the Vance cancellation, the selloff, the ceasefire extension, the retail data, the Iran “waste of time” rhetoric, and the futures rally. The USD/BRL last traded at R$4.9820 (chart from today) — still below R$5.00 for a seventh session with RSI at 33.62 (MA: 32.78). Bitcoin surged to $77,967 (+2.12%) overnight. UK CPI came in at +3.3% YoY (in-line). Wednesday’s calendar: UK CPI (already released), EIA Crude Inventories (10:30), BRL FX Flows (13:30), ECB Lagarde (13:30), 20-Year Bond Auction (13:00), EU Consumer Confidence (10:00), South Korea GDP Q1 overnight. Copom meets in 6 days. War Day 53.
Three Things That Matter
| Tuesday | S&P 500 −0.63% to 7,064 (Dow erased +400pt gain, ended −293pts / −0.59% at 49,149). Nasdaq −0.59% to 24,260. Apple −2.5% (Tim Cook September retirement). Vance canceled Islamabad trip — Tehran’s “lack of commitment.” Oil +~5%. Retail Sales beat: +1.4% MoM (in-line cons), ex-gas stable. 10Y yield rose to 4.31%. Trump on CNBC: “surprised” stocks rebounded, expected 20% drop. Citi warned $110 oil if Strait blocked another month. BRAZIL CLOSED (Tiradentes Day). Energy +1.1%, only 3 S&P sectors positive. Ibovespa last: 196,132 (Mon close) |
| After Close | CEASEFIRE EXTENDED INDEFINITELY. Trump: “I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” S&P futures +0.52%, Nasdaq +0.68% on the extension. Iran state media: negotiators called talks a “waste of time.” Blockade continues. Strait remains closed. Nuclear terms unresolved. The ceasefire is open-ended but the diplomatic channel is cold |
| Today | B3 REOPENS — Ibovespa absorbs 2 days of global developments. UK CPI: +3.3% YoY (in-line). UK PPI Input surged +5.4% YoY (oil pass-through). ECB Lane (03:40, 09:15). BoE Breeden (04:05). MBA Mortgages (07:00). EIA Crude Inventories (10:30, cons: −1.0M). EU Consumer Confidence (10:00, cons: −17.0). 20Y Bond Auction (13:00). BRL FX Flows (13:30). ECB Lagarde (13:30). ECB Nagel (13:00). South Korea GDP Q1 overnight (cons: +0.9% QoQ / +2.7% YoY). Copom in 6 days. War Day 53 |
Where We Left Off TUESDAY, APR 21 + OVERNIGHT
Tuesday’s U.S. session was a roller-coaster. The Dow opened +400 points on extension hopes, then reversed sharply when reports emerged that Vance had canceled his trip to Islamabad due to Tehran’s “lack of commitment” per the New York Times and Axios. The S&P 500 fell 0.63% to 7,064.01 — erasing a week of accumulation above 7,100. The Nasdaq shed 0.59% to 24,259.96. The Dow lost 293 points to 49,149.38. Apple was the heaviest weight on the S&P, dropping 2.5% after Tim Cook announced he would step down as CEO in September. Oil climbed ~5% as the Strait remained closed and Citigroup warned that $110 oil was possible if the blockade persisted another month.
Then, less than ten minutes after the close, Trump changed everything. He extended the ceasefire indefinitely, saying it was “warranted” to give Iran time to submit a proposal. The extension removes the cliff risk that had been building for two weeks but introduces a new dynamic: an open-ended ceasefire with no talks scheduled, no diplomatic momentum, and Iran calling negotiations a “waste of time.” The blockade continues. The Strait remains closed. The nuclear terms are unresolved. Futures rallied on the headline — S&P +0.52%, Nasdaq +0.68% — but the underlying picture is a ceasefire in name only, suspended in an ambiguous middle ground between peace and escalation.
Retail sales provided the session’s positive anchor: headline +1.4% MoM (matching consensus), with growth relatively stable ex-gasoline — confirming the consumer remained resilient through the first full month of the war. As covered in Monday’s Morning Call, the Ibovespa last traded at 196,132 before the Tiradentes holiday. The index reopens today having missed the Tuesday selloff, the Vance cancellation drama, and the after-hours ceasefire extension. The gap from Monday’s close to today’s open encapsulates three narrative shifts in 36 hours: talks stalling → ceasefire extended → Iran rejecting talks entirely.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF TUE, APR 21 CLOSE + OVERNIGHT
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 196,132 | Closed Tue (holiday) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9820 | Below R$5.00 (7th day) |
| S&P 500 | 7,064 | −0.63% (Tue) |
| S&P Futures | ~7,101 | +0.52% (overnight) |
| Dow | 49,149 | −0.59% (Tue) |
| WTI Crude | ~$91 | +~5% (Tue) |
| Bitcoin | $77,967 | +2.12% |
| UK CPI (Mar) | +3.3% YoY | In-line |
What to Watch WEDNESDAY CATALYSTS
The Ibovespa‘s reopen is the morning’s primary event for Brazil. The index last traded at 196,132 on Monday. It must now absorb: (1) Tuesday’s U.S. selloff (S&P −0.63%), (2) the after-hours ceasefire extension, (3) the Vance cancellation and Iran’s “waste of time” rhetoric, and (4) the overnight futures rally. The net signal is modestly positive — the ceasefire extension removes cliff risk, but the Strait remains closed and talks are stalled. Expect a flat-to-slightly-positive open as the market prices the mixed signals.
EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET (cons: −1.0M) is the week’s key energy data point — the draw pace under continued Strait closure determines whether $90 oil is sustainable or if the market is tightening further. EU Consumer Confidence at 10:00 (cons: −17.0) measures European sentiment under the blockade and elevated energy costs. The 20-Year Bond Auction at 13:00 tests fixed-income demand with yields elevated and war uncertainty unresolved.
ECB Lagarde at 13:30 is the central bank event of the day. Her post-extension commentary — particularly on how the indefinite ceasefire changes the ECB’s energy-price assumptions — will set European rate expectations. BRL FX Flows at 13:30 BRT will show whether capital continued flowing into Brazil through the Tiradentes holiday. South Korea Q1 GDP overnight (cons: +0.9% QoQ / +2.7% YoY) provides the next Asian growth datapoint after China’s 5.0% beat last week.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The Ibovespa chart shows Monday’s close repeated (B3 was closed Tuesday): O:195,734, H:196,724, L:195,282, C:196,132 (+0.20%). RSI at 65.53 (MA: 65.17) — balanced, bullish. MACD histogram at 3,885 (MACD: 3,330.71, signal: 554.33). The index enters the reopen with a constructive setup: RSI has fully reset from the 73+ overbought peak, the consolidation band of 195,000-197,000 is well-established, and the ceasefire extension removes the tail risk of an immediate collapse.
Resistance: 196,132 (last close) → 196,415 → 198,657 (ATH) → 200,000 (psychological).
Support: 195,540 → 193,808 → 190,503 / 190,215 → 187,197 → 186,825 → 178,026 (lower Bollinger) → 159,020 (200-day).
Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29
The ceasefire extension is constructive for the BCB — it removes the immediate risk of a ceasefire-lapse oil spike during the pre-decision period. The indefinite nature means the Copom can assess the April 28 meeting without the shadow of an imminent expiration. However, the Strait remaining closed and oil at ~$91 (up from Friday’s $82.59 low) tempers any aggressive dovish shift. The BRL at R$4.98 — now below R$5.00 for a seventh trading day — remains the strongest signal of structural capital inflow and imported-inflation compression.
The base case for April 28 remains: hold at 14.75% with forward guidance acknowledging “improved external conditions” (BRL appreciation, oil decline from peaks) while maintaining “vigilance” on the Strait status and nuclear negotiations. If a deal framework emerges before April 28, the BCB could strengthen the dovish signal toward a June cut. If Iran continues refusing talks, the BCB defaults to cautious patience. The key variable is no longer the ceasefire clock — it’s the Strait itself. Until tankers flow freely, the oil premium persists, and the BCB’s hands remain partially tied.
Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, APR 22
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Market | UK CPI: +3.3% YoY / +0.7% MoM (in-line). UK PPI Input surged +5.4% YoY (+4.4% MoM — massive oil pass-through). UK Core CPI +3.1% (below 3.2% cons). ECB Lane (03:40). BoE Breeden (04:05). South Africa CPI (04:00). German Buba Report (06:00). India RBI Minutes (07:30). MBA Mortgages (07:00) | MEDIUM |
| 09:15–10:30 | ECB Lane speaks (09:15). EU Consumer Confidence (10:00, cons: −17.0). EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30, cons: −1.0M) — draw pace under Strait closure. Cushing inventories, refinery utilization, gasoline/distillate stocks. Critical supply read for post-extension oil pricing | HIGH |
| 13:00–13:30 | 20-Year US Bond Auction (13:00). ECB Buba Nagel (13:00). ECB Lagarde speaks (13:30) — post-ceasefire-extension tone on energy/inflation. BRL Foreign Exchange Flows (13:30 BRT). Argentina Economic Activity (15:00, cons: +0.8% YoY) | HIGH |
| 19:00–21:30 | South Korea Q1 GDP (19:00, cons: +0.9% QoQ / +2.7% YoY). Australia PMIs (19:00). Japan PMIs (20:30). Australia Unemployment (21:30). Asian growth and activity data wall overnight | MEDIUM |
Latin America Markets TUESDAY CLOSE / CHART DATA
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 196,132 | Closed (Tiradentes) | 65.53 | Bullish |
| IPC (Mexico) | 68,809 | −1.82% | 50.35 | Neutral |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,282 | −0.21% | 49.70 | Neutral |
| IPSA (Chile) | 11,128 | −1.90% | 56.43 | Neutral |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,940,100 | +0.29% | 55.70 | Neutral |
Tuesday saw broad regional weakness as the ceasefire uncertainty hit LatAm markets. Chile’s IPSA dropped 1.90% to 11,128 with RSI falling sharply from 64.60 to 56.43 — the copper index is now back in neutral territory after its overbought surge. Mexico’s IPC fell 1.82% to 68,809 — the sharpest single-day decline in the region — as peso-sensitive stocks reacted to the Vance cancellation and renewed geopolitical risk. Colombia’s COLCAP slipped 0.21% to 2,282. Argentina’s MERVAL was the lone gainer at +0.29% to 2,940,100, insulated from global oil dynamics by its domestic peso dynamics. The Ibovespa’s absence on Tuesday means it missed the worst of the regional selloff. Today’s reopen occurs into a more positive tape: the ceasefire extension + U.S. futures up 0.5% should offset the Tuesday LatAm weakness. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the indefinite ceasefire shifts the narrative from countdown to endurance — a new phase that favors carry trades over momentum trades.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Oil rose ~5% Tuesday to ~$91 as the Strait remained closed and ceasefire uncertainty peaked. The extension removes the immediate risk of strike resumption but doesn’t change the physical supply picture — the Strait is blocked, the blockade continues, and only 3 ships crossed on Monday. Citigroup’s warning of $110 oil if the Strait remains closed for another month sets the upside risk. Today’s EIA data (10:30) will show the draw pace — a large draw (above −2.0M) would confirm supply tightening.
USD/BRL at R$4.9820 from the chart (O:4.9820, H:4.9820, L:4.9820, C:4.9820, 0.00%). RSI at 33.62 (MA: 32.78) — still deeply oversold but the RSI and MA are converging, suggesting the downward momentum is exhausting. MACD at −0.0087 (signal: −0.0561, MACD: −0.0648). The real has now traded below R$5.00 for seven sessions. Today’s BRL FX Flows data (13:30) will show whether capital inflows accelerated through the holiday period.
Bitcoin surged to $77,967 (chart: O:76,346, H:78,446, L:76,154, C:77,967, +2.12%). RSI at 64.90 (MA: 61.09) — healthy momentum breaking above $77K for the first time. The ceasefire extension removes tail risk across all asset classes, providing the risk-on backdrop crypto needs. Next target: $80,000.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| The indefinite ceasefire is the best possible outcome for markets — No expiration cliff. No strike resumption. The blockade continues as pressure but within a framework of non-escalation. This is exactly the “frozen conflict” scenario the market has been pricing — low-intensity, manageable, allowing earnings and AI narratives to drive equities. The S&P 500 at 7,064 (off the 7,126 ATH by just 0.9%) shows the bull structure intact.
Retail sales beat + consumer resilience = no recession — +1.4% MoM with stable ex-gas growth confirms the war hasn’t broken the consumer. Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.3% for Q1 is modest but positive. Earnings at 12.6% growth. The fundamental floor holds. BRL at R$4.98 + indefinite ceasefire = Copom’s dovish green light — The extension removes the pre-Copom tail risk entirely. BCB meets in 6 days with BRL at a 3-year high, oil off its peaks, and no expiration sword hanging overhead. The stage is set for the most dovish Copom guidance since the war began. |
Iran calling talks a “waste of time” means the diplomatic channel is dead — The ceasefire extension is unilateral. Iran didn’t agree to it — Trump imposed it. Tehran’s negotiators are refusing to engage. Vance canceled his trip. There is no framework, no proposal, no timeline. The “indefinite” ceasefire is really an “indefinite blockade” with no exit strategy. If Iran retaliates against the naval blockade, the ceasefire becomes meaningless.
The Strait is still closed — oil at $91 and rising — Citigroup warned of $110 if the blockade persists another month. Only 3 ships crossed Monday. The IRGC reversed Friday’s “open” declaration. An indefinite ceasefire with a closed Strait means indefinite elevated oil prices. Every week of $90+ oil adds cumulative inflation pressure that the PPI “transitory” thesis cannot absorb forever. Apple −2.5% on Cook retirement + market -0.6% Tuesday = the rally is vulnerable to non-war catalysts — The post-war euphoria has masked underlying fragility. When a single CEO retirement can move the S&P 0.6%, the market’s sensitivity to negative surprises is elevated. If Q1 earnings disappoint on forward guidance (citing war uncertainty, oil costs, consumer pullback), the 7,100 level fails. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The ceasefire didn’t expire — it evolved. Trump’s indefinite extension replaces a countdown with an open-ended framework: no shooting, no talks, continued blockade, Strait closed. It is the geopolitical equivalent of a freeze — uncomfortable but stable. The market has decided this is good enough. Futures are up 0.5% overnight. The S&P 500 is 0.9% from its ATH. The Nasdaq just completed its longest winning streak since 1992. Earnings growth at 12.6% provides the fundamental anchor.
For the Ibovespa, today’s reopen is the first trade since Monday. The index returns to a world where the ceasefire no longer has a clock, the BRL is at R$4.98 for a seventh day, and the Copom meets in six days. The 196,132 level should hold — the ceasefire extension is net positive for Brazilian assets, and the carry trade at 14.75% with a structurally appreciating BRL remains the most attractive proposition in emerging markets. The 200,000 target is now a function of time and deal progress, not an imminent sprint.
The war entered a new phase last night. Not peace. Not escalation. An indefinite pause — with the blockade as leverage and Iran’s silence as the defining uncertainty. The market has navigated eight weeks of the most volatile geopolitical environment since the Iraq War and emerged at all-time highs. The Ibovespa has gone from 180,000 to nearly 200,000. The BRL has gone from R$5.43 to R$4.98. The carry trade has delivered double-digit dollar returns. Whatever happens next — deal, escalation, or endless freeze — the structural thesis for Brazil has been validated by every session since the ceasefire began. Hold the carry. Watch the Strait. And prepare for the Copom meeting that could officially mark the beginning of the post-war easing cycle.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.