Precious Metals Report · February 24, 2026 · Covering February 23 Session
The Big Three
Gold surges 2% intraday to a three-week high above $5,200 before settling back to $5,173 on the daily close. The perfect storm of Trump’s 15% Section 122 tariffs, Iran nuclear brinkmanship, and a Supreme Court-triggered constitutional crisis over trade authority sent investors rushing into hard assets. Gold futures settled 2.8% higher at $5,225.60. CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian warned prices could rise sharply this week as Lunar New Year activity picks up.
Silver rockets over 5% intraday — one of its most volatile single-session gains this decade — before closing near $88.28. The gold/silver ratio compressed to 58.6 from recent levels, reflecting silver’s outperformance as both safe-haven and industrial demand converge. Silver’s dual role as a monetary metal and critical AI/solar material is driving structural demand that gold alone cannot capture.
Central bank buying re-accelerates: Goldman Sachs confirms sovereign accumulation is running above 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. This follows three consecutive years of 1,200+ tonne annual purchases. The structural shift is clear — the price floor has migrated from Asian consumer jewelry demand to Western sovereign and institutional accumulation, even as Indian demand remains subdued and China stays closed for Lunar New Year.
01Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) Close | $5,173.25 | −1.04% |
| Gold Session High | $5,249.29 | 3-week high |
| Gold Session Low | $5,144.69 | daily |
| Gold Futures (Apr) | $5,225.60 | +2.8% |
| Silver (XAG/USD) Close | $88.279 | +0.12% |
| Silver Session High | $88.893 | daily |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 58.6 | −1.2% |
| DXY | 97.70 | −0.01% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.03% | −5 bp |
| S&P 500 | 6,837.75 | −1.04% |
| VIX | 21.01 | +10.06% |
| Platinum | $2,151.00 | −$6.00 |
| Brent Crude | $70.49 | −1.14% |
02Price Drivers
| Driver | Gold | Silver | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff escalation | Bullish | Bullish | 15% Section 122 tariffs ignite safe-haven demand |
| Iran nuclear deadline | Bullish | Bullish | 10–15 day window; war premium priced in |
| Central bank buying | Bullish | Neutral | 585 t/quarter sovereign accumulation in 2026 |
| Dollar weakness | Bullish | Bullish | DXY near 97.50 on SCOTUS tariff ruling fallout |
| AI/solar demand | Neutral | Bullish | Silver’s industrial role in data centers and solar |
| Equity selloff | Bullish | Bullish | S&P −1.04%, Dow −822 pts, rotation into metals |
03Market Commentary
Monday’s session delivered the clearest expression yet of 2026’s great rotation: out of risk assets, into hard money. Gold surged more than 2% intraday to $5,206.39, hitting its highest since January 30, while silver rocketed over 5% to a two-week high near $87.23 before settling at $88.28 on the daily close. The move was driven by a confluence of catalysts that reinforced precious metals as the default destination for capital fleeing uncertainty — the Supreme Court’s invalidation of IEEPA tariffs, Trump’s retaliatory 15% Section 122 levies, and the ticking clock on Iran’s nuclear deadline.
The dollar’s slide toward DXY 97.50 amplified the move. The SCOTUS ruling implied the U.S. Treasury may need to refund levies already paid by importers, according to TD Securities’ Bart Melek, while the new Section 122 authority — unused since the Nixon era — created a legal vacuum that markets struggled to price. Treasuries rallied in parallel, with the 10-year yield dropping 5 basis points to 4.03%, its lowest in nearly three months. The flight to quality was unambiguous: gold and Treasuries up, equities and crypto down.
Silver’s outperformance relative to gold is structurally significant. The gold/silver ratio compressed to 58.6, reflecting the white metal’s unique dual-demand profile. Unlike gold, silver benefits from both safe-haven flows and industrial consumption — particularly in AI data centers and solar panel manufacturing. The Silver Institute’s 2026 outlook, published February 10, projects sustained industrial demand as the green transition accelerates. Goldman Sachs’ confirmation of re-accelerating central bank purchases, averaging 585 tonnes per quarter, adds a structural bid beneath gold that is largely absent for silver but indirectly supportive through ratio compression.
The stagflationary backdrop makes precious metals the cleanest macro trade available. U.S. Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4% while Core PCE remains at 3.0%, a textbook late-cycle environment that historically favors gold. The contrast with crypto is stark: as Bitcoin plunges to $63,000 and the Fear & Greed Index hits 5, gold surges past $5,200. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report put it bluntly, calling into question Bitcoin’s status as a credible inflation hedge or safe-haven alternative, given its volatility. The debate about “digital gold” versus physical gold appears settled — at least for this cycle.
04Technical Analysis
Gold Daily (1D):
XAU/USD closed at $5,173.25 after posting a bearish reversal candle from the session high of $5,249.29. The Tenkan-sen sits exactly at $5,173.25, providing immediate equilibrium support, while the Kijun-sen at $5,144.26 offers secondary support just below. The Ichimoku cloud spans $5,022–$5,034 (Span B at $5,022.08, Span A at $5,033.59), well below current price, confirming the bullish trend structure. The 200-day SMA at $3,930.02 is 24% below price — gold has been in a parabolic trend since late 2024.
The Bollinger Bands show price trading in the upper half: BB upper at $5,374.66, mid at $5,021.10, lower at $4,667.55. The MACD reads 99.70/97.92 with a slim positive histogram of 1.78, suggesting bullish momentum is intact but flattening after the volatile intraday reversal. The RSI at 58.82 (fast) and 55.54 (slow) sits comfortably in neutral territory — neither overbought nor oversold — leaving room for continuation in either direction. The $5,200 level, tested and rejected intraday, becomes the immediate battle line for bulls.
Silver Daily (1D):
XAG/USD closed at $88.279, nearly unchanged on the daily after a wild intraday range of $84.92–$88.89. The Tenkan-sen at $88.279 aligns precisely with the close, while the Kijun-sen at $86.653 provides nearby support. The cloud at $82.70–$84.32 sits below, confirming the bullish structure. The 200-SMA at $52.895 underscores silver’s parabolic advance — price is 67% above the long-term average. The Bollinger Bands are extremely wide (upper $92.83, lower $60.97), reflecting the exceptional volatility regime silver has entered since the February flash crash and recovery.
Momentum is transitioning from bearish to neutral. The MACD histogram has flipped positive at 0.377 while the MACD line at −0.578 and signal at −0.956 are converging toward a bullish crossover — a signal that, if confirmed, would mark the first positive MACD cross since late January’s record run. The RSI reads 54.30 (fast) and 46.80 (slow), both in neutral territory with a slight upward bias. Silver needs to clear $91.21 (BB upper vicinity) to confirm a new leg higher; failure risks a pullback toward the Kijun at $86.65.
| Gold S/R Levels | ||
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | $5,594 | ATH (Jan 29) |
| Resistance 2 | $5,375 | BB upper |
| Resistance 1 | $5,249 | Session high |
| Pivot | $5,173 | Tenkan-sen / close |
| Support 1 | $5,144 | Kijun-sen |
| Support 2 | $5,034 | Cloud top (Span A) |
| Support 3 | $4,900 | Feb round number |
| Silver S/R Levels | ||
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | $107.67 | Jan high zone |
| Resistance 2 | $92.83 | BB upper |
| Resistance 1 | $91.21 | Recent swing high |
| Pivot | $88.28 | Tenkan-sen / close |
| Support 1 | $86.65 | Kijun-sen |
| Support 2 | $84.32 | Cloud top (Span A) |
| Support 3 | $80.48 | BB mid / round number |
05Forward Look
Iran Deadline and War Premium.
Trump’s 10–15 day deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear deal expires in early March. Intelligence reports suggest Tehran is nearing enrichment thresholds, and the U.S. has been positioning military assets across the Middle East. Any escalation — or de-escalation — will move gold by $100+ in either direction. A diplomatic breakthrough would trigger a relief selloff, though the stagflationary floor near $5,000 should hold.
State of the Union and Tariff Litigation.
Trump’s address Tuesday evening may preview the administration’s legal strategy for defending Section 122 tariffs against expected court challenges. The 150-day statutory limit creates a natural expiration window, but uncertainty over scope and duration keeps the safe-haven bid alive. Any escalation rhetoric strengthens gold; any conciliation eases the premium.
Fed Speakers and March Data Gauntlet.
A parade of Fed speakers this week could illuminate the rate-cut path following Waller’s “coin flip” framing. February NFP (March 6) and CPI (March 11) are the macro triggers ahead of the March 17–18 FOMC. Lower rates increase the appeal of non-yielding bullion; JPMorgan projects gold averaging $5,055 in Q4 2026 with $5,400 by year-end 2027 on the basis of continued easing.
Verdict
Gold’s structural bull market remains the cleanest macro trade of 2026. Central bank buying at 585 tonnes per quarter, a weakening dollar, stagflationary growth, and the simultaneous collapse of the “digital gold” narrative all converge to support prices above $5,000. The January ATH at $5,594.82 is the next upside target; Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan bracket year-end forecasts between $5,055 and $5,400.
Monday’s intraday reversal from $5,249 to $5,173 on the daily close warrants attention but not alarm. The RSI at 58.82 is neutral, the MACD histogram remains positive, and the cloud structure below $5,034 provides deep support. Any pullback toward $5,144 (Kijun-sen) is a buying opportunity as long as the $5,000 psychological floor holds.
Silver is the high-beta play with asymmetric upside. The gold/silver ratio at 58.6 has room to compress further if industrial demand accelerates — particularly from AI and solar sectors. The pending MACD bullish crossover on the daily chart, if confirmed, would be the first since late January and could catalyze a move toward the $91–$93 BB upper resistance zone. The ATH at $121.88 remains distant but the structural demand profile supports continuation.
Bias: BULLISH GOLD · BULLISH SILVER · structural uptrend, geopolitical premium expanding