Key Market Events for the Week of May 11–15, 2026

Week Overview

The oil-shock inflation reckoning continues. US April CPI (Tuesday 8:30 AM, cons. +0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY per Kiplinger, prior 0.9% / 3.3%) is the week’s global anchor — Polymarket prices the 3.7% outcome at 39% probability and 3.8% at 30%, while the Cleveland Fed nowcasts 3.56%.

The monthly deceleration from 0.9% to 0.6% would represent the first step-down since the oil shock began, but the annual rate accelerating from 3.3% to 3.7% keeps the Fed firmly on hold — CME FedWatch shows zero rate cuts priced for 2026. Core CPI (cons. 0.3% MoM, prior 0.2%) will determine whether the oil shock is broadening beyond energy — RBC Economics forecasts core peaking at 3.0% in Q2 as tariff pass-through materializes.

Wednesday’s PPI (cons. +0.5% MoM) confirms the producer pipeline, with Core PPI (cons. 0.3% vs. 0.1% prior) the potential acceleration signal. Brazil’s April IPCA (Tuesday 8:00 AM, prior 0.88% MoM / 4.14% YoY) arrives 30 minutes before US CPI — the Copom’s key gauge for the June 17–18 meeting.

Argentina’s April CPI (Thursday, prior 3.4% MoM / 32.6% YoY) tracks the Milei disinflation trajectory ahead of October elections. UK Q1 GDP (Thursday, cons. +0.6% QoQ) would mark the strongest quarter since Q2 2024. Eurozone’s second Q1 GDP estimate (Wednesday, cons. 0.1%) and German ZEW (Tuesday, cons. −29.1 vs. −17.2) frame the post-ECB landscape.

US Retail Sales (Thursday, cons. +0.6% MoM) and NY Empire State Manufacturing (Friday, cons. 7.30) complete the US picture. Colombia delivers Q1 GDP Friday, rounding out the LATAM growth picture. India closed Tuesday (Ambedkar Jayanti).

Three Themes That Will Define the Week

1

CPI + PPI — the oil shock’s second month in the data: Tuesday’s April CPI (8:30 AM, cons. +0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY per Kiplinger) captures the second full month of the Hormuz-driven energy shock. The monthly deceleration from March’s 0.9% suggests the sharpest gasoline price spike has passed — AAA data shows the national average stabilized above $4 in April after crossing that threshold in mid-March. But the annual rate accelerating from 3.3% to 3.7% would mark the highest since Q3 2023. Core CPI (cons. 0.3% MoM, prior 0.2%) is the market’s focus: RBC Economics forecasts core CPI peaking at 3.0% in Q2 as tariff pass-through and OER basket reweighting take effect. A 0.3% core print pushes the annual rate toward 2.8%, the highest since late 2025. Wednesday’s PPI (cons. +0.5% MoM, matching March) shows whether the producer pipeline remains loaded — Core PPI accelerating to 0.3% (from 0.1%) would signal broadening cost pressures beyond energy. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Tuesday) and OPEC Monthly Report (Wednesday) update oil price and demand forecasts.

2

LATAM inflation triple — Brazil IPCA, Argentina CPI, Colombia GDP: Three LATAM economies report data that defines their monetary trajectories. Brazil’s full-month April IPCA (Tuesday 8:00 AM, prior 0.88% MoM / 4.14% YoY) is the Copom’s primary gauge ahead of the June 17–18 meeting. The BCB’s 2026 IPCA forecast stands at 3.9%, but the trailing rate has exceeded 4.0% since March — a reading above 0.90% would constrain the committee to 25 bps at best, while below 0.80% clears the runway for a 50 bps acceleration. Argentina’s April CPI (Thursday 3:00 PM, prior 3.4% MoM / 32.6% YoY) is politically loaded: the March acceleration from 2.9% to 3.4% raised concerns about the sustainability of the Milei disinflation — a second consecutive reading above 3.0% heading into the October 26 legislative elections would arm the opposition. Colombia’s Q1 GDP (Friday 12:00 PM, prior 2.3% YoY / 0.1% QoQ) completes the regional growth picture under BanRep’s aggressive tightening cycle. Brazil also delivers retail sales (Wednesday), services sector growth (Friday), and the IGP-10 wholesale index (Monday).

3

UK Q1 GDP + EZ GDP + ZEW — the European growth and sentiment picture: Thursday’s UK Q1 GDP (2:00 AM, cons. +0.6% QoQ vs. +0.1% in Q4) would represent a sharp acceleration — the strongest quarter since Q2 2024 — though monthly GDP for March (cons. −0.2%) suggests the quarter ended weakly. The BoE, which held at 3.75% on April 30, will weigh this growth data against March CPI at 3.3% for its June decision. The Eurozone’s second Q1 GDP estimate (Wednesday, cons. 0.1% QoQ, confirming the flash) arrives with employment data and EZ industrial production. Germany’s ZEW (Tuesday, cons. −29.1 vs. −17.2) is expected to plunge further — a reading below −25 would mark the worst since the initial Hormuz shock, signaling that German financial analysts see no near-term recovery. US Retail Sales (Thursday, cons. +0.6% MoM vs. +1.7% prior) are expected to decelerate sharply from March’s gasoline-inflated surge — the control group is the genuine spending signal. The ECB Economic Bulletin (Friday) expands on the April decision’s rationale.

Week in Context

Last week delivered the post-super-week labor market verdict: NFP (cons. +73K), Banxico’s rate decision, the Copom minutes, ISM Services, and Michigan sentiment all landed in a single compressed week. The RBA hiked to 4.35%, making Australia an outlier tightener. This week shifts from labor to prices — the CPI-PPI one-two punch on Tuesday-Wednesday is the quarter’s inflation centerpiece. March CPI came in at 3.3% YoY (0.9% MoM) with core at 2.6% (0.2% MoM) — both in line with expectations, confirming the oil shock was driving the headline while core remained contained. April’s data will test whether that containment holds: if core CPI prints at 0.3% and core PPI accelerates to 0.3% (from 0.1%), the narrative shifts from “transitory energy spike” toward “broadening inflation.” For LATAM, the week’s data density is concentrated in Brazil (IPCA, retail sales, services, IGP-10, Focus) and Argentina (CPI), with Colombia’s Q1 GDP closing Friday. The Copom meets June 17–18 and needs IPCA, retail sales, and services data to calibrate the cut pace. Germany’s ZEW plunging to −29.1 would confirm the European sentiment recession is deepening despite the ECB’s hold. UK Q1 GDP at +0.6% would be a rare bright spot. The FOMC next meets June 16–17 — this week’s CPI and PPI are the critical inputs.

Brazil IGP-10 + Focus survey. Existing home sales. BoJ Summary of Opinions overnight.

A positioning day before Tuesday’s CPI double. Brazil’s IGP-10 wholesale inflation (prior +2.9% MoM) provides the leading price signal — if the oil-shock-driven wholesale surge from April continues, IPCA pressure follows. The Focus survey is critical pre-Copom intelligence: the market’s 2026 IPCA and year-end Selic expectations will reveal whether last week’s Copom minutes were read as hawkish or dovish. US Existing Home Sales (cons. 4.05M vs. 3.98M) test whether the housing market is stabilizing under 6.4%+ mortgage rates. The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its April decision overnight will show whether any board members pushed for a near-term hike to 1.00%.

CPI DAY — US + BRAZIL + GERMAN ZEW — CPI DAY. US April CPI + Brazil IPCA simultaneously. German ZEW collapse. German CPI final. EIA energy outlook. India closed (Ambedkar Jayanti).

The week’s gravitational center. Brazil IPCA (8:00 AM) arrives 30 minutes before US CPI, creating a 30-minute window where LATAM rates markets react first. If IPCA comes in above 0.90% MoM, Brazilian DI futures reprice immediately toward a 25 bps Copom ceiling; below 0.80% and the 50 bps acceleration trade gains credibility. Then US CPI (8:30 AM, cons. +0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY per Kiplinger) hits — Polymarket prices the 3.7% annual outcome at 39% and 3.8% at 30%. The Cleveland Fed nowcasts 3.56%, slightly below consensus. Core CPI at 0.3% (vs. 0.2% prior) would push the annual core rate toward 2.8% — RBC Economics expects core to peak at 3.0% in Q2. German ZEW (5:00 AM, cons. −29.1 vs. −17.2) plunging would confirm European business sentiment is in freefall. Mexico industrial production (prior −1.3% YoY) adds the post-Banxico manufacturing picture. Goolsbee speaks at 1:00 PM — the dovish Chicago Fed president will be processing the CPI data in real time.

PPI + EZ GDP + OPEC + LAGARDE — US PPI. EZ GDP 2nd estimate + industrial production. French CPI final. Brazil retail sales + FX flows. OPEC report. BoC deliberations. Lagarde speaks. 30-Year bond auction.

The inflation pipeline + European growth confirmation. US PPI (8:30 AM, cons. +0.5% MoM, matching March) shows whether producer costs are stabilizing. Core PPI (cons. 0.3% vs. 0.1% prior) is the market’s focus — acceleration from 0.1% to 0.3% would signal that non-energy costs are beginning to rise, weakening the ‘transitory energy’ narrative. March PPI ex-food/energy/transport rose only 0.2% MoM, per BLS data, suggesting the pipeline was still energy-concentrated — April will test whether that containment holds. EZ GDP second estimate (5:00 AM, cons. 0.1% QoQ) arrives with employment data — a downward revision to 0.0% would increase ECB easing pressure despite elevated inflation. Brazil Retail Sales (8:00 AM, prior +0.6% MoM) tests consumer resilience under the Selic’s weight. OPEC’s monthly report will update demand and production forecasts amid Hormuz disruption. Lagarde speaks (3:15 PM) — her post-ECB-decision commentary on the inflation-growth tradeoff will shape June 4 meeting expectations.

UK GDP + US RETAIL SALES + ARGENTINA CPI — UK Q1 GDP. US Retail Sales. Argentina April CPI. EZ final CPI. China credit data. Fed speakers (Schmid, Barr, Williams). Lagarde speaks.

A three-continent data session. UK Q1 GDP (2:00 AM, cons. +0.6% QoQ vs. +0.1%) would mark the strongest quarter since Q2 2024 — but March monthly GDP (cons. −0.2%) suggests the quarter ended weakly, meaning the BoE can’t extrapolate the strength. EZ final April CPI (5:00 AM) confirms or revises the flash — core at 2.8% (vs. 2.9% flash) easing would modestly support the ECB doves. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM, cons. +0.6% vs. +1.7%) are expected to decelerate sharply from March’s gasoline-inflated surge — the control group is the genuine spending signal, stripping out autos, gas, building materials, and food services. Argentina CPI (3:00 PM, prior 3.4% MoM / 32.6% YoY) closes the LATAM inflation picture — the Milei government needs a return below 3.0% to maintain the disinflation narrative; a second consecutive reading above 3.0% heading into October elections would be politically damaging. China credit data (5:00 AM, cons. TSF 1,500B) shows April lending momentum after the Q1 front-loading. Lagarde, Barr, and Williams speak across the day.

NY EMPIRE STATE + COLOMBIA Q1 GDP — NY Empire State. Colombia Q1 GDP + industrial production + retail sales. US industrial production + capacity utilization. Brazil services. ECB Economic Bulletin.

The week’s closing act. NY Empire State Manufacturing (8:30 AM, cons. 7.30 vs. 11.00) provides the first May factory read — a deceleration from April’s strong 11.00 is expected, but remaining above zero keeps the expansion narrative intact. Colombia’s Q1 GDP (12:00 PM, prior 2.3% YoY / 0.1% QoQ) is the week’s LATAM anchor — with BanRep’s benchmark rate at 11.25% or higher, a deceleration below 2.0% would signal the tightening is constraining the real economy. Industrial production (prior +1.4%) and retail sales (prior +10.9%) arriving at 11:00 AM provide sector-level context. Brazil Services (8:00 AM, prior +0.1% MoM / +0.5% YoY) is the demand-side Copom input — near-zero growth reinforces the easing case. US Industrial Production (cons. +0.2% vs. −0.5%) is expected to recover from March’s contraction. The ECB Economic Bulletin expands on the April decision’s rationale. Baker Hughes closes the energy data week.

The Bottom Line

Two inflation gauges, two GDP reports, three LATAM CPI prints, one confidence collapse. Tuesday’s CPI is the week’s gravitational center — the 3.7% headline is expected and largely priced, but core CPI at 0.3% (vs. 0.2% prior) would push the annual core rate toward 2.8% and confirm that the oil shock is beginning to bleed into non-energy prices. That’s the reading that matters for the Fed’s June 16–17 meeting. Wednesday’s PPI validates or challenges the pipeline story. For LATAM, Brazil’s IPCA landing 30 minutes before US CPI creates a rare dual-inflation trading session — BRL and DI futures will react to IPCA at 8:00 AM, then reprice again on US CPI at 8:30 AM. The Copom needs this number to calibrate the June cut: below 0.80% MoM means 50 bps is live; above 0.90% means 25 bps is the ceiling. Argentina’s CPI Thursday is politically existential — the Milei disinflation story either resumes or stalls six months before elections. Colombia’s Q1 GDP Friday completes the regional picture, testing whether the hemisphere’s most aggressive tightening cycle is achieving its intended cooling effect. UK Q1 GDP at +0.6% and US Retail Sales deceleration frame the developed-market outlook. German ZEW at −29.1 confirms European confidence is in recession. This is a week where inflation data writes the next chapter of the rate cycle. The core is what counts.