A Record That Matters More Here Than Anywhere Else
Ecuador’s international reserves hit $11.86 billion in February, the Finance Ministry announced — an all-time high. When Daniel Noboa took office in December 2023, reserves stood at $4.45 billion, meaning they have grown by $7.4 billion in just over two years.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Ecuador news and Latin American financial news.
In most countries, that would be a footnote. In Ecuador, it is existential. The country adopted the U.S. dollar in 2000 after a devastating crisis. It cannot print money — every dollar circulating must be backed by external assets. When reserves fall, the financial system seizes up.
What Noboa’s Government Claims
The Finance Ministry credited “responsible management and fiscal discipline.” Supporters point to a dramatic fall in country risk — from over 2,000 basis points to around 460 — and Ecuador’s return to bond markets with issuances at 8.75 and 9.25 percent that drew strong demand.
The IMF has praised Ecuador’s performance, noting the economy is “recovering much faster than anticipated” after a 2 percent contraction in 2024 caused by drought, blackouts, and surging violence. Noboa won reelection in April 2025 — the first Ecuadorian president to do so since 2013 — a vote markets read as a signal of continuity.
What Critics See Behind the Numbers
The reserve buildup did not come from a booming economy. Much was financed by borrowing — by September 2025, Ecuador had drawn $6.6 billion from the IMF, recently augmented by $1 billion. Public debt stands at roughly 49 percent of GDP.
Former Economy Minister Mauricio Pozo has warned spending is unsustainable, projecting the deficit at $4.6 billion — about 4 percent of GDP, nearly double the IMF‘s target. Oil revenues are declining: production is at a two-decade low, and falling prices are compounding the shortfall.
Security, Strikes, and Structural Fragility
The economy cannot be separated from the security crisis. Ecuador recorded Latin America’s highest homicide rate in 2025. A 31-day national strike over diesel subsidy cuts and a failed referendum on constitutional reform raised what Fitch called “ongoing governability challenges.”
The left sees Noboa’s model as IMF-imposed austerity at the expense of ordinary Ecuadorians — cutting subsidies and borrowing to paper over gaps. The right sees a pragmatic president stabilizing a dollarized economy with no other safety net. Both readings contain truth.
Why It Matters Beyond Ecuador
For dollarized economies — and for countries considering it — Ecuador is a real-time case study. Record reserves prove the model can be stabilized. But the path there — $6.6 billion from the IMF, rising debt, declining oil, and a record-violence year — shows the price of stability when you cannot print your own currency.
For more context, read Brazil’s Morning Call and the Latin American Pulse.