Colombia’s latest tax report sounds like good news. Between January and October, the tax authority DIAN collected 249.12 trillion pesos (about $66 billion), 11.3% more than in the same period of 2024.
In October alone, revenue jumped almost 16% to 19.72 trillion pesos (about $5 billion). Behind the upbeat percentages lies a harder reality. The state is still short of its 300-trillion-peso target – 300 trillion pesos (about $79 billion) – in the medium-term fiscal plan.
With only two months left, Colombia risks ending the year with a revenue gap and less room to fund its promises. Fiscal watchdogs say revenue could finish more than eight trillion pesos (just over $2 billion) below plan.
Who is paying explains much of the tension. Roughly one third of all revenue comes from income-tax withholding on salaries. Another fifth comes from VAT and other sales taxes, followed by customs duties and a mix of smaller levies.
The formal middle class, registered companies and consumers in the official economy carry most of the weight, while large parts of the informal sector contribute little.
To close the gap, DIAN is relying less on broad reform and more on pressure. “Active control” – chasing old debts, using electronic invoices to spot under-reporting, tightening audits – has already brought in about 48 trillion pesos (around $13 billion) this year.
The authority is also locked in a dispute over a massive VAT bill for state oil company Ecopetrol, a signal that no big taxpayer is off limits. For expats and foreign investors, the story behind the numbers is about predictability.
A country that repeatedly misses its tax targets, while expanding the size and reach of the state, is likely to keep searching for new revenue sources. That can mean extra charges on digital platforms, new import taxes on online shopping, or sudden changes in business rules instead of steady spending discipline.
Colombia is not in immediate crisis. Growth continues, and tax receipts are rising. But the gap between what the government collects and what it has promised to spend is a warning sign about tomorrow’s political decision on who will be asked to pay more.