Colombia’s Right Splits Between De la Espriella and Valencia 19 Days Before the Vote
Key Facts
—First round: Colombia’s presidential election is set for May 31, 2026, with a runoff scheduled for June 21 if no candidate clears 50%.
—Three-way state of play: Iván Cepeda of the Pacto Histórico leads at 38% per Guarumo; Abelardo de la Espriella sits at 23.9%; Paloma Valencia at 22.8%.
—AtlasIntel for Semana: Cepeda 38%, De la Espriella 29.9%, Valencia 21.2% — with De la Espriella beating Cepeda 47%-42% in a hypothetical runoff.
—Polymarket pivot: the global prediction market now gives De la Espriella a 43% probability of winning the presidency, ahead of Cepeda at 41% and Valencia at 16%.
—Vargas Lleras vacuum: the former vice president died May 8 at age 65, removing Cambio Radical’s natural leader less than four weeks before the vote.
Colombian conservatism has 19 days to decide whether it wants an outsider lawyer with a Polymarket lead or an uribista senator backed by the entire traditional right. The choice between De la Espriella and Valencia will likely decide whether Iván Cepeda becomes Gustavo Petro’s chosen successor in June.
Who are the two candidates competing for the right-wing vote?
Abelardo de la Espriella is a controversial criminal-defense attorney running on the Defensores de la Patria movement under the Movimiento Salvación Nacional banner, positioning himself as the genuine outsider. Paloma Valencia is a senator from the Centro Democrático, the party founded by former president Álvaro Uribe, with Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate and the support of most traditional right-wing parties.
“Dear Paloma, the campaign is not for games,” De la Espriella wrote in a recent X post attacking Valencia as part of the establishment. Political consultant Camilo Granada told America’s Quarterly that “Paloma is between a rock and a hard place — if she’s perceived as too soft, her uribista base will abandon her for Abelardo; if she’s perceived as too tough, she’ll alienate centrist voters and lose in the first round,” as reported by La Tercera.
What do the latest polls actually show?
Three pollsters disagree on the order. Guarumo and EcoAnalítica show De la Espriella narrowly ahead at 23.9% to Valencia’s 22.8% in a statistical tie. Centro Nacional de Consultoría has De la Espriella at 20.4% and Valencia at 15.6%, a clear five-point gap. AtlasIntel for Semana gives De la Espriella 29.9% versus Valencia 21.2%, the widest spread of all major surveys.
| Pollster | Cepeda | De la Espriella | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guarumo / EcoAnalítica (Apr 2026) | 38.0% | 23.9% | 22.8% |
| Centro Nacional de Consultoría | leader | 20.4% | 15.6% |
| AtlasIntel for Semana | 38.0% | 29.9% | 21.2% |
| Polymarket probability | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| Runoff vs Cepeda (Guarumo) | — | 40.4% (technical tie) | 44.6% (wins) |
Source: El Tiempo, Infobae and Semana polling summaries, April-May 2026.
The strategic paradox is sharp. De la Espriella consistently outperforms Valencia in first-round intent, but Valencia performs better against Cepeda in runoff scenarios. Guarumo shows Valencia beating Cepeda 44.6% to 40.1%, while De la Espriella merely ties him at 40.4% to 40.6%. Voters maximizing for “beat Cepeda” have to choose Valencia; voters following momentum have to choose De la Espriella.
Why has Álvaro Uribe broken with De la Espriella?
Asked about De la Espriella on Blu Radio, former president Uribe was blunt: “No, I don’t want to make references to that. Néstor, my duty is to talk about Paloma Valencia and work intensely.” The line confirmed what Centro Democrático insiders had signaled for weeks — Uribe’s full weight is behind Valencia, leaving De la Espriella to court the uribista grassroots without uribismo’s institutional infrastructure.
The Uribe-Valencia alliance has not been frictionless. When Uribe was floated as a possible defense minister in a Valencia government, the suggestion damaged her independence narrative; Uribe then publicly declined the role, but the damage lingered. Cambio Radical, the party of late former vice president Germán Vargas Lleras, supports De la Espriella — meaning the two right-wing factions that have spent the last decade fighting each other are now backing different candidates against a unified left, per Pulzo.
How does the Vargas Lleras death change the math?
Germán Vargas Lleras died May 8 of a brain tumor at age 65, days before President Petro decreed national mourning. Vargas Lleras led Cambio Radical and was the natural arbiter of the non-uribista right-wing coalition. His death leaves Cambio Radical without a leader at the exact moment Colombian conservatism most needs one, and removes the kingmaker who might have brokered a De la Espriella-Valencia alliance before May 31.
Vargas Lleras spent his last year warning that a Cepeda victory would mean what he called “the FARC president succeeding Petro the M-19 president, to guarantee the M-19’s return in 2030.” His daughter Clemencia made an explicit call from the funeral asking voters “not to hand over the country to Cepeda and his henchmen,” to which President Petro retorted that “this country is no longer about hereditary surnames.” María Claudia Tarazona, widow of assassinated senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, has publicly endorsed Valencia, per El Tiempo.
What should LATAM investors and analysts watch next?
- Right-wing alliance window: a Valencia-De la Espriella pact before May 31 would consolidate the anti-Petro vote and almost certainly force Cepeda into a losing runoff; absent that, the right splits and Cepeda wins clean.
- May 31 first-round outcome: if Cepeda clears 50% outright, Pacto Histórico continuity is locked in for August inauguration; if not, the 21-day runoff sprint to June 21 begins.
- De la Espriella runoff scenarios: Guarumo says he ties Cepeda; AtlasIntel says he beats him by five points. The next two pollster cycles will determine whether his Polymarket lead is real or speculative.
- Cambio Radical succession: who claims Vargas Lleras’s leadership decides whether the party formally backs De la Espriella, breaks for Valencia, or splits its base across both.
- Security risk to candidates: Miguel Uribe Turbay was assassinated during the prior campaign cycle; De la Espriella has already alleged a sniper plot. Colombian electoral violence remains a non-zero risk through June 21.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Colombia vote?
The first round is on May 31, 2026, with a runoff on June 21 if no candidate exceeds 50% of the valid vote. The winner takes office on August 7, 2026 for a four-year term, replacing outgoing president Gustavo Petro.
Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?
A controversial criminal-defense attorney running on the Defensores de la Patria movement under the Movimiento Salvación Nacional banner. He positions himself as a populist outsider against the political establishment, with the highest spending of any candidate at over 64 billion pesos disclosed, per electoral filings.
Who is Paloma Valencia?
A senator and presidential candidate of the Centro Democrático, the party founded by former president Álvaro Uribe in 2013. Her running mate is former DANE statistics director Juan Daniel Oviedo, a technocratic profile aimed at expanding her base beyond hard uribismo.
Why does Valencia outperform De la Espriella in runoff polls?
Polls suggest Valencia draws more centrist voters than De la Espriella, whose populist style alienates moderate Colombians. Guarumo shows 42% of voters would never vote for Cepeda, but only 17% would never vote for Valencia versus 18% who would never vote for De la Espriella — narrow but consistent gaps that compound in second-round dynamics.
Could the right unite before May 31?
A formal Valencia-De la Espriella alliance remains improbable given the personal animosity between the campaigns and the public Uribe-De la Espriella break. The window for unity narrows daily, and an alliance after the first round is more plausible than one before — provided either candidate clears the runoff threshold.
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Sources
- El Tiempo — Guarumo and EcoAnalítica poll with runoff scenarios for April 2026: eltiempo.com
- Infobae — Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll showing De la Espriella ahead of Valencia: infobae.com
- Infobae / El Heraldo — Polymarket and AtlasIntel for Semana with De la Espriella at 43% probability: elheraldo.co
- La Tercera — analysis of the right-wing split and Camilo Granada commentary: latercera.com
- Pulzo — Uribe break with De la Espriella in Blu Radio interview: pulzo.com
- El Espectador — La Mesa Redonda analysis of the right-wing fragmentation: elespectador.com
Published: 2026-05-12T17:00:00-03:00 · Updated: 2026-05-12T17:00:00-03:00 · Dateline: BOGOTÁ