Colombia’s Petro Drops Below 50 Percent for First Time in Months
Key Facts
— —Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro dropped to 49.3 percent approval in the CNC poll released by Cambio on May 3, down from 50.9 percent in March 2026.
— —The Petro approval slide reverses a three-month recovery and arrives less than 100 days before the August handover, with Pacto Histórico’s Iván Cepeda leading the May 31 first-round race.
— —Disapproval registered at 43.6 percent, with 7.2 percent declining to answer, and the result tracks recent diplomatic tensions with Ecuador and the close of Petro’s last legislative term.
Most outgoing Latin American presidents leave office unpopular. Petro had defied that pattern. The latest CNC poll suggests the trend is no longer guaranteed.
The Petro approval slide registered at 49.3 percent in the CNC poll commissioned by Cambio magazine and released on May 3. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the result is the first reversal after a three-month rise that had taken Petro’s favorability up to 50.9 percent in March from 38 percent in November 2025.
The decline is modest at 1.6 percentage points, but it lands at a politically sensitive moment — fewer than 30 days before the May 31 first-round vote and roughly 100 days before Petro hands the presidential sash to his successor.
What Drove the Petro Approval Slide
Three factors weigh on the latest reading. The first is the diplomatic clash with Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, who alleged the Colombian government had links to the Choneros criminal organization, prompting Petro to threaten legal action.
The second is the deteriorating security situation along the Cúcuta-Ureña border. Restrictions on the Francisco de Paula Santander bridge took effect on May 3, complicating cross-border movement for the 15,000 daily commuters.
The third is the close of the legislative term, which has reduced the visible pace of government action even as Petro continues to push through executive orders. Petro himself has converted the recovery into closing-stretch political action.
Petro Approval Slide and the May 31 Race
The CNC poll places Pacto Histórico’s Iván Cepeda first in voting intentions, building on a recovery that started in November 2025. Cepeda’s lead is structurally connected to Petro’s own approval line — a president holding around 49 percent can still transfer support to a successor.
A leftist candidate cannot easily inherit support from a president whose approval bottoms in the mid-30s. At nearly 50 percent, Petro can. The Latin American political map shows Colombia as one of the few major economies where the incumbent left has remained electorally viable into a final year.
What the Petro Approval Slide Misses
The opposition has not consolidated around a single challenger to Cepeda. Sergio Fajardo, Paloma Valencia, and Abelardo de la Espriella divide the right and centrist field, leaving Cepeda’s lead structurally protected.
Petro himself has converted the recovery into closing-stretch political action through executive orders and ministerial communications, signalling the kind of executive-branch mobilisation rarely seen at this stage of a Colombian campaign.
What Comes After the Petro Approval Slide
A second-round runoff scheduled for June 21 remains likely if no candidate clears 50 percent on May 31. The final stretch will test whether Petro’s executive orchestration can hold his approval line above 45 percent through to August.
For investors tracking Colombian sovereign risk, the Petro number matters less than the Cepeda lead. A continuity government in Colombia would extend the policy mix that has held the COLCAP-peso pair in a stable band through 2026.
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