Colombia Stock Market Rebounds 2.34% as Ecopetrol Earnings Beat Triggers Bounce
The MSCI COLCAP rose 2.34% to 2,121.95 on Thursday May 14, 2026 — the biggest gain since April. The index tested the trendline
The MSCI COLCAP rose 2.34% to 2,121.95 on Thursday May 14, 2026 — the biggest gain since April. The index tested the trendline at 2,045 intraday before reversing on Ecopetrol Q1 (COP 2.9T net income, 47% EBITDA margin, full-year guidance maintained). RSI recovered from Wednesday’s 27.82 to 35.47; MACD crossed bullish for the first time in three weeks.
The Big Three
The MSCI COLCAP rose 2.34% (+48.49 points) to 2,121.95 — the strongest session since April. Intraday range 2,073.36–2,144.07; the index tested the trendline at 2,045 intraday then reversed sharply. The bounce came on the deepest oversold setup of 2026 (Wednesday’s RSI 27.82) plus the Ecopetrol Q1 catalyst.
Ecopetrol delivered the fundamental catalyst. Q1: revenue COP 28.6T, EBITDA COP 13.5T, net income COP 2.9T. EBITDA margin 47% — comparable to strongest historical quarters per CFO Barco Muñoz. Full-year guidance maintained at 730–740K boe/day.
The technical pivot is real. MACD histogram improved from −13.70 to −10.02, line at −33.96 crossed above signal at −43.97 — first bullish crossover since late April. RSI fast 35.47, slow 38.57, both recovering from oversold. The setup has shifted from confirmed downtrend to contested. 16 days to May 31.
03 Key Movers
Winners
Ecopetrol (BVC:ECO) led after Q1 confirmed COP 28.6T revenue, COP 13.5T EBITDA, 47% margin. The bank complex recovered: Davivienda preferred (PFDavvnda) and Grupo Cibest preferred (PFCibest) bid on relief that Tuesday’s curve-steepening trade had paused. Grupo Sura and Grupo Argos rebounded from oversold. Breadth was the strongest of the four-day reversal.
Losers
The list was narrow. Constructora El Cóndor (ELCONDOR) extended its multi-week decline. Some mid-cap retail names gave back gains on profit-taking. Brent slipped toward US$108, capping the Ecopetrol upside but not preventing the bounce. Polling-sensitive names remain tied to May 31.
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§04 · Market Commentary
Thursday was the reversal Wednesday’s RSI 27.82 set up. The COLCAP opened above Wednesday’s close, drifted to 2,073 — testing the trendline at 2,045 intraday — then reversed sharply on the Ecopetrol catalyst. The +2.34% gain was the largest since April. The mechanical setup had pointed to a bounce; Ecopetrol delivered the fundamental cover.
The earnings substance matters beyond the day. The 47% EBITDA margin and maintained guidance signal the operational story is intact despite Petro-era policy noise. Net income falling COP 0.2T vs Q1 2025 reflects tax and currency, not core deterioration. With Brent above US$108 and the budget at US$59.20, every dollar above the floor flows to the bottom line. Polymarket runoff probabilities are unchanged — but the COLCAP can now bounce while pricing the risk.
05 Technical Analysis
The COLCAP closed at 2,121.95 — above the 2,085 zone and approaching the lower cloud edge at 2,130. The candle is a long green bar with the open near the low, close near the high — a textbook bullish reversal. MACD histogram −10.02, line −33.96 crossing above signal at −43.97 — first bullish crossover since late April. RSI fast 35.47, slow 38.57, both recovering. The 200-DMA at 2,134 is the first meaningful resistance.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Verdict
Thursday converted oversold pressure into a real bullish reversal — the MACD crossover and the bounce off the multi-year trendline are real signals, not just mean reversion. But the May 31 election binary is unchanged, country risk remains near 500 bps, and the Petro-era fiscal overhang carries to the next administration. A daily close above 2,134 (200-DMA) converts the bounce into structure. Below 2,085, the 2,045 trendline returns as the test.
Related: Wednesday’s COLCAP at 2,073 · Brazil bounce · LatAm cross-asset.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Emerging-market equity markets carry elevated political and currency risk. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Published by The Rio Times.
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