COLCAP Edges Up 0.55% as Ecopetrol Surges 7.8% on Hormuz Oil Premium

01 Market Snapshot

02 Key Movers

03 Market Commentary

Wednesday’s session on the BVC delivered a paradox: the COLCAP closed marginally higher at 2,182.36 — up just 0.55% or 11.83 points — but the headline number masked a violently bifurcated market underneath. Ecopetrol’s 7.8% surge, powered by Brent crude holding above $82 on the fifth day of the Strait of Hormuz closure, single-handedly dragged the index into positive territory. Strip out the oil giant and the picture inverts: ISA plunged 7.27%, Grupo Sura preferred dropped 6.52%, and Grupo Aval preferred shed 5.90%. Losers outnumbered winners one-to-zero according to Investing.com’s breadth measure — an unusual reading that underscores how narrow the session’s strength was.

The diplomatic catalyst that lit up Wall Street and São Paulo had a more muted effect in Bogotá. Iran’s reported CIA outreach, disclosed by the New York Times, compressed the geopolitical risk premium globally — the VIX fell from 25.95 to 23.57 and the S&P 500 added 0.78%. The peso responded: the TRM dropped 1.22% to COP 3,751.41, its sharpest single-day appreciation in weeks, after the dollar had pierced COP 3,800 on Monday. The spot interbank close at COP 3,767.99 remained above the TRM, reflecting residual hedging demand ahead of Friday’s U.S. payroll and Saturday’s elections.

But the equity market’s internal rotation tells a different story from the FX market’s relief. Financial holdings — the sector that now comprises roughly 58% of the COLCAP’s weight — sold off heavily. Grupo Sura, Grupo Aval, and Grupo Bolívar all fell between 3.7% and 8.5%, extending a pattern of pre-election de-risking that began in late February when polls consolidated Iván Cepeda’s lead. The market is expressing a clear view: oil is a geopolitical trade with identifiable upside catalysts, while financial holdings carry political risk that Saturday’s results may amplify or compress but cannot yet resolve.

Ecopetrol’s session merits granular attention. The stock closed at COP 2,350 — up COP 170 or 7.8% from the prior close — with an intraday range of COP 2,180 to COP 2,395. La República confirmed the close. The rally reflects not just the Hormuz premium but also the company’s freshly released 2025 results: revenues of COP 119.6 trillion (down 10.2% year-on-year) and net income of COP 9 trillion (down 39.5%), which, while weaker, removed earnings uncertainty. The stock is now positioned as a direct play on two binary outcomes: the Hormuz resolution and the presidential election, given the state’s 88.5% stake and the next government’s influence over capital allocation.

04 Currency

The Colombian peso staged its strongest daily recovery since the Hormuz crisis began. The TRM for March 5 fell to COP 3,751.41 — down COP 46.23 or 1.22% from the prior session — after having breached COP 3,800 earlier in the week. The spot interbank market, as reported by Set-FX, saw USD 1.699 billion traded across 2,113 transactions, with an open of COP 3,750, a low of COP 3,749, and a high of COP 3,791. The weighted average spot close at COP 3,767.99 sat COP 16.58 above the TRM, a typical premium that reflects intraday hedging flows.

Bancolombia attributed the peso’s recovery to the partial easing of Hormuz tensions and the broader dollar pullback following the Iran diplomatic signal. The DXY nonetheless rose 0.68% to 99.01, suggesting the peso’s strength was driven more by compression of EM risk premiums than by dollar weakness per se. Year-to-date, the TRM is down just 0.15% from its January 1 level, a remarkably flat performance given the geopolitical shock. Year-on-year, the peso remains 9.48% stronger against the dollar — a structural tailwind from the 2025 depreciation of the greenback and sustained carry-trade flows into Colombian fixed income.

05 Technical Analysis

Daily (1D):

Wednesday’s candle printed a modest green body with limited wicks, closing at 2,182.36 on an open of 2,169.97. The session high of 2,186.09 stopped below the descending moving average cluster in the 2,257–2,267 zone, which now represents first meaningful resistance. The low of 2,157.17 tested but did not breach the 2,135 support area visible on the daily chart, suggesting buyers remain present at those levels.

The MACD histogram at −42.70 (MACD line: −12.16; signal: −30.54) remains deeply negative and is widening, not contracting — indicating that downside momentum has not yet exhausted itself. The bearish crossover that began in late February continues to accelerate. RSI at 46.30 sits below the 50 midline, confirming bearish momentum, though it remains well above oversold territory (30). The secondary RSI reading at 36.20 suggests the index is approaching levels where historically mean reversion has occurred, but no reversal signal has triggered. The 200-day SMA at approximately 1,956.72 remains a distant anchor, confirming the secular uptrend is structurally intact even as the tactical picture stays challenging.

06 Forward Look

Legislative Elections & Presidential Consultations — Saturday, March 8:

This is the week’s dominant domestic catalyst. Over 41 million Colombians are eligible to vote for 102 senators and 183 representatives, plus three presidential consultations. The Gran Consulta por Colombia (center-right) features nine candidates including Vicky Dávila and Juan Manuel Galán. The Frente por la Vida field is anchored by Iván Cepeda, who leads presidential polls at 31.7%. Results will reshape the political landscape ahead of the May 31 presidential first round. A strong showing by the center-right coalition would be read as market-positive; a consolidation of the left’s position could extend the financial sector selloff.

U.S. Payroll — Friday, March 6:

The February jobs report drops before the BVC opens for its final session ahead of elections. A strong number reinforces the Fed’s hold posture and could reverse part of the peso’s recovery. A weak reading reopens the early-cut narrative and would be constructive for EM carry.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz:

Tehran’s diplomatic signal needs concrete follow-through before markets can price in de-escalation with conviction. For Colombia specifically, elevated Brent is a double-edged sword: it supports Ecopetrol and government royalties but feeds into imported inflation that constrains BanRep’s ability to pivot dovish at the March 31 meeting. Any recurrence of military action would rapidly erase the peso’s Wednesday gains.

BanRep — March 31 Decision:

The central bank hiked 100 bps to 10.25% on January 30, responding to the 23.7% minimum-wage increase and unanchored inflation expectations (median analyst forecast: 6.4% for year-end 2026). Inflation expectations have been above the 3% target for six consecutive years. Oxford Economics projects rates could rise further to 10.5% or higher. The Hormuz-driven Brent premium adds another hawkish input. Markets will be looking for any signals from the board in the coming weeks about the pace of further tightening.

Verdict

Wednesday’s 0.55% headline gain is not what it appears. The COLCAP’s advance was almost entirely a function of Ecopetrol’s 7.8% surge — a geopolitical oil trade, not a vote of confidence in the broader Colombian equity market. Underneath, the financial sector that dominates 58% of the index’s weight sold off aggressively: ISA down 7.27%, Grupo Sura preferred down 6.52%, Grupo Aval preferred down 5.90%. Losers outnumbered winners. This is a market that is disaggregating into two distinct narratives: an energy trade driven by Hormuz, and a political risk discount being applied to everything else.

The peso told a more constructive story, recovering 1.22% to COP 3,751.41 as the Iran diplomatic signal compressed risk premiums globally. But the spot close at COP 3,767.99 — still above the TRM — reveals that the market has not fully de-risked the week’s remaining catalysts: Friday’s U.S. payroll and Saturday’s elections. The 46% of Colombian households reporting increased investment caution due to election uncertainty is not an abstract survey finding — it is showing up in the tape as a persistent bid for dollars ahead of the vote.

Technically, the COLCAP remains trapped between 2,135 support and the 2,257–2,267 resistance cluster. The MACD histogram at −42.70 is widening, not contracting. RSI at 46.30 is below the midline but not yet at levels that have historically triggered durable reversals. The 200-day SMA at 1,956.72 — 10% below current price — confirms the secular trend is unbroken, but the tactical setup requires either a resolution of the Hormuz crisis, a market-friendly election outcome, or both before the index can mount a sustained recovery above the moving-average resistance zone.

Bias: BEARISH — maintained. The index is technically below its descending MA cluster with a widening negative MACD histogram and sub-50 RSI. The Ecopetrol-driven headline gain masks broad-based selling in financials. A confirmed close above 2,267 turns bias Neutral; a break below 2,100 targets the 1,956 200-day SMA.

Read More from The Rio Times

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