March 3, 2026 • Bogotá Morning Briefing • Covering the March 2 Session
The Big Three
COLCAP collapses 3.37% to 2,148.11 — the index erased its gains from the past two weeks in a single session as the convergence of the U.S.–Iran war, Strait of Hormuz closure, and rising political uncertainty ahead of the March 8 consultas triggered broad-based selling. The close marks the lowest level since mid-December 2025.
Peso weakens to $3,768.73 as oil shock lifts the dollar — the TRM for March 3 rose to its highest level since early January. The DXY surged to 98.5 as safe-haven flows accelerated following Operation Epic Fury and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude spiked 9% to $79.45, its highest since January 2025.
Invamer poll cements Cepeda at 37.1%, markets price in left-wing continuity risk — the latest Invamer survey released Feb 26 showed Iván Cepeda nearly doubling his nearest rival Abelardo de la Espriella (18.9%). With the March 8 consultas interpartidistas days away, Bloomberg reported Colombian bonds and the peso fell sharply as markets positioned for a Petro-aligned successor.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| COLCAP Close | 2,148.11 | −74.81 (−3.37%) |
| COLCAP Range | 2,148.11 – 2,230.28 | — |
| COLCAP YTD | — | +3.9% (est.) |
| COLCAP ATH | 2,562.00 | −16.2% from ATH |
| USD/COP TRM (Mar 3) | $3,768.73 | — |
| USD/COP TRM (Mar 2) | $3,766.30 | — |
| USD/COP SPOT Close | $3,768.73 | +$2.43 vs TRM |
| Peso YTD vs USD | — | +0.31% (weakening) |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | +100 bps (Jan 30) |
| Brent Crude | $79.45 | +$6.65 (+9.1%) |
| WTI Crude | $72.74 | +$5.72 (+8.4%) |
| Gold | $5,408/oz | safe-haven bid |
| S&P 500 | 6,881.62 | +0.04% |
| DXY | 98.51 | +0.96% |
| VIX | 21.44 | +7.96% |
Equities
The COLCAP suffered its worst single-session loss since the February 26 crash (when it dropped 4.13%), closing at 2,148.11 — down 74.81 points or 3.37%. The index opened at 2,227.50, briefly touched 2,230.28, then sold off relentlessly through the session to close on its lows. It was the worst start to a month for the index since March 2020.
The damage compounded what was already a brutal February: the index lost 10.18% for the month, its worst monthly performance in over a year. The top losers in February were Grupo Éxito (−19.90%), Títulos Inmobiliarios (−18.78%), BAC Holding (−17.62%), PF Aval (−16.65%), and PF Cibest (−15.74%). Only Mineros (+5.74%) finished the month in positive territory.
Two overlapping catalysts drove the selloff: globally, the U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran (“Operation Epic Fury”) and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sparked a risk-off wave across emerging markets. Domestically, the Invamer poll showing Iván Cepeda at 37.1% — nearly double his nearest rival — intensified fears of policy continuity under a left-wing administration. Bloomberg reported Colombian bonds and the peso fell sharply on the Cepeda polling lead.
Currency
The Colombian peso weakened on Monday as the TRM for March 3 was set at $3,768.73, up from $3,766.30 on March 2. The SPOT market closed at $3,768.73, approximately $2.43 above the day’s TRM. The peso hit its highest level in over a month, surpassing the January 6 reading of $3,770.03.
Pressure on the peso came from three directions: the DXY surged to 98.5, a five-week high, as safe-haven dollar demand spiked following the Iran strikes. Brent crude’s 9% surge initially offered some support via Colombia’s oil-export linkage, but the geopolitical risk premium overwhelmed the commodity tailwind. Domestically, the Cepeda polling dominance added a political risk premium to Colombian assets.
Year-to-date, the peso has weakened 0.31% against the dollar (starting 2026 at ~$3,757). However, year-over-year the peso remains 8.84% stronger, reflecting the structural gains made through 2025.
Technical Analysis — COLCAP Daily
The daily chart tells a brutal story. The COLCAP gapped down from Friday’s close of 2,222.92 and sold off throughout the session to close on its absolute lows at 2,148.11 — a long red candle with virtually no lower wick, signaling relentless selling pressure with no meaningful dip-buying.
The RSI has plummeted to 31.54 on the slow stochastic, approaching oversold territory for the first time since the index’s rally began in late 2024. The fast RSI reads 49.92, indicating momentum has shifted firmly bearish. The MACD histogram at −30.20 with the signal line at −17.82 and MACD line at 12.38 shows a widening bearish divergence — the histogram has been negative and expanding for the past several sessions.
The 200-day SMA sits at approximately 1,949, still providing a long-term structural floor well below current levels. The index has now broken below the February lows and is testing levels not seen since mid-December. The Ichimoku cloud (visible on the chart) shows price has broken below the cloud base, a bearish signal for medium-term trend.
Key Levels — COLCAP
| Level | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 2,355.06 | Mid-Feb peak |
| Resistance 2 | 2,310.32 | Ichimoku cloud base |
| Resistance 1 | 2,217.36 | Prior session close |
| Close | 2,148.11 | Session low |
| Support 1 | 2,050.00 | Monthly support (Valora) |
| Support 2 | 1,948.98 | 200-day SMA |
Global Context
The dominant macro story is the U.S.–Iran war. Over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. assets across the Gulf region and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Tanker traffic through the strait — which handles roughly 20% of global petroleum and LNG — has effectively halted.
Oil prices surged dramatically: Brent hit an intraday high of $82.37, its highest since January 2025, before settling at $79.45 (+9%). WTI closed at $72.74 (+8.4%). Analysts are warning of further upside: Citi expects Brent between $80–$90 this week, while JPMorgan says a 3–4 week squeeze on Hormuz traffic could push Brent above $100. UBS sees a material disruption scenario sending prices above $120.
Wall Street staged a remarkable comeback on Monday. The S&P 500, which had fallen as much as 1.2% intraday, closed essentially flat at 6,881.62 (+0.04%). The Nasdaq recovered from a 1.6% deficit to close up 0.36% at 22,748.86. The Dow fell 73 points (−0.15%) to 48,904.78. Investors rotated into cash-rich tech leaders like Nvidia (+2.9%) and Microsoft (+1.5%), while defense stocks surged: Northrop Grumman +6%, Palantir +5.8%.
However, the overnight picture turned darker: S&P 500 futures were down 0.9% and Nasdaq futures off 1.2% early Tuesday as geopolitical tensions escalated further, with reports of fresh Israeli strikes and Saudi Arabia reporting drone attacks. Asian markets sold off sharply — Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.25%.
Gold surged to $5,408/oz as safe-haven demand accelerated. The VIX jumped 7.96% to 21.44. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 52.4 for February, still in expansion territory, but the prices component surged to 70.5, reigniting inflation concerns — particularly relevant as higher oil prices threaten to feed through into consumer prices.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday’s session in Bogotá will open into a wall of risk. Overnight U.S. futures are pointing to another 0.9–1.2% decline, Asian markets have sold off heavily, and oil prices remain elevated. The COLCAP will likely face immediate pressure to test the 2,100 level.
Key events this week: the March 8 consultas interpartidistas in Colombia represent the most important near-term domestic catalyst. The results will determine the final presidential candidate lineup for the May 31 first-round vote. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any signal that the center-right field remains fragmented while the left consolidates behind Cepeda.
Ecopetrol reports Q4 2025 earnings on March 4. While the oil price surge should be positive for Colombia’s fiscal outlook and Ecopetrol’s revenue picture, political uncertainty around the company’s governance under a potential Cepeda government may limit any positive reaction.
On the global calendar: U.S. ADP employment data, Services PMI, and the Fed’s Beige Book are all due this week, alongside ongoing developments in the Iran conflict. Any escalation involving Saudi oil infrastructure or a prolonged Hormuz closure would represent a paradigm shift for global energy markets — and by extension, for oil-dependent economies like Colombia.
The Verdict
War premium meets election premium — a toxic cocktail for Colombian assets.
The COLCAP’s 3.37% plunge reflects the rare convergence of a global geopolitical shock (Iran/Hormuz) and an idiosyncratic domestic risk (Cepeda’s polling dominance). February’s 10.18% decline was already the worst month in over a year; March has opened with another 3.4% loss on day one. Technically, the RSI is approaching oversold territory near 31, which historically has marked short-term bottoms — but that signal is only useful if the fundamental drivers stabilize. With Brent above $79, the DXY at 98.5, and Colombian elections entering their most volatile phase, the risk remains firmly to the downside in the near term. Ecopetrol’s earnings on March 4 offer a potential catalyst, but even strong numbers may not be enough to overcome the double headwind of war and political uncertainty.
Data sources: BVC, TradingView, Superfinanciera, CNBC, Investing.com, CBS News, Valora Analitik, DolarHoy.co, Trading Economics. Chart: TradingView (riotimesonline). Report by The Rio Times. This is not financial advice.