A Temporary Dip, Not a Trend
China’s soybean imports fell 7.8% in the combined January–February period to 12.55 million metric tons, customs data showed Monday. China merges the two months to smooth distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday, which shifts between January and February each year. The figure, while lower than last year, still came in roughly one million tons above analyst expectations of 11.1 million, suggesting the world’s largest soybean buyer maintained stronger demand than the headline decline implies.
Three factors converged to depress arrivals. Most U.S. shipments purchased under the late-2025 trade deal did not reach Chinese ports until the final days of February, limiting their impact on the two-month count. Brazil’s harvest, meanwhile, ran behind schedule: consultancy AgRural reported that 51% of the 2025/26 soybean crop had been harvested by last Thursday, compared with 61% at the same point a year earlier. And extended customs clearance procedures at Chinese ports further slowed the intake of cargoes that had already arrived.
March Arrivals Set to Surge
Analysts expect the shortfall to be erased quickly. Rosa Wang of Shanghai-based consultancy JCI estimated March arrivals at 6.4 million tons — nearly double the 3.5 million recorded in March 2025. The delayed U.S. cargoes and the acceleration of Brazil’s record harvest, forecast by Conab at 177 million tons for the current crop year, will both hit Chinese ports in the coming weeks. Liu Jinlu of Guoyuan Futures said that with South American supplies abundant, Chinese imports should improve markedly through the second quarter.
The seasonal pattern is familiar. China typically buys U.S. soybeans from the Northern Hemisphere autumn harvest through February, then switches almost exclusively to Brazilian supply once the Southern Hemisphere crop comes on stream. This year, the transition was disrupted by trade-war dynamics: retaliatory tariffs delayed Chinese purchases of U.S. beans until late October, when leaders from both countries met to ease tensions. China has since imported approximately 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans — a goodwill signal ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi summit in the coming weeks.
Brazil’s Structural Dominance
The broader context matters more than the two-month dip. Brazil exported 108 million tons of soybeans in calendar year 2025, with 85.4 million tons — roughly 79% — going to China. The country now supplies about 74% of China’s total soybean imports, a share that has risen steadily since the first U.S.-China trade war in 2018. Chinese state-owned conglomerate COFCO has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in port infrastructure at Santos and other Brazilian terminals, reinforcing logistics chains that make Brazilian beans consistently cheaper for Chinese buyers even without tariff differentials.
For U.S. farmers, the stakes remain high. Trump said last month that China was considering an additional purchase of 8 million tons, though traders were skeptical given elevated prices. USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to China will fall to $9 billion in 2026 — the lowest since the 2018 trade war — unless the upcoming summit produces concrete commitments. The American Soybean Association has warned that even with government assistance, soybean farmers face losses of $75 per acre this season. Meanwhile, Brazil’s harvest delay is a temporary inconvenience for Chinese buyers, not a structural shift. Once the record crop reaches export terminals, the seasonal switch will reassert itself and Brazilian soybeans will dominate Chinese imports through at least September.