Chile Posts Record January Trade on Copper Boom and Cherry Exports, but Tariff Clouds Loom

Chile kicked off 2026 with the strongest January trade performance in its history, crossing the $18 billion mark for the first time in the opening month of a year. Total trade exchange reached $18.04 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year, extending a remarkable streak of 17 consecutive months of growth, according to data released Wednesday by the Undersecretariat of International Economic Relations. Non-traditional exports also set a record, climbing 9.8% to $5.62 billion.

Exports alone accounted for $10.68 billion, an 8.5% jump driven by record performances across both traditional and non-traditional sectors. Mining led the way with $5.56 billion in shipments — a 12.1% increase — fueled by copper cathodes and concentrates that returned $4.55 billion. Gold, lithium carbonate, iron, molybdenum, and silver all posted gains exceeding $35 million each. Mining alone represented 52% of Chile‘s total exports.

The fruit sector contributed $1.77 billion, or 17% of all shipments, led by fresh cherries headed overwhelmingly to China. Over 90% of Chile’s cherry exports now go to a single market, where faster “Cherry Express” shipping routes and a zero-tariff trade agreement have transformed what was once a seasonal luxury into an everyday consumer product. The industry projects roughly 550,000 tons of cherries shipped this season, supporting around 200,000 jobs domestically. The food industry added another $1.32 billion, powered by salmon, frozen mackerel, and deep-sea cod.

The numbers are a vindication of Chile’s open-economy model, but the outlook is not without risk. Copper prices have surged past $13,000 per ton, partly driven by traders stockpiling metal in the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs. A Commerce Department review due by mid-2026 will determine whether phased tariffs of 15% to 30% on refined copper imports go ahead — a decision that could redirect Chilean shipments further toward China and compress margins for producers.

That growing reliance on Beijing is a strategic vulnerability Chile’s policymakers can no longer ignore. With copper and cherries both anchored to Chinese demand, any slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy — or escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions — would hit Santiago harder than almost any other capital in Latin America. For now, the record numbers tell a story of strength. The question is how long the tailwind holds.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Chile Joins Latin America’s Aid Push for Cuba as U.S. Oil Bl This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chile affairs and Latin American financial news.