TODAY’S FOCUS
The Big Picture
February’s final session arrives with the Ibovespa defending 191,000 after Thursday’s Nvidia-led Nasdaq selloff (−1.18%) failed to dent Brazilian equities meaningfully. The index held at 191,247 (−0.13%), consolidating after touching a new intraday ATH of 192,623 on Wednesday.
Today’s session will determine whether the Ibovespa closes the month above 191K — which would seal a seventh consecutive monthly gain, the longest streak since the 16-month run ending July 1997. Month-end rebalancing flows dominate: pension funds may trim equity overweight after a ~5.4% February gain, while foreign inflows (R$33B+ YTD by mid-Feb) may counterbalance.
Trump’s State of the Union offered no new tariff escalation beyond Section 122’s 15% framework, but USTR Greer signaled 35-50% tariffs on China via alternative authorities, and the EU postponed its trade deal ratification vote. Today’s macro slate: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (8:30 ET), Personal Income & Spending, and Michigan Sentiment final.
Three Things That Matter
| After Hours | Nvidia sold off 5.5% despite record Q4 ($68.1B revenue, $78B Q1 guide). Market punished AI capex sustainability concerns — Nasdaq fell 1.18%. Brazil’s commodity-heavy index is insulated from AI valuation risk, but global risk appetite took a hit |
| 08:00 | Brazil IGP-M (Feb) — Key inflation gauge for rent adjustments. Prior: +0.27%. A deceleration would reinforce the cooling inflation narrative ahead of Copom Mar 17-18 |
| After Close | B3 (B3SA3) beat Q4 earnings — R$1.4B net income vs R$1.2B consensus. The exchange’s bottom line directly reflects record Ibovespa volumes. Watch price action at the open for read on domestic sentiment |
Where We Left Off THURSDAY, FEB 26 — B3 CLOSE
The Ibovespa edged down 0.13% to 191,247 on Thursday, oscillating between a session high of 192,624 (+0.59%) and a low of 190,419 (−0.56%) with R$27.4B in turnover. The consolidation followed Wednesday’s ATH close at 191,490. Vale ON gave back 0.84% after Wednesday’s 2.55% surge, while Petrobras was flat (PN +0.10%, ON −0.14%). Session leaders included Marcopolo (+5.56%), Hapvida (+4.78%), and Pão de Açúcar (+4.25%). Rede D’Or (−4.53%) led decliners. The Ibovespa has accumulated a 5.45% gain in February and +18.69% YTD.
In New York, the Nasdaq tumbled 1.18% to 22,878 as Nvidia fell 5.5% despite record Q4 earnings — the market punished AI capex return concerns. The S&P 500 slipped 0.54% to 6,909, while the Dow held flat (+0.03%) at 49,499, buoyed by Salesforce (+4.0%) after a strong earnings beat. Gold miners surged to a record close (NYSE Arca Gold Bugs +2.9%) even as gold itself pulled back. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.1 bps to 4.02% — its lowest since November 2025 — as safe-haven demand intensified. Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 212K from 208K. The DXY held at 97.71.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, FEB 26 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,247 | −0.13% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1392 | +0.28% |
| S&P 500 | 6,909 | −0.54% |
| Nasdaq | 22,878 | −1.18% |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.02% | −3.1 bps |
| Gold (Spot) | $5,226 | +0.97% |
| Brent Crude | $71.10 | +0.58% |
| Iron Ore (62%) | $98.40 | −0.27% |
| DXY | 97.71 | −0.03% |
What to Watch FRIDAY CATALYSTS
The market enters February’s final session with three dominant forces. First, month-end rebalancing: the Ibovespa‘s ~5.4% February gain will trigger mechanical selling from pension funds trimming equity overweight, but foreign flows (R$33B+ YTD by mid-Feb, which JPMorgan called unprecedented for this time of year) may absorb the supply. Volume will be the tell — above R$30B signals conviction, below R$25B signals drift into the close.
Second, the Nvidia aftermath. Despite record Q4 earnings ($68.1B revenue, $78B Q1 guide), the stock fell 5.5% on Thursday as the market questioned AI capex return timelines. The Nasdaq dropped 1.18% — its worst session since the Anthropic Claude Code disruption on Feb 23. Brazil’s insulation is structural: the Ibovespa is bank- and commodity-heavy, not tech-heavy, and the sector rotation into EM equities is partly driven by exactly this AI valuation anxiety in developed markets.
Third, tariff evolution. Foreign Policy published analysis arguing Trump’s Section 122 tariffs are also illegal, as the statute requires a “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficit. Legal challenges are expected imminently. Any injunction would further reduce global tariff pressure. Meanwhile, USTR Greer signaled maintaining 35-50% tariffs on China via Section 301 investigations, and the EU postponed its trade deal vote for a second time, seeking “full clarity” from Washington.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The index enters Friday at 191,247 after Thursday’s tight consolidation range (190,419–192,624). Wednesday’s intraday ATH at 192,623 remains the near-term ceiling — the index probed above 192K twice this week and was rejected both times, showing sellers are active at altitude. The RSI sits at 69.9 — just below the 70 overbought threshold, cooling from Tuesday’s 72 peak. MACD histogram is slightly negative at −260, confirming that momentum is flattening rather than accelerating.
Resistance: 192,624 (Thu session high) → 194,000 (Safra technical target). Support: 190,419 (Thu session low) → 189,101 (short-term MA zone) → 186,411 (mid-term support). RSI: 69.9 on the daily — cooling but still elevated. Prior reversals triggered at 73-75. Volume at R$27.4B is below the 5-day average of R$30B+, suggesting conviction is thinning. A monthly close above 191,247 would seal February’s ~5.4% gain and set up March with structural momentum. A break below 190,000 would signal deeper correction toward the 20-day EMA near 189,000.
Copom Watch NEXT MEETING: MAR 17-18
The Selic sits at 15.00% with the March 17-18 Copom meeting now 18 days away. Market pricing continues to imply a hold, with the DI curve reflecting a terminal rate of 15.25-15.50% before cuts begin in H2 2026. The latest Focus survey showed 2026 IPCA expectations at 3.99% — the fifth consecutive weekly decline — providing incremental support for eventual easing. BCB Governor Galípolo’s comments acknowledging China‘s “disinflationary export” reinforce the dovish wing’s narrative, but core PCE in the U.S. at 3.0% YoY and the Fed on hold until at least July limit the BCB’s room to signal imminent cuts without risking BRL destabilization.
Thursday’s BCB credit data for January showed a divergent picture: vehicle financing for consumers accelerated +19.6% YoY to R$19.9B, while corporate lending contracted −6.9% YoY, highlighting the gap between consumer resilience and business caution under tight monetary conditions. The real at R$5.14 is the lowest since May 2024, providing imported disinflation relief — but the CDI at 14.90% and corporate lending rates at 18.8% signal that the tightening cycle is biting where it matters most. Today’s IGP-M release (08:00) will provide a fresh inflation gauge ahead of the March decision.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, FEB 27
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | Brazil IGP-M (Feb) — Key inflation gauge, rent adjustment index. Prior: +0.27% | HIGH |
| 08:00 | Brazil Government Budget Balance (Jan) | MEDIUM |
| 08:30 | U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Jan P) — Key manufacturing demand read | HIGH |
| 08:30 | U.S. Personal Income & Spending (Jan) — Consumer health check | HIGH |
| 10:00 | U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb, final) | MEDIUM |
| All Day | US-Iran Nuclear Talks continue (Geneva). Breakdown = oil spike, risk-off | HIGH |
| MAR 17–18 | Copom + FOMC Meetings — Both central banks decide same dates | HIGH |
Latin America Markets LATEST CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,247 | −0.13% | 69.9 | Bullish |
| IPC | 71,390 | +0.35% | 62.9 | Bullish |
| COLCAP | 2,284 | −4.13% | 53.3 | Bearish |
| IPSA | 11,050 | −0.75% | 50.3 | Neutral |
| MERVAL | 2,754,419 | −1.62% | 40.6 | Bearish |
Colombia’s COLCAP was the regional outlier, plunging 4.13% as fiscal concerns and policy uncertainty triggered heavy selling — the worst single-session drop in months. The MERVAL continued its extended slide (−1.62%), now down over 12% from its January peak with RSI at 40.6 approaching oversold territory. Mexico’s IPC was the lone gainer at +0.35%, maintaining its bullish posture near record highs with RSI at 62.9. Chile’s IPSA slipped 0.75% but sits in neutral territory with RSI at 50.3. The USD/BRL edged up to 5.1392 (+0.28%) after five consecutive sessions of BRL strength had pushed it to its lowest since May 2024 — the move reflects normal consolidation, not a trend reversal.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Gold climbed 0.97% to $5,226/oz as tariff uncertainty and the 10Y yield decline to 4.02% continued to fuel safe-haven demand. Mining stocks on the NYSE surged 2.9% to a record close (Gold Bugs Index), even as gold itself consolidated below its ATH of $5,589. Silver rallied 2.07% to $90.08/oz, outperforming gold with RSI at 55.6 as industrial demand dynamics remained favorable. Brent held above $71/bbl (+0.58%), consolidating its technical breakout above the $70 psychological level. US-Iran nuclear talks continue in Geneva today — maintaining a geopolitical risk premium. However, the IEA’s oversupply forecast of 2.3-3.8M bpd for 2026 caps upside. Iron ore dipped to $98.40/t as Chinese production cuts ahead of the March 5 parliamentary meeting reduce near-term demand, while Simandou shipments add to supply pressure. DXY held at 97.71, down ~8% over the past 12 months — structural dollar weakness continues to support EM FX. Bitcoin ticked up 0.34% to $67,718 with RSI at a depressed 42.2, showing minimal correlation to equity momentum.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Section 122 tariffs structurally favorable — At 15%, they are far below the struck-down 50% IEEPA rate, with broad exemptions for key Brazilian exports (beef, orange juice, oil, aircraft). Legal challenges to Section 122 could reduce tariffs further — Foreign Policy analysis argues the statute’s requirements are not met.
B3 earnings beat validates volume thesis — R$1.4B net income vs R$1.2B consensus. Record Ibovespa turnover flows directly to the exchange’s bottom line. Real at R$5.14 (strongest since May 2024) and R$33B+ YTD foreign inflows provide dual support. 10Y at 4.02% signals global bond rally — Lowest since Nov 2025. Falling U.S. yields narrow the rate differential headwind and support EM carry trades. Focus survey IPCA at 3.99% — fifth consecutive weekly decline. |
Month-end rebalancing after +5.4% February — Pension funds may mechanically trim equity overweight. RSI at 69.9 still elevated. Volume declining (R$27.4B vs R$33B earlier). Seven consecutive monthly gains is historically rare — the last occurrence ended July 1997.
Nvidia selloff spreads AI capex doubt — Stock fell 5.5% despite record earnings. If global tech sentiment sours further, it could dampen risk appetite broadly. Greer’s 35-50% China tariff comments via alternative authorities could reignite trade tensions. Iran talks are the wild card — Two carrier strike groups deployed. Trump at SOTU: “I will never allow them to have a nuclear weapon.” Breakdown = oil spike toward $80+, risk-off cascade. Iron ore below $100 pressures Vale. Election cycle entering radar — AtlasIntel poll showed tight race. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The setup is constructive but demands discipline on month-end. The structural narrative remains intact: tariff relief from the Supreme Court decision (15% Section 122 vs struck-down 50% IEEPA), persistent foreign inflows (R$33B+ YTD), a strengthening real at 5.14, and softening inflation expectations (IPCA at 3.99%, fifth weekly decline). The Ibovespa’s commodity-heavy composition insulates it from the AI valuation anxiety that hammered the Nasdaq. B3’s earnings beat after the close should provide a positive impulse at the open. But the seventh consecutive monthly gain puts positioning at extremes — RSI at 69.9, declining volume, and the failed 192K breakout suggest the market needs fresh catalysts to push higher rather than consolidate. The 190,419 level (Thursday’s low) is the first line of defense; a break below opens the door to the 20-day EMA near 189,000. Today’s IGP-M at 08:00 sets the local tone; Durable Goods and Personal Income at 08:30 ET set the global tone. If U.S. data surprises soft, expect further Treasury rally and BRL support. If Iran talks show progress, oil pulls back and eases one source of global risk. Bias: cautiously bullish with tight stops at 190,000.