Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Thursday, May 14, 2026
PPI 6% YoY Blowout · Core PPI +1.0% · S&P 7,444 ATH · Ibovespa 177,098 (−1.80%) · BRL Back Above R$5.00 · 30Y Above 5% · Warsh Confirmed · Trump in Beijing · Retail Sales Today · War Day 75
Key Facts
— Producer prices surged 6.0% year-over-year in April — a 1.4% monthly gain that tripled the 0.5% consensus and marked the largest wholesale inflation print since 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core PPI rose 1.0% MoM versus 0.3% expected, per BLS data. The S&P 500 paradoxically rallied 0.58% to a record 7,444.25 and the Nasdaq gained 1.20% to 26,402.34, per TheStreet — driven by Trump’s Beijing delegation that included Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Tesla’s Elon Musk, and Apple’s Tim Cook. But the bond market revolted: the 30-year yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007, and the 10-year hit 4.473%, its 2026 high, according to TheStreet and Yahoo Finance.
PPI at 6% and the 30Y Above 5% Signal a Structural Inflation Shift
The April PPI at 6.0% YoY — following Tuesday’s CPI at 3.8% — confirmed a two-day inflation shock that changes the policy landscape, per BLS data. Core PPI at 1.0% MoM (triple the 0.3% consensus) indicates producer-level costs are accelerating faster than consumer prices, meaning the CPI pass-through pipeline is still filling. The 30-year yield’s breach of 5% for the first time since 2007 and the 10-year at 4.473% (2026 high) are the bond market’s verdict, per TheStreet. Warsh inherits a Fed where CME FedWatch prices a 98% hold at the next meeting but markets are increasingly pricing in a roughly 30% chance of hikes by year-end. For the Copom, the US rate picture has shifted decisively hawkish: if the Fed moves toward hikes, the 14.50% Selic carry differential compresses, and the BRL’s structural floor weakens — as Wednesday’s R$5.00 breach demonstrated.
The BRL Broke R$5.00 and the Ibovespa Crashed to 177K
The Ibovespa: O:180,341.56, H:180,512.77, L:176,787.09, C:177,098.29 (−1.80%, −3,244.04), per B3 data. Open = High — the most bearish session structure, repeated from Tuesday. The intraday low at 176,787 marks the deepest point since mid-March. MACD: −682.35/−1,535.81/−2,218.16 per TradingView — the histogram at −2,218 is the deepest of the entire correction cycle, confirming accelerating bearish momentum. RSI at 42.71, signal at 30.80 — the signal line has collapsed to 30.80, the lowest since the war’s opening week. The correction is now 10.8% from the ATH and shows no signs of stabilizing.
The USD/BRL at R$5.0111 broke the structural carry floor that had held since April 15 — five consecutive weeks below R$5.00 through missiles, ceasefire collapse, the worst Ibovespa day of the war, and Focus at 5.02%. The break above R$5.00 is technically significant: RSI at 52.70 (up from 35-36 range) shows the dollar is no longer oversold. The MACD histogram turned positive at +0.0131. If R$5.00 becomes resistance rather than support, the BRL’s structural bull thesis faces its first serious test of 2026.
Resistance: 177,098 (close) → 178,604 → 180,342 → 182,731 → 187,197 (Kijun).
Support: 176,787 (Wed low) → 176,902 (chart level) → 162,730 (200-day SMA).
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.02%
185,147.15
-0.02%
65,163.64
-0.42%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,049,121
-0.29%
2,544.56
+0.40%
59,978.22
-0.31%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,147.15 | -0.02% | +21.85% | 185,188.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Market Snapshot AS OF WED, MAY 13 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 177,098.29 | −1.80% (10.8% from ATH · B3) |
| USD/BRL | R$5.0111 | BACK ABOVE R$5.00 (ICE) |
| S&P 500 | 7,444.25 | +0.58% ATH (TheStreet) |
| Nasdaq | 26,402.34 | +1.20% ATH (TheStreet) |
| US PPI YoY | 6.0% | BLOWOUT · biggest since 2022 (BLS) |
| US 30Y Yield | >5.00% | FIRST TIME SINCE 2007 (Yahoo) |
| Brent / WTI | ~$102 / $97.30 | WTI −1.1% (BabyPips) |
| Bitcoin | $79,829 | +0.69% (TradingView) |
Copom Watch SELIC 14.50% · NEXT: JUNE 17-18
The June 17-18 cut is in jeopardy. The BRL’s break above R$5.00 removes one of the Copom’s key assumptions: the reference scenario used R$5.00/USD and was calibrated for a below-R$5.00 environment. Focus IPCA at 5.02% (9th rise), IPCA April at 0.70% (in-line but with 4.41% YoY), the US CPI/PPI shock driving 30Y yields above 5%, and now the carry floor cracking — the cumulative weight argues for a June pause rather than a third consecutive 25bp cut. Genial’s 13.25% terminal estimate faces increasing headwinds. The next Focus survey (May 18) will be critical.
Economic Calendar THURSDAY, MAY 14
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 05:15 ET | ECB Lagarde speaks. Eurozone Core CPI Apr (cons: 2.8%). Spanish CPI. China M2/Credit | HIGH |
| 08:30 ET | US Retail Sales Apr (cons: +0.5% MoM vs prev +1.7%). Core Retail (cons: +0.7%). US Initial Claims (cons: 205K). Import/Export Prices (Import cons: +1.0%). Continuing Claims | CRITICAL |
| 10:00–17:45 ET | Business Inventories (10:00). Fed Schmid (10:15). Natural Gas Storage (10:30). BoE Pill (11:15). Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Argentina CPI (15:00, cons: 2.5%). FOMC Williams speaks (17:45). Fed Barr speaks (19:00). Peru rate decision (19:00, cons: hold 4.25%) | MEDIUM-HIGH |
Latin America Markets WEDNESDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Chg | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 177,098 | −1.80% | 42.71 |
| IPC Mexico | 70,187 | +0.22% | 57.90 |
| MERVAL | 2,738,354 | −1.96% | 44.87 |
| IPSA Chile | 10,397 | −2.29% | 47.06 |
| COLCAP | 2,073 | −0.73% | 35.92 |
| BTC/USD | $79,829 | +0.69% | 62.77 |
Wednesday was the broadest LatAm selloff since the ceasefire collapse. Chile’s IPSA led with a 2.29% crash — the copper/lithium play turning into an inflation-sensitivity drag. Argentina’s MERVAL fell 1.96%. Brazil’s −1.80% was the second-largest decline. Only Mexico’s IPC eked out a +0.22% gain as Banxico’s recent 25bp cut continues to support the net oil importer. COLCAP at RSI 35.92 is approaching oversold territory for the first time since March.
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
Key Facts
— Two structural pillars cracked on Wednesday. The BRL broke above R$5.00 for the first time in five weeks, ending the narrative that the carry trade was invulnerable. The Ibovespa fell through 180K, 179K, 178K to close at 177,098 — a 10.8% correction from the ATH that is now the deepest of the war. Meanwhile the S&P hit a fresh record at 7,444 driven by the Trump-Beijing tech delegation, and the PPI at 6% sent the 30Y above 5% for the first time since 2007. The divergence between US tech (ATH) and Brazil equities (−10.8%) is now at its widest point of 2026.
—Bias: Bearish. The structural thesis is under strain. The Ibovespa’s RSI signal at 30.80 is at war-era lows but no reversal signal is forming. The MACD histogram at −2,218 is the deepest of the cycle. The BRL above R$5.00 removes a key support pillar. Thursday’s US Retail Sales at 08:30 ET determines whether the US consumer is absorbing the inflation shock (bullish for risk) or cracking (bearish for growth). ECB Lagarde’s comments on Eurozone inflation, FOMC Williams/Barr on the Warsh handover, and the Cerebras IPO are secondary. Watch Retail Sales — a miss (<+0.2%) would be the first concrete demand destruction signal and could paradoxically trigger a relief rally as rate-cut expectations revive.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the BRL break back above R$5.00?
The dollar rose to R$5.0111 on May 13, the first close above R$5.00 since mid-April, per ICE data. The break was driven by the US PPI blowout at 6.0% YoY, the 30-year yield crossing 5%, and the resulting compression in the Selic-to-Fed carry differential. The cumulative effect of CPI at 3.8% (May 12) and PPI at 6.0% (May 13) shifted the US rate outlook hawkish, weakening the structural case for BRL carry inflows.
What did the April PPI show?
US PPI rose 1.4% MoM and 6.0% YoY in April — the largest wholesale inflation print since 2022 and roughly triple the 0.5% MoM consensus, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core PPI rose 1.0% MoM versus 0.3% expected. Energy prices rose 3.8% monthly and 18% annually. The 30-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007 in response.
Is Kevin Warsh now the Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday, May 13, per BabyPips’ market recap. He inherits the Fed with headline CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 6.0%, core CPI at 2.8%, the 30-year yield above 5%, and markets pricing a 30% probability of rate hikes by December. Jerome Powell will remain as a Fed governor.
How deep is the Ibovespa’s correction now?
The Ibovespa closed at 177,098.29 on May 13 — 21,560 points or 10.8% below the 198,658 ATH set on April 14, per B3 data. The index has fallen six consecutive sessions and set new correction lows in five of them. The MACD histogram at −2,218 is the deepest of the entire correction cycle. RSI signal at 30.80 is at war-era lows. The next major support is 176,902 from chart levels, then the 200-day SMA at 162,730.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error