The Morning After the Miracle Rally
Today’s Brazil’s Financial Morning Call follows the most dramatic single-session reversal of the war. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Monday delivered a 5,712-point Ibovespa surge — from 176,219 to 181,932 (+3.24%) — after Trump announced a 5-day pause on strikes against Iranian infrastructure, citing “very good and productive” talks. Brent cratered 11% to below $100 for the first time since March 11. The entire war premium built over the past week unwound in hours.
The question for Tuesday is whether the rally has legs or was a dead-cat bounce in a still-escalating war. Iran denied direct negotiations. US futures are down 0.6-0.7% overnight. The BCB releases Copom minutes at 07:00 BRT — the full analytical framework behind the March 18 cut — and global PMI day will reveal the first hard data on how the war is impacting manufacturing and services.
Three Things That Matter
| Monday | Ibovespa +3.24% to 181,932 — best session since early Feb. MBRF +14.3% (Hormuz exposure), PRIO −2.8% (oil crash). USD/BRL −1.49% to R$5.24. S&P 500 +1.15% to 6,581. Dow +631 pts. Nasdaq +1.38%. Brent crashed 11% to $99.94 — first sub-$100 since Mar 11. Gold −3.8% to ~$4,425. 10Y fell to 4.33%. VIX dropped to 25.6. Trump announced 5-day strike pause on Iran. Focus Survey: IPCA 2026 at 4.10% (below 4.5% ceiling) |
| Overnight | Iran denied direct talks with US — called Trump’s claims “media manipulation.” US futures −0.6-0.7%. Asia mixed: Kospi +1.5%, Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +1.6%. Japan CPI fell to 1.3% (below BoJ 2% target). Apollo restricted private credit redemptions to 45%. Oil stabilized near $100 |
| Today | BCB Copom Minutes (07:00 BRT) — full framework behind the 25 bps cut. GLOBAL PMI DAY: France/Germany/EU/UK/US manufacturing & services. Mexico 1H CPI (08:00 ET). US Nonfarm Productivity (08:30 ET). US S&P Global PMIs (09:45 ET). Richmond Fed (10:00 ET). ECB Lane speaks (11:45 ET). 2Y Note Auction (13:00 ET). API crude inventories (16:30 ET). War Day 25 |
Where We Left Off MONDAY, MAR 23 — B3 CLOSE
The Ibovespa opened at 176,221 — unchanged from Friday’s battered close — then erupted higher after Trump’s Truth Social post at approximately 07:30 ET. The index surged to 182,973 intraday before settling at 181,931.93 (+3.24%). Volume was heavy at R$49.5B as short-covering collided with fresh institutional buying.
MBRF Global Foods led the index with +14.34%, driven by its heavy exposure to Middle Eastern trade routes now expected to normalize. Only PRIO (−2.84%) closed meaningfully lower — the oil crash that powered the broader rally was toxic for the pure-play E&P name. Petrobras was mixed, with the upside from Ibovespa sentiment offsetting the Brent collapse.
In New York, the relief rally was strong but less explosive. The S&P 500 gained 1.15% to 6,581, the Nasdaq rose 1.38%, and the Dow jumped 631 points. All three had been up more than 2% before paring gains into the close. The Russell 2000 surged 2.86%, the best performer, as small-caps priced a lower oil burden on the domestic economy.
Brent crude posted its largest single-day drop since March 10, crashing 10.92% to settle at $99.94 — its first close below $100 since March 11. WTI fell 10.28% to $88.13. Gold extended its selloff to ~$4,425 (−3.8%), pressured by falling yields and reduced safe-haven demand. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the 200-day SMA at ~174,809 held again — and this time the bounce was violent.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF MON, MAR 23 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 181,932 | +3.24% |
| USD/BRL | R$5.24 | −1.49% |
| S&P 500 | 6,581 | +1.15% |
| Nasdaq | 21,947 | +1.38% |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.33% | −6 bps |
| Gold (Spot) | ~$4,425 | −3.84% |
| Brent Crude | $99.94 | −10.92% |
| Iron Ore (62%) | ~$102 | ~flat |
| DXY | ~99.0 | −0.50% |
What to Watch TUESDAY CATALYSTS
The Copom minutes at 07:00 BRT are the morning’s domestic anchor. The market wants to see how the BCB framed the war’s impact on inflation, whether the open guidance was genuinely data-dependent or a placeholder for a preset path, and — critically — any language about oil price thresholds that would trigger a pause.
Global PMI day dominates the macro calendar. Flash PMIs for France (04:15 ET), Germany (04:30 ET), the Eurozone (05:00 ET), the UK (05:30 ET) and the US (09:45 ET) will show whether the war has begun to dent manufacturing output and services activity. Consensus expects deterioration across the board, with Eurozone manufacturing at 49.5 (contraction) and German manufacturing at 49.8.
Mexico’s 1st-half March CPI at 08:00 ET is the key LatAm data point. US Nonfarm Productivity (08:30 ET, cons: 2.4%) and Unit Labor Costs (cons: 3.4%) feed the stagflation debate. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10:00 ET, cons: −5) will confirm or deny the damage from high oil prices. ECB’s Lane speaks at 11:45 ET — his tone on the inflation outlook will be closely watched after markets priced two ECB hikes.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The Ibovespa closed Monday at 181,931.93 (+3.24%). Daily RSI surged to 50.70 (MA: 46.29) — crossing back above 50 for the first time since March 6 and exiting the bearish momentum regime. The MACD histogram remains negative at −70.09 (MACD: −708.74, signal: −778.83), but the histogram is narrowing sharply — a potential bullish crossover is developing.
Resistance: 182,104 (upper SMA cluster) → 183,188 (late Feb swing) → 183,831 (upper Bollinger) → 184,374 (1H resistance from intraday chart).
Support: 181,296 (1H support) → 180,405 (50-day SMA area) → 179,917 (intermediate SMA) → 177,185 (lower SMA cluster) → 173,890 (lower Bollinger).
The 1H chart shows the rally stalling near 182,360 before settling at 181,932. With US futures pointing down 0.6-0.7%, Tuesday’s open likely tests the 181,296 support level. A hold above 180,400 (50-day SMA area) keeps the recovery intact; a break below signals the rally was a one-day short-covering event.
Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: MAY 6-7
The BCB releases the minutes of the March 17-18 meeting at 07:00 BRT today. This is the most anticipated minutes release in years — the first cut in nearly two years, delivered during an active war, with oil at $100+ and the Fed signaling hikes.
Monday’s Focus Survey provided relief: IPCA 2026 expectations held at 4.10%, well below the 4.5% ceiling. This keeps the May cut alive in principle. But the minutes will reveal the BCB’s internal debate — how close was the vote to holding, what oil price scenarios were modeled, and what would trigger a pause.
With Brent back below $100 after Monday’s crash, the BCB’s room for a May cut has widened significantly. If the minutes show the board was comfortable cutting even with oil above $100, the market will price another 25 bps for May with high confidence. Hawkish surprise = any language suggesting the cut was a close call or that $100+ oil makes further easing conditional.
Economic Calendar TUESDAY, MAR 24
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 BRT | BCB Copom Meeting Minutes — Full framework behind the 25 bps cut to 14.75%. War impact analysis, oil scenarios, and forward guidance details. First cut in ~2 years | HIGH |
| 04:15-05:00 ET | Eurozone Flash PMIs — France Mfg (cons: 49.0), Germany Mfg (cons: 49.8), EU Mfg (cons: 49.5). First hard data on war impact. Contraction readings = stagflation signal | HIGH |
| 08:00 ET | Mexico 1st Half-Month CPI (Mar, prev: 0.25%). Mexico Economic Activity (Jan, prev: +3.30% YoY). Key LatAm inflation read | MEDIUM |
| 09:45 ET | US S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar) — Mfg (prev: 51.6), Services (prev: 51.7), Composite (prev: 51.9). US stagflation barometer. Richmond Fed Mfg (10:00 ET, cons: −5) | HIGH |
| 11:45 ET | ECB’s Lane Speaks — Chief Economist on inflation outlook after ECB held at 2.15%. Markets price 2 ECB hikes in 2026. Buba Nagel also speaks (11:00 ET) | MEDIUM |
| 16:30 ET | API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (prev: +6.6M barrels). Build/draw signals how US supply is responding to war-driven volatility | MEDIUM |
Latin America Markets MONDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 181,932 | +3.24% | 50.70 | Neutral |
| IPC (Mexico) | 64,371 | +0.37% | 32.31 | Oversold |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,231 | +1.40% | 47.45 | Neutral |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,228 | −0.49% | 36.52 | OS Watch |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,778,025 | +1.93% | 52.02 | Neutral |
The relief rally was broad but uneven. Brazil (+3.24%) and Argentina (+1.93%) surged on the de-escalation signal, while Chile’s IPSA (−0.49%) was the only red index — the oil crash hurt copper-linked sentiment. Mexico’s IPC managed a modest +0.37%, with the RSI at 32.31 still deeply oversold and suggesting the bounce has further to run.
The COLCAP chart is stale (showing Friday’s close at 2,231) — Monday’s session may not have been captured. The MERVAL’s RSI crossing above 52 marks the first time Argentina’s index has been in neutral territory since early March, reflecting the broader LatAm recovery.
As tracked in our Ibovespa market reports, the Ibovespa’s RSI crossing back above 50 is the first technical positive since the war selloff began. If it holds above 50 on Tuesday despite weaker US futures, the recovery becomes trend, not noise.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Brent crashed 10.92% to $99.94 — its largest single-day drop since March 10 and first close below $100 since March 11. WTI fell 10.28% to $88.13. The collapse was triggered by Trump’s 5-day strike pause, which the market interpreted as the beginning of a ceasefire process. Oil is stabilizing near $100 in Tuesday’s Asian session — a sustained hold below $100 would be the most bullish signal for EM equities since the war began.
Gold fell another 3.8% to ~$4,425, extending its now two-week decline from the $5,000+ highs. The 1H chart shows gold stabilizing around $4,414 in early Tuesday trade, with the RSI recovering from deeply oversold levels. Silver bounced from last week’s $62 lows to $69.20. The precious metals rout appears to be finding a floor as the acute liquidation pressure eases.
USD/BRL fell 1.49% to R$5.24 as the real recaptured much of Friday’s loss. The carry trade at 14.75% Selic is back in play with Brent below $100 and inflation expectations anchored. The DI curve eased, with rates pulling back across the curve. If the Copom minutes are dovish and oil stays below $100, R$5.15-5.20 is achievable this week.
DXY fell ~0.5% to ~99.0 as the de-escalation trade unwound safe-haven dollar demand. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6 bps to 4.33%, providing relief to rate-sensitive assets globally. Markets are still pricing zero Fed cuts for 2026 — but the tail risk of a hike has diminished with oil back below $100.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Brent below $100 changes the entire macro equation — At $100, the inflation pass-through is manageable. The BCB can continue cutting, the Fed hike tail risk fades, and EM carry trades re-engage. Every dollar lower on Brent is worth ~10 bps of easing expectations.
The Focus Survey held at 4.10% — the easing cycle survives — Despite the worst oil shock in years, IPCA expectations remained well below the 4.5% ceiling. The BCB’s credibility is intact and the May cut is on the table. The 200-day SMA at ~174,809 held for the third time — Friday’s low of 175,039 was the test. Monday’s 5,700-point rally from that level confirms massive institutional buying near the long-term trendline. This is the kind of support that builds bottoms. Trump’s 5-day pause is the off-ramp the market has been looking for — The “productive talks” language, combined with the postponement of escalation, creates space for a ceasefire process. Even a partial reopening of the Strait would crash oil to $80-85. |
Iran denied the talks — the 5-day window may lead nowhere — Tehran called Trump’s announcement “media manipulation.” If no agreement materializes by Friday, the ultimatum reactivates and markets face the same binary risk, now with weaker positioning.
US futures are already down 0.6-0.7% — the relief rally is fading before Tuesday opens — Monday’s rally pared from +2% highs to +1.15% by the close. The overnight fade suggests traders don’t fully believe the de-escalation narrative. PMI data may confirm the war is damaging real economic activity — If Eurozone manufacturing falls below 49 and US services weaken, the stagflation thesis gains hard data support. This is the scenario where central banks are trapped between inflation and recession. The gold crash and Apollo redemption cap signal liquidity stress — Gold down 15%+ from highs, silver in freefall, and a major private credit fund capping withdrawals at 45% of requests. These are signs of forced deleveraging that can cascade across asset classes if the war re-escalates. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
Tuesday is a prove-it day. Monday’s 3.24% surge was the market pricing a ceasefire. Iran’s denial of talks and weaker US futures suggest the proof hasn’t arrived yet. The Copom minutes and global PMIs will determine whether the recovery has substance or was a one-day squeeze.
The positioning shift from Monday is clear: oil-heavy names (PRIO, Petrobras) are now headwinds if Brent stays below $100, while rate-sensitive names (builders, retailers, banks) become the beneficiaries if the minutes confirm a dovish BCB. Rotate accordingly.
The key level to watch is whether the Ibovespa can hold 180,400 on a pullback. If it does, the RSI-above-50 recovery is confirmed and the index can consolidate 180,000-183,000 while waiting for clarity on the Iran ceasefire. A break below 180,000 reopens the risk of retesting 176,000.
Five days. That’s the window Trump gave. Markets will trade every headline from now through Friday. Stay nimble, keep stops tight, and let the Copom minutes set the domestic floor.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.