Brazil’s Crucial Farm Sector Set For Barely Any Growth In 2026

Key Points

• Brazil’s farm GDP is set to surge in 2025 but almost stall in 2026 as credit costs jump and defaults hit records.
• Big producers are shifting to self-financing, while smaller and indebted farms face shrinking access to bank loans.
• Weak insurance, high rates and more court restructurings risk turning a credit problem into a wider food and financial shock.

Brazil’s agribusiness outlook sounds like a paradox. The farm lobby CNA projects agribusiness GDP will grow 9.6% in 2025, then barely 1% in 2026. Fields are still expanding, but the financial fuel that kept the boom going is sputtering.

CNA expects the 2025/26 grain and oilseed harvest to reach 354.8 million tonnes, 0.8% more than the previous season. Corn prices are forecast to jump 15%, and soybeans should improve after a weaker year.

The gross value of farm and livestock output is seen at R$1.57 trillion in 2026, up 5.1% from 2025. Behind those big numbers, the cost of money has become a key risk.

Market-rate rural loans recorded a delinquency rate of 11.4% in October, the highest since 2011. Banks and finance companies are cutting ticket sizes, demanding more collateral and reacting to a rise in judicial recovery cases in the countryside.

As a result, the structure of farm finance is shifting. About 30% now comes from official, subsidised rural credit. Another 40% is supplied by private channels such as cooperatives, input dealers and capital markets, while roughly 30% is self-financing by producers.

Global Impact of Tight Farm Credit

A few years ago, that self-financing share was closer to 20%. For large, efficient operators, this trend can strengthen independence from state-directed credit and bureaucracy.

But for mid-sized and smaller producers, who lack strong buffers or access to capital markets, planting decisions now depend on personal savings and informal deals.

The problem is amplified by a weak crop insurance net: the main federal subsidy programme covered 2.2 million hectares in 2025, under 5% of Brazil’s farm area.

For foreign readers, the message is simple. When a country that feeds much of the world starts to ration credit to its farmers, the effects will be felt beyond its borders.

This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error