Pine Agronegócios reports Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest will drop 8%, hitting 59.75 million 60-kg bags. Drought and heavy pruning slash Arabica production by 16% to 36.46 million bags.
Meanwhile, Robusta grows 8%, reaching 23.29 million bags, softening the blow. Brazil leads the world in coffee production and exports, trailing only the U.S. in consumption.
Last year’s drought in Minas Gerais and São Paulo cut rainfall 40-60%, per INMET. Farmers prune trees heavily, aiming to boost 2026/27 yields despite a zero harvest now.
Exports will fall 22% to 39.24 million bags, down from 50.5 million in 2024, says the MDIC. Domestic use drops 4.5% to 20.9 million bags as high prices bite. Stocks hit a historic low of 1.6 million bags, warns Pine.
Global coffee prices soar amid deficits, with Volcafe noting an 8.5 million-bag Arabica shortfall. Pine’s estimate undercuts Reuters’ 64.6 million-bag average, differing from CONAB’s 51.8 million forecast. StoneX predicts 65.6 million bags, banking on rain.
Farmers face tough choices after drought and heat disrupt flowering, a trend since 2020’s weather woes. Coffee employs 3.5 million Brazilians and earned $8.135 billion in 2024. However, tighter supply threatens that revenue.
Roasters may shift blends to Robusta, which surged 170% in exports last year. La Niña could bring rain, but excess might hurt Arabica again, per NOAA. Farmers irrigate more, learning from 2021’s frost recovery.
The industry adapts as Brazil’s output shapes global markets, producing a third of all coffee. Low stocks and reduced exports signal higher prices ahead. African nations like Ethiopia may fill gaps if Brazil falters further.
This dip reverses recent gains, with 2024’s 58 million bags a peak, says CONAB. Pruning and weather remain wild cards for recovery. Businesses watch closely as coffee’s economic weight tests Brazil’s resilience.