Brazilian Real Extends Gains Against Dollar on Policy Divergence

Financial analysts report that the dollar weakened further against the Brazilian real on September 13, 2025.

Markets price in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week. Traders note eased U.S.-Brazil tensions after no new retaliations followed the Supreme Court’s ruling on former President Jair Bolsonaro.

The pair traded at 5.3484 reais per dollar on September 12, down 0.77 percent. This followed a close at 5.3537, the lowest since June 7, 2024. Weekly decline hit 1.11 percent. Year-to-date losses reached 13.36 percent.

U.S. jobless claims surged to 263,000. Forecasters predicted 235,000. This data depressed Treasury yields. Participants see it as bolstering Fed easing bets.

Brazil’s services sector expanded 0.3 percent monthly in July. Gains marked six consecutive months. Yearly growth achieved 2.8 percent, exceeding estimates of 2.6 percent.

An investment partner stated markets expected harsher U.S. responses. He observed none materialized. The U.S. secretary called the decision a witch hunt. Officials pledged suitable replies.

Mercantile actors recall July’s 50 percent U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports. Leaders tied them to the Bolsonaro proceedings.

Current calm aids shippers with stronger real values. Buyers of U.S. goods encounter steeper prices.

Macro elements underscore splits. Fed moves dilute dollar strength. Brazil’s rates lure investments.

Risk flows favor emerging units. Dollar index climbed to 97.61 on September 12 yet dropped 10.08 percent yearly.

Brazilian Real Extends Gains Against Dollar on Policy Divergence

One analyst posted that USD/BRL nears 5.30 Fibonacci level. He links it to risk-on sentiment. Charts suggest tests at 5.00 possible.

Daily technicals display price below 200-day simple average near 5.5000. Exponential averages decline steadily. Relative strength index reads 34, signaling oversold areas.

MACD crosses under its signal line. Bollinger Bands narrow amid low volatility. Support emerges at 5.3000. Resistance builds around 5.4000.

Four-hour view confirms downtrends. Candles create lower peaks and troughs. Volumes taper, supporting consistent sales pressure.

Yellow line depicts Global Liquidity Index NDQ. It descends across charts. This reflects shrinking liquidity globally. Dollar eases as borrowing tightens elsewhere.

Into September 13 morning, rates hovered near 5.3480. Overnight trading showed slight softening. No fresh catalysts disrupted flows.

Options data lists USD/BRL strikes at 5.5000 with $510.9 million. These eye Monday expiries. Volumes align with gradual shifts.

Divergent policies and trade stability propel the real’s advance. Enterprises recalibrate for currency shifts. Observers watch Fed outcomes closely.

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