Workers’ Day · B3 Closed · Ibovespa +1.4% Reclaims Kijun · Brent Reversal $126→$114 · S&P 500 Record 7,209 · Alphabet +10% · GDP Miss / PCE Hot · War Day 62
Workers’ Day Pause: The Ibovespa Reclaimed the Kijun, Oil Reversed From $126, and the S&P Hit a Record — Now Brazil Rests
Today’s Brazil morning call arrives on Workers’ Day — B3 is closed, as are most of Latin America, Europe, and Asia. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Thursday’s session was the mirror image of Wednesday’s carnage. The Ibovespa opened at its low — 184,758.66 — and rallied without respite to a high of 187,920.77 before closing at 187,317.64 (+1.39%, +2,567.22 points). The index reclaimed the Kijun at 187,197, the exact level it had broken the day before. Open = Low (the inverse of Wednesday’s Open = High) for the first time in seven sessions — buyers controlled from the first tick. The Copom comunicado’s cautious tone — cutting to 14.50% while raising its own IPCA 2026 projection to 4.6% (above the 4.5% ceiling) — was absorbed as hawkish-neutral, and the market read it correctly: the cutting cycle continues but is constrained, which is structurally supportive. Unemployment came in at 6.1%, in line with consensus. The real strengthened to R$4.9556.
The dominant catalyst was oil’s reversal. Brent surged to $126 in early Thursday trading — the wartime high — on the CENTCOM military briefing headlines, then reversed sharply through the session to close at $114.01 (−3.4%). WTI settled at $105.07. The intraday rejection of $126 is the most important oil price action since the war began: it suggests either the military option is being walked back, or the market is pricing in demand destruction at these levels. Either way, the reversal was enough to trigger a global risk-on surge. In New York, the S&P 500 closed at 7,209.01 (+1.02%) — its first close above 7,200 and a new all-time high. The Nasdaq hit 24,892.31 (+0.89%), also a record. Both posted their best monthly performances since 2020: the S&P rose 10% in April, the Nasdaq 15%, the SOX semiconductor index 35%. Alphabet surged 10% on enterprise AI wins; Caterpillar jumped 10% on earnings; Eli Lilly added 7%. Meta fell 8.6% on capex, Microsoft −3.9%. Apple beat after-hours (+2%). Today: Workers’ Day. B3, most of LatAm, Europe, and Asia closed. US markets open. ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 ET, cons: 53.1). Baker Hughes rig count. CFTC positioning. Thin liquidity. War Day 62.
Three Things That Matter
| Yesterday | Ibovespa +1.39% to 187,318 — reclaimed Kijun at 187,197. O:184,759 (= Low), H:187,921, C:187,318. First Open = Low in 7 sessions. Brent reversed from $126 wartime high to close at $114.01 (−3.4%). WTI $105.07. S&P 500 +1.02% to 7,209 — ALL-TIME HIGH, first close above 7,200. Best month since 2020 (+10%). Nasdaq +0.89% to 24,892 (ATH, +15% in April). Dow +790 to 49,652. Alphabet +10% (AI wins). Meta −8.6% (capex). Microsoft −3.9%. Caterpillar +10%. Eli Lilly +7%. Qualcomm +16%. US GDP Q1: +2.0% (missed 2.2% cons). Core PCE Q1: +4.3% (above 4.1% cons). PCE Prices Q1 +4.5%. Initial claims at 50-year low. Brazil unemployment 6.1% (in-line). ECB held 2.15%. BoE held 3.75%. USD/BRL R$4.9556 (+0.14%). Gold +2.24% to $4,654. BTC +1.05% to $77,115 |
| Overnight | Apple Q2 beat after-hours: EPS and revenue above estimates, but iPhone revenue missed for 2nd time in 3 quarters. Shares +2% AH. Amazon +3% pre-market on cloud AI revenue beat. S&P 500 futures +0.19%. Traders pricing 75% ECB hike June, 50%+ BoE hike after both held Thursday — hawkish shift on oil-driven inflation. BoE Gov Bailey: “most difficult combination” of economic effects. Japan yen strengthened 2.7% to 155.59 on intervention warnings. UK Nationwide HPI +3.0% YoY (beat 2.2% cons). Asian markets mostly closed for May Day. Brent steady near $110 in Friday pre-market |
| Today | WORKERS’ DAY — B3 CLOSED. Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, most of Europe, China, South Korea all closed. US markets open. ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr (10:00 ET, cons: 53.1 vs prev 52.7). ISM Manufacturing Prices (cons: 80.0 vs prev 78.3). ISM Employment (cons: 49.0). S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (09:45, cons: 54.0). Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (13:00). CFTC positioning data (15:30). Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 (11:30, cons: 3.7%). UK Manufacturing PMI (04:30, cons: 53.6). BoE Consumer Credit. Peru CPI. Thin global liquidity. War Day 62 |
Where We Left Off THURSDAY, APR 30 — LAST SESSION OF APRIL
Thursday delivered the snapback that yesterday’s Morning Call identified as the bull case’s best scenario: oil reversal + Copom digestion + data in-line. The Ibovespa opened at its low of 184,758.66 — matching Wednesday’s close almost exactly — and rallied steadily through the entire session to a high of 187,920.77, closing at 187,317.64 (+1.39%, +2,567.22 points). The Open = Low pattern is the exact inversion of the four consecutive Open = High sessions that defined the selloff: sellers exhausted, buyers stepped in at the bell, and the index reclaimed the Kijun at 187,197 before the close. The recovery of 2,567 points — roughly two-thirds of Wednesday’s 3,868-point loss — is textbook mean reversion from oversold conditions.
The Copom comunicado was digested overnight as hawkish-neutral. The BCB cut 25bp to 14.50% but simultaneously raised its own IPCA 2026 projection from 3.9% to 4.6% — above the 4.50% target ceiling. This is the first time in the current cycle that the BCB is cutting while officially projecting above-ceiling inflation. The comunicado offered no guidance for June, stated it must “incorporate new information” on the conflict, and emphasized the divergence between current inflation and the target. The market read this correctly: the cutting cycle is alive but constrained, and 14.50% Selic still supports the carry trade. Banks posted broad gains — Itaú +2%, Eletrobras +2.6%. Petrobras edged up 0.2% despite oil pulling back.
In New York, the session was dominated by oil’s reversal and Mag 7 earnings. Brent’s rejection of $126 — surging there intraday before closing at $114.01 — was the single most important price action of the month. The reversal triggered a global risk-on surge that sent the S&P 500 to its first close above 7,200 and the Nasdaq to 24,892, both all-time highs. The S&P rose 10% in April, the Nasdaq 15% — both the strongest monthly performances since 2020. Alphabet surged 10% after enterprise AI client wins drove cloud revenue above expectations. Caterpillar jumped 10% on a broad earnings beat with raised guidance. But the AI capex debate deepened: Meta fell 8.6% after raising capex to $125–145B, Microsoft lost 3.9% on $190B spending guidance. On the data front, US Q1 GDP came in at +2.0% (below 2.2% consensus), while Core PCE printed +4.3% (above 4.1%) — a soft growth / hot inflation combo that reinforces the stagflation narrative. Initial jobless claims hit a 50-year low.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, APR 30 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 187,317.64 | +1.39% (KIJUN RECLAIMED) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9556 | +0.14% (BRL strengthens) |
| S&P 500 | 7,209.01 | +1.02% ALL-TIME HIGH (Apr +10%) |
| Nasdaq | 24,892.31 | +0.89% ALL-TIME HIGH (Apr +15%) |
| Dow Jones | 49,652.14 | +1.62% (+790 pts · CAT +10%) |
| Brent Crude | $114.01 | −3.4% (rejected $126 high) |
| WTI Crude | $105.07 | −1.7% (off $110 highs) |
| Gold | $4,654 | +2.24% (rebounded from lows) |
| Bitcoin | $77,115 | +1.05% |
| US GDP Q1 | +2.0% | MISS (cons 2.2%) |
| Core PCE Q1 | +4.3% | HOT (cons 4.1%) |
| Selic Rate | 14.50% | BCB IPCA 2026 raised to 4.6% |
What to Watch FRIDAY — WORKERS’ DAY
B3 is closed for Workers’ Day. Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, China, South Korea, India — all closed. US and UK markets are the only major venues open. This means Friday’s ISM Manufacturing data and any oil headlines will price into LatAm and European markets only when they reopen Monday, May 4. The Ibovespa closes April at 187,318 — down 11,340 points (5.7%) from the 198,658 ATH but up 2,567 from Wednesday’s panic low.
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET is the day’s only high-impact data point. Consensus is 53.1 (prev 52.7). ISM Prices Paid consensus 80.0 (prev 78.3) — the prices component matters more than the headline given Thursday’s stagflation data combo (weak GDP + hot PCE). A reading above 80 would reinforce the inflation persistence narrative. ISM Employment (cons 49.0) is still in contraction territory. A hot ISM print adds to the case that the Fed is done cutting for this cycle — and may hike. Traders are now pricing 75% probability of an ECB hike in June and 50%+ for a BoE hike, a dramatic hawkish repricing driven entirely by oil.
Apple’s after-hours beat needs to be priced in. The company beat on EPS and revenue but missed on iPhone — the same pattern as last quarter. Shares rose 2% AH. Combined with Alphabet’s +10% on AI, the market enters May with a bifurcated Mag 7 narrative: Alphabet/Apple/Amazon on the winning side, Meta/Microsoft on the capex-concern side, and Nvidia in the crossfire.
Brent near $110 on Friday pre-market. The reversal from $126 to $114 on Thursday was the most significant oil move since the war began. If Brent stabilizes in the $108–115 range through Friday’s thin-liquidity session, the Ibovespa will likely gap higher on Monday’s reopen. If military escalation headlines return over the holiday weekend, the gap could go the other way. The Baker Hughes rig count at 13:00 ET (prev 407 oil rigs) provides a secondary read on US supply response.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
Thursday: O:184,758.66, H:187,920.77, L:184,758.66, C:187,317.64 (+1.39%, +2,567.22). Open = Low for the first time in seven sessions — the bullish inversion of the Open = High pattern that dominated the selloff. The 3,162-point intraday range is large but narrower than Wednesday’s 4,200. MACD: main line at 1,993.92, signal at 600.26, histogram at −1,393.66 — still deeply negative, but the histogram’s rate of decline is decelerating. RSI at 58.79, signal at 44.99 — the main RSI has lifted from 60.53 (confusing due to the lag), while the signal is climbing off the 38.54 panic low. The convergence suggests the bearish momentum regime is pausing, not reversing yet.
Resistance: 187,318 (Thursday close) → 187,921 (Thursday high) → 189,635 (Apr 25 close) → 190,610 → 190,794 → 198,658 (ATH).
Support: 187,197 (Kijun — RECLAIMED, now support again) → 184,759 (Thursday low / Wednesday close) → 183,794 (cloud base) → 183,263 (March 25 swing low) → 160,790 (200-day SMA).
Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.50% · NEXT MEETING: JUNE 17–18
The market has now had 18 hours to digest the Copom’s full comunicado, and the consensus read is hawkish-neutral. The BCB cut 25bp to 14.50% (unanimous) but delivered three hawkish signals: (1) raised its own IPCA 2026 projection from 3.9% to 4.6% — above the 4.50% target ceiling — the first time in the current cycle the BCB is cutting while projecting above-ceiling inflation; (2) raised its Q4 2027 projection from 3.3% to 3.5%; (3) offered no guidance for June. The key phrase: the BCB must “incorporate new information to define future monetary policy,” highlighting the possibility of adjusting “the calibration cycle.” Translation: 25bp cuts continue only if oil cooperates. With Brent’s rejection of $126 and pullback to $114, the oil variable has improved marginally — but $114 is still far above the BCB’s ~$80 reference scenario. The Copom ata (minutes) releases Tuesday, May 6. Focus survey Monday, May 5. Itaú/Bradesco earnings May 5. The next six weeks before the June 17–18 meeting will be driven entirely by oil and the Focus survey trajectory.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, MAY 1 — WORKERS’ DAY
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| All Day | HOLIDAY: Workers’ Day / Labor Day — B3 (Brazil), BCS (Chile), BVC (Colombia), BMV (Mexico), BYMA (Argentina), all Eurozone exchanges, China, South Korea, India closed. US and UK markets OPEN | HOLIDAY |
| 02:00 ET | UK Nationwide HPI YoY Apr: 3.0% (beat 2.2% cons). MoM: +0.4% (beat −0.3% cons) | LOW |
| 04:30 ET | UK Manufacturing PMI Apr (cons: 53.6 vs prev 51.0). BoE Consumer Credit (cons: 1.800B). Mortgage Approvals (cons: 60K). BoE MPC Member Pill speaks (07:15) | MEDIUM |
| 09:45 ET | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Apr (cons: 54.0 vs prev 54.0). Canada Manufacturing PMI | MEDIUM |
| 10:00 ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr (cons: 53.1 vs prev 52.7). ISM Manufacturing Prices (cons: 80.0 vs prev 78.3). ISM Employment (cons: 49.0 vs prev 48.7). ISM New Orders (prev: 53.5) | HIGH |
| 11:30 ET | Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 (cons: 3.7%) | LOW |
| 13:00 ET | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (prev: 407). Total Rig Count (prev: 544) | MEDIUM |
| 15:30 ET | CFTC Commitments of Traders: crude oil (prev: 192.3K net long), gold (164.0K), BRL (43.5K), S&P 500 (−110.1K net short) | LOW |
Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE — ALL CLOSED FRIDAY
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 187,317.64 | +1.39% | 58.79 | Kijun Reclaimed |
| IPC (Mexico) | 67,858.09 | +1.13% | 50.76 | Neutral |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,178.00 | +1.54% | 47.85 | Recovering |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,908.30 | +0.46% | 58.53 | Stable |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,832,851 | −0.21% | 51.24 | Neutral |
Thursday delivered the broadest LatAm relief rally since mid-April, led by Colombia’s COLCAP (+1.54%) which bounced from oversold levels after BanRep held rates at 11.25% as expected. Brazil’s Ibovespa reclaimed the Kijun with a +1.39% gain as the Copom cut was digested constructively. Mexico’s IPC surged 1.13% despite the preliminary Q1 GDP showing −0.2% QoQ contraction (better than the −0.5% consensus feared). Chile’s IPSA added 0.46%, stabilizing above the 10,900 level. Argentina’s MERVAL was the lone decliner (−0.21%), consolidating after its relative outperformance through the selloff. All five indices are closed Friday for Workers’ Day and reopen Monday. The weekend gap risk is entirely about oil and any Iran headlines — the S&P’s record close and Brent’s pullback from $126 set up a constructive reopen, but thin-liquidity weekends in wartime have been full of surprises.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Oil staged the most significant reversal of the war. Brent surged to $126 early Thursday — the wartime high — on the CENTCOM military briefing reports, then sold off steadily to close at $114.01 (−3.4%). WTI settled at $105.07 (−1.7%). The $12 intraday reversal in Brent is technically significant: it creates a massive bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, suggesting either that the military option is being walked back or that demand destruction at $120+ is real. Goldman noted global oil consumption in April may be 3.6 million bpd lower than February levels. US crude exports surged to a record above 6 million bpd — US producers are filling the Hormuz void. Friday pre-market: Brent steady near $110. The question for Monday’s LatAm reopen: does Brent stabilize in the $108–115 range (bullish for equities) or does a weekend escalation push it back toward $120+ (bearish)?
USD/BRL strengthened to R$4.9556 on Thursday — the BRL’s best close in the war’s post-ATH correction phase. O:4.9487, H:4.9556, L:4.9487, C:4.9556. RSI at 36.84 (signal: 33.98) — still deeply oversold in favor of the dollar, meaning the real continues to outperform what technical models would predict. The MACD histogram at +0.003 is barely positive. The carry trade’s structural integrity was confirmed again: the Copom cut to 14.50% while raising IPCA above ceiling, oil hit $126, equities fell 7% from ATH — and the real never broke R$5.00 for more than a fleeting moment. The R$4.95–5.00 range is now a three-week consolidation base. On Workers’ Day, the BRL is a spectator — but CFTC data tonight will show whether spec BRL longs (prev 43.5K contracts) have increased or decreased.
Bitcoin rose to $77,115 (+1.05%) — O:76,310, H:77,406, L:76,294. RSI at 60.26 (signal: 58.01) — bullish-neutral, with both lines converging above 50. The crypto complex benefited from Thursday’s broad risk-on move but remains range-bound between $72K–$78K. Gold rebounded sharply to $4,654 (+2.24%) as the dollar weakened on the GDP miss. The rally from Wednesday’s $4,557 low reclaims a significant portion of the recent selloff. Central bank buying remains structurally elevated through early 2026. Gold is now caught between two forces: hawkish rate repricing (negative) and renewed war risk premium + dollar weakness (positive).
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Oil’s rejection of $126 is technically definitive. The $12 intraday reversal in Brent creates a bearish engulfing candle at the wartime high. If Brent stabilizes in the $108–115 range through the weekend, the Ibovespa gaps higher on Monday’s reopen toward 189K–190K. The market just proved that $126 is the war’s demand ceiling for oil — every subsequent test is weaker.
The Kijun reclaim at 187,197 restores technical structure. After breaking the Kijun on Wednesday and reclaiming it Thursday, the index has established a tested-and-held support base at 184,750. The Open = Low reversal pattern after seven sessions of Open = High confirms seller exhaustion. The two-day round-trip (184,750→187,318) demonstrates structural buying interest. US equities at all-time highs enter May with the strongest April since 2020. The S&P +10%, Nasdaq +15%, SOX +35% provide the macro risk-on backdrop that supports global EM. Combined with the BRL holding below R$4.96, foreign inflows intact, and the carry trade validated at 14.50%, the Ibovespa’s path to 190K is the path of least resistance if oil cooperates. |
The stagflation data combo is real and worsening. US GDP at +2.0% (miss) with Core PCE at +4.3% (beat) is textbook stagflation. Initial claims at a 50-year low means the labor market is too hot for the Fed to cut. Traders are now pricing ECB and BoE hikes — the global rate cycle has shifted hawkish. This is structural headwind for EM that the Ibovespa’s bounce hasn’t priced.
The Copom is cutting while projecting above-ceiling inflation. IPCA 2026 at 4.6% vs the 4.5% ceiling means the BCB is officially acknowledging its inflation target is breached. Focus at 4.9%. The cutting cycle continues only because the alternative (holding or hiking into a war-driven oil shock) is worse — not because the data supports it. June is not guaranteed. The holiday weekend creates asymmetric gap risk. B3, most of LatAm, and Europe are closed Friday. Any military escalation headline, Hormuz incident, or Trump statement over the weekend prices into Monday with zero ability to hedge. Oil’s $126 spike was triggered by a single Axios headline about a military briefing — a weekend version of that scenario reopens the entire bear case with markets already closed. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
April’s final answer was not the catastrophe Wednesday threatened. The Ibovespa closed the month at 187,318 — down 11,340 points (5.7%) from the ATH but up 2,567 from the panic low, with the Kijun at 187,197 reclaimed and the six-session losing streak broken. Oil’s rejection of $126 and reversal to $114 is the most constructive oil price action since the war began: it suggests either the market has found a demand ceiling or the military escalation narrative has peaked. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at all-time highs, posting their best months since 2020. The BRL held below R$4.96. The correction was a correction, not a regime change.
But the structural tension hasn’t resolved — it has intensified. The Copom is now cutting while projecting above-ceiling inflation (IPCA 2026 at 4.6%). The Fed is done cutting and may hike. The ECB and BoE are both repricing toward hikes in June. Core PCE at 4.3% with GDP at 2.0% is stagflation by any reasonable definition. These are headwinds that a single day’s rebound doesn’t erase. The question for May is whether the correction from 198,658 to 184,750 was a one-time adjustment to the new oil regime, or the beginning of a repricing of the entire rate cycle. The Copom ata on Tuesday and the Focus survey on Monday are the first datapoints that will answer that question.
Bias: Cautiously constructive, with weekend gap risk as the dominant near-term variable. The Ibovespa reclaimed the Kijun, oil reversed from $126, the S&P is at record highs, and the BRL holds below R$4.96. If no escalation headlines emerge over the Workers’ Day weekend and Brent stays in the $108–115 range, Monday’s reopen targets 189K–190K. If the weekend brings military escalation, the 184,750 floor is retested. B3 is closed today. The US ISM print at 10:00 ET is the only data that matters — a hot Prices Paid component (>82) would reinforce the stagflation narrative and pressure US equities, spilling into Monday’s LatAm tape. Happy Workers’ Day. May begins with the best setup since mid-April — if the weekend cooperates.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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