Ibovespa Breaks 195,000 for Second Straight ATH — CPI at 08:30 Could Shatter the Party
Today’s Brazil morning call opens with the Ibovespa at an all-time high and a potential inflation shock dead ahead. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
The ceasefire rally extended into a second day on Thursday. The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to 6,825, notching its seventh consecutive winning session — the longest streak since October. The Dow climbed 0.58% to 48,186, turning positive for 2026 for the first time. The Nasdaq gained 0.83% to 22,822. But the Ibovespa stole the show: it surged 1.52% to 195,129, smashing through its Wednesday ATH of 192,201 to reach an intraday peak of 195,514. RSI hit 69.38 — deep into overbought territory. The USD/BRL collapsed to R$5.0573 (−0.85%), the strongest real since mid-2024. Oil rebounded: WTI settled +3.7% at $97.87 after touching $100 intraday, as Iran’s Strait re-closure after Israeli Lebanon strikes reminded the market that physical flows remain blocked.
The data picture sharpened. Core PCE came in at +0.4% MoM / +3.0% YoY — in line but uncomfortably high with the war premium still embedded. Q4 GDP was revised sharply lower to +0.5% (miss vs +0.7% cons). Jobless claims jumped to 219K (above 210K cons). The stagflation signal is alive: inflation running at 3% before the oil shock, growth decelerating, labor softening at the margins.
Friday delivers the main event: March CPI at 08:30 ET (cons: +1.0% MoM / +3.4% YoY headline; core +0.3% MoM / +2.7% YoY). This is the first inflation print that captures the oil shock’s full impact. If headline CPI hits 3.4% — up from 2.4% in February — it would be the largest one-month jump since the 2022 spike. Brazil releases March IPCA (08:00 BRT, cons: +0.77% MoM / +4.00% YoY). Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00, cons: 51.6). War Day 42.
Three Things That Matter
| Thursday | S&P 500 +0.62% to 6,825 (7th straight win, longest since Oct). Dow +0.58% to 48,186 (positive for 2026). Nasdaq +0.83% to 22,822. Ibovespa +1.52% to 195,129 (NEW ATH, intraday 195,514, RSI 69.38). USD/BRL −0.85% to R$5.0573. Core PCE: +0.4% MoM / +3.0% YoY (in-line). GDP Q4 revised to +0.5% (miss, from +0.7% cons). Claims: 219K (above 210K cons). Personal income −$18.2B. WTI +3.7% to $97.87 (touched $100). Brent +1% to $95.92. Gold ~$4,728. VIX 21.04. Delta earnings cautious. Software stocks sold off. Iran Strait remained largely blocked despite ceasefire. Hormuz toll negotiations ongoing |
| Ceasefire Status | Day 2 of ceasefire. Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked — Iran controls access, only limited tanker traffic. Israel-Lebanon strikes continue despite ceasefire, with Israel insisting deal excludes Hezbollah. Iran maintains the ceasefire applies to Lebanon. Toll negotiations for Strait passage underway between Iran, Oman. VP Vance reiterated “serious consequences” if Iran breaks deal. Pentagon says “the military’s job is done.” Ceasefire holds formally but physical Strait status unchanged. Talks to move to Islamabad. S&P futures flat to slightly negative overnight |
| Today | CPI DOUBLE-HEADER: BRL IPCA (08:00 BRT, cons: +0.77% MoM / +4.00% YoY — critical for BCB). US CPI (08:30 ET, cons: +1.0% MoM / +3.4% YoY headline; core +0.3% / +2.7%). German CPI confirmed +2.7% YoY. Canada Employment (08:30, cons: +14.5K, unemployment 6.8%). Factory Orders (10:00, cons: −0.3%). Michigan Sentiment (10:00, cons: 51.6). Michigan Inflation Expectations (10:00, prev: 3.8% 1Y / 3.2% 5Y). Mexico Industrial Production (08:00). Baker Hughes Rig Count (13:00). Federal Budget Balance (14:00). CFTC positioning data (15:30). War Day 42 |
Where We Left Off THURSDAY, APR 9 — SESSION CLOSE
The ceasefire rally extended but with a different character than Wednesday’s euphoria. The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to 6,824.66 for its seventh consecutive gain — the longest winning streak since October. The Dow climbed 275.88 points (+0.58%) to 48,185.80, turning positive for 2026 for the first time. The Nasdaq advanced 0.83% to 22,822.42. But the session opened in the red — the S&P fell 0.2% at the bell and the Dow dropped 204 points — before recovering as traders concluded the ceasefire would survive its early tensions. Bloomberg noted equity gains extended into a seventh straight day despite a selloff in software shares.
The Ibovespa was extraordinary for a second day. From the chart: O:192,206, H:195,514, L:192,206, C:195,129 (+1.52%). The index obliterated its one-day-old ATH of 192,201 to close at 195,129, with an intraday peak of 195,514. RSI surged to 69.38 (MA: 55.88) — now firmly in overbought territory, the highest reading since the war began. MACD histogram at 2,466 (MACD: 1,252.91, signal: 1,210.91) — the bullish crossover continues to expand. The USD/BRL crashed to R$5.0573 (chart: O:5.1005, H:5.1062, L:5.0573, C:5.0573, −0.85%) — the strongest real since mid-2024. RSI on USD/BRL at 45.30 (MA: 34.32) shows deep oversold territory on the moving average.
The data dump delivered a mixed verdict. Core PCE at +0.4% MoM / +3.0% YoY matched consensus — no surprise, no relief. Q4 GDP was revised sharply lower to +0.5% annualized, missing the +0.7% expectation and reflecting weakness in government spending and exports. Jobless claims jumped to 219K, above the 210K consensus and up 16K from the prior week — the first post-tariff softening signal. Personal income fell $18.2 billion. The stagflation cocktail — 3% inflation, sub-1% growth, rising claims — was already brewing before the oil shock. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the PCE report confirmed that inflation was problematic before the war, not because of it.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, APR 9 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 195,129 | +1.52% (NEW ATH) |
| USD/BRL | R$5.0573 | −0.85% (BRL ↑) |
| S&P 500 | 6,825 | +0.62% (7th win) |
| Dow | 48,186 | +0.58% (YTD +) |
| Nasdaq | 22,822 | +0.83% |
| WTI Crude | $97.87 | +3.7% |
| Brent Crude | $95.92 | +1.1% |
| Gold | ~$4,728 | Flat |
| Core PCE (Feb) | +3.0% YoY | In-line (still hot) |
| GDP Q4 (Final) | +0.5% | Miss (vs +0.7%) |
What to Watch FRIDAY CATALYSTS
The March CPI at 08:30 ET is the single most important data point of the month. Consensus expects headline CPI to jump to +1.0% MoM / +3.4% YoY — from just +0.3% / +2.4% in February. If confirmed, it would mark the largest month-over-month increase since 2022 and the first time headline inflation has exceeded 3% since late 2024. Core CPI is expected at +0.3% MoM / +2.7% YoY. The headline surge is driven almost entirely by the oil shock — gasoline prices surged above $4/gallon during March as the Hormuz closure took hold. The question: does the market treat this as transitory (war-driven, already reversing) or structural (embedded cost-push that persists)?
Brazil’s IPCA at 08:00 BRT (cons: +0.77% MoM / +4.00% YoY) is equally critical for the BCB. If confirmed at 4.00%, it would breach the upper end of the tolerance band and push the 12-month rate above the target ceiling. This directly constrains the BCB’s ability to cut at the April 28 meeting, regardless of what happens with the ceasefire. The combination of CPI (US) and IPCA (Brazil) within 30 minutes of each other makes the 08:00-08:30 window the most consequential of the week for BRL assets.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 (cons: 51.6) and inflation expectations (prev: 3.8% 1-year / 3.2% 5-year) will show whether consumers are internalizing the oil price surge. If 1-year expectations jump above 4%, the Fed’s de-anchoring fear kicks in. Canada’s employment report at 08:30 (cons: +14.5K after −83.9K) is the first G7 labor print to capture early April dynamics. Baker Hughes rig count at 13:00 shows U.S. drilling response to elevated crude.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The Ibovespa is in uncharted territory — literally. From the chart: O:192,206, H:195,514, L:192,206, C:195,129 (+1.52%). Two consecutive ATH sessions. RSI at 69.38 (MA: 55.88) is in overbought territory — the highest reading since the war began and approaching the 70 threshold that historically triggers short-term pullbacks. MACD histogram at 2,466 (MACD: 1,252.91, signal: 1,210.91) — bullish but the acceleration is extreme. The 200-day SMA at 156,940 is now 24% below the current price, reflecting the massive structural rally since the Q4 lows.
Resistance: 195,129 (Thursday close / new closing ATH) → 195,514 (intraday ATH) → 196,000-197,000 (uncharted — no historical reference points).
Support: 193,603 (mid-range) → 192,201 (Wednesday’s ATH, now support) → 188,245 (upper mid-Bollinger) → 187,921 (SMA vicinity) → 185,277 / 185,277 (SMA cluster) → 184,842 (20-day) → 183,862 (lower range) → 174,121 (lower Bollinger) → 156,940 (200-day).
Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29
Today’s IPCA print may be the defining input for the April 28 Copom decision. If March IPCA comes in at +0.77% / +4.00% YoY as expected, the 12-month rate hits the upper tolerance band — making a May cut virtually impossible regardless of the ceasefire’s status. The BCB was already in a difficult position with Core PCE at 3.0% globally and WTI rebounding to $98. A hot IPCA (above +0.80%) would shift the conversation from “hold” to “could they hike?” A cool IPCA (below +0.70%) would provide the breathing room for dovish forward guidance even with a hold.
The USD/BRL at R$5.06 is the BCB’s strongest ally. The real’s appreciation acts as a natural tightening mechanism — reducing imported inflation pressure and easing the pass-through from $98 oil. The 14.75% Selic carry continues to attract inflows. But the FOMC Minutes showed some Fed officials contemplating rate hikes, and yesterday’s PCE at 3.0% + GDP at 0.5% is a stagflation setup that constrains global easing. The BCB can afford patience — but the ceasefire’s two-week window expires April 21, one week before the decision. The April 28 meeting remains one of the most uncertain in recent memory.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, APR 10
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Market | German CPI confirmed +2.7% YoY / +1.1% MoM (in-line). Italian Industrial Production (04:00, cons: +0.5%). Italian BTP auctions (05:10). ECB’s De Guindos speaks (06:00). European inflation data wall | MEDIUM |
| 07:00–08:30 | CPI DOUBLE-HEADER: BRL Retail Sales (07:00 BRT). BRL IPCA (08:00, cons: +0.77% MoM / +4.00% YoY — BCB critical). Mexico Industrial Production (08:00). US CPI (08:30, cons: +1.0% MoM / +3.4% YoY headline; core +0.3% / +2.7%). Canada Employment (08:30, cons: +14.5K). Real Earnings (08:30). First inflation print capturing full oil shock | CRITICAL |
| 10:00–15:30 | Factory Orders (10:00, cons: −0.3%). Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00, cons: 51.6). Michigan Inflation Expectations (10:00, prev: 3.8% 1Y / 3.2% 5Y — de-anchoring risk). Cleveland CPI (11:00). Baker Hughes Rig Count (13:00, prev: 411). Federal Budget Balance (14:00, cons: −$157.8B). CFTC Positioning (15:30 — crude speculative positions critical) | HIGH |
Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE / CHART DATA
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 195,129 | +1.52% | 69.38 | Overbought |
| IPC (Mexico) | 70,314 | +0.13% | 59.87 | Bullish |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,294 | +0.36% | 49.77 | Neutral |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,958 | +0.92% | 59.98 | Bullish |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,999,608 | −0.38% | 57.08 | Neutral |
The Ibovespa’s dominance over the region continues to widen. At 195,129 with RSI 69.38, it is the only LatAm index in overbought territory — a testament to the structural bid from carry, commodities, and ceasefire relief. Chile’s IPSA extended gains to 10,958 (+0.92%), with RSI recovering to 59.98 and approaching bullish breakout territory. Mexico’s IPC consolidated at 70,314 (+0.13%) with RSI holding at 59.87 — steady but not overextended. Colombia’s COLCAP continued its underperformance at 2,294 (+0.36%), neutral RSI at 49.77, weighed by oil-sector uncertainty. Argentina’s MERVAL slipped 0.38% to 2,999,608, frustratingly close to the 3 million psychological level. The divergence between Brazil (overbought, ATH) and the rest of the region (neutral) is the widest it has been since the war began. As covered in the latest Ibovespa market report, Brazil’s carry advantage is the primary driver of this outperformance.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Oil rebounded sharply on Thursday after Wednesday’s historic crash. WTI rose 3.7% to $97.87, touching $100.27 intraday — a reminder that the ceasefire hasn’t physically reopened the Strait. Brent added 1.1% to $95.92. The market’s message is clear: $94 was the headline reaction; $97-100 is the physical reality while Hormuz remains blocked. Iran continues to control Strait access, and satellite data shows no meaningful increase in traffic. The ceasefire is diplomatic, not logistical. If March CPI confirms the oil shock’s pass-through to prices, the rebound in crude compounds the inflation narrative.
USD/BRL made a historic move, crashing to R$5.0573 (chart: O:5.1005, H:5.1062, L:5.0573, C:5.0573, −0.85%). The real is now at its strongest since mid-2024. RSI at 45.30 (MA: 34.32) shows the pair deeply oversold on the moving average. The MACD remains bearish at −0.0156 (signal: −0.0162, MACD: −0.0318). The R$5.00 psychological barrier is the next target. If today’s IPCA comes in hot, expect a modest BRL weakening as rate-cut expectations fade. If IPCA is cool, R$5.00 is within reach.
Gold held flat at ~$4,728, caught between ceasefire relief (bearish for safe havens) and inflation data (bullish for hard assets). Today’s CPI is the catalyst: a hot print at +3.4% YoY would confirm inflation re-acceleration and support gold above $4,700. A miss to the downside opens the door for a move toward $4,600 as the risk-on rotation continues.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| The seven-day winning streak and breadth confirm a regime change — Yardeni cut recession odds to 20%. JPMorgan called it a “Global Growth Reboot.” The Dow is positive for 2026 for the first time. The S&P 500’s longest winning streak since October shows institutional conviction, not just short-covering. The Ibovespa at 195,129 is not just a ceasefire bounce — it’s a structural rerating of Brazil.
CPI’s oil shock is backward-looking and already reversing — March CPI will capture $100+ oil, but the ceasefire has already pulled crude 15% lower. If the market treats the headline spike as peak inflation, the forward curve reprices toward normalization. Core CPI at +2.7% would show underlying inflation is moderating even as energy distorts the headline. BRL at R$5.06 is the Ibovespa’s accelerant — A stronger real compresses imported inflation, supports the BCB’s flexibility, and attracts carry-seeking capital. The virtuous cycle of carry + appreciation + equity gains is the most powerful in EM right now. |
RSI at 69.38 is screaming for a pullback — The Ibovespa has gained ~7,000 points in two sessions. The last time RSI approached 70, a multi-day correction followed. The rally has been fast, headline-driven, and concentrated. A hot IPCA or US CPI could trigger profit-taking from overbought levels. Two straight ATH sessions without consolidation is unsustainable.
The Strait hasn’t actually reopened — Oil bounced 3.7% on Thursday because physical reality hasn’t changed. Satellite data shows minimal traffic. Iran is charging tolls and controlling access. If the ceasefire collapses on April 21, the entire oil crash reverses and the inflation surge becomes permanent. The market is pricing peace that doesn’t exist on the water. Stagflation data is hardening — GDP at 0.5%. Core PCE at 3.0%. Claims at 219K (rising). Personal income falling. ISM Services Employment at 45.2. The Fed is stuck — some officials contemplating hikes per the FOMC Minutes. If headline CPI hits 3.4% and core hits 2.7%, the “no cuts in 2026” camp strengthens. For Brazil, IPCA at 4.0% closes the cut door. The ceasefire euphoria may have run its course — today’s data determines whether it was justified. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The Ibovespa at 195,129 is a remarkable achievement — two consecutive all-time highs, a 7,000-point surge in 48 hours, RSI approaching 70, and the strongest real since mid-2024. Brazil has emerged from six weeks of war as the undisputed leader among emerging markets. The carry trade at 14.75%, the commodity exposure, the geopolitical distance — every structural advantage has compounded. But the technical warning lights are flashing: RSI at 69.38 has historically preceded corrections, and the IPCA at 08:00 BRT could be the catalyst for one.
Today is a data day, not a headline day. The ceasefire narrative is priced. The diplomatic maneuvering over Lebanon and Hormuz tolls will continue in the background. What matters now is whether the inflation damage from the war is transitory or structural — and both the IPCA and CPI will provide the answer within 30 minutes of each other. A hot IPCA (+4.0%+) closes the BCB’s cut window. A hot US CPI (+3.4%+) closes the Fed’s. The combination of both locks in “higher for longer” globally and tests whether the ceasefire rally can survive the inflation reality.
For positioning into the weekend: the seven-day winning streak, the overbought RSI, and the CPI event risk all argue for caution. The ceasefire has been extraordinary for Brazilian assets — but two consecutive ATH sessions with RSI near 70, ahead of the most important inflation print of 2026, into a weekend where Hormuz physical flows remain uncertain, is the textbook definition of elevated risk/reward skew. Protect gains. Watch the 08:00-08:30 window. And remember: the ceasefire expires in 12 days, and the BCB meets in 19 days. The next two weeks will determine whether 195,000 was a launching pad or a peak.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.