Ceasefire Under Siege: Hormuz Re-Closed After Israeli Lebanon Strikes — PCE and GDP on Deck
Today’s Brazil morning call opens with the ceasefire already in jeopardy, less than 24 hours after it was announced. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Wednesday was euphoric. The Dow surged 1,325 points (+2.85%) — its best day since April 2025. The S&P 500 soared 2.51% to 6,783, Nasdaq jumped 2.80% to 22,635. WTI crashed 16% to $94.41, its biggest daily drop since April 2020. The Ibovespa exploded 2.09% to 192,201, blasting through its February all-time high to reach 193,759 intraday. The relief trade was global and unequivocal. Then came the collapse. Israel launched widespread strikes across Lebanon, claiming the ceasefire did not include Hezbollah. Iran’s IRGC responded by re-closing the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violating the deal. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi stated bluntly: “The U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.” Oil futures jumped 2.5-2.8% after hours. S&P 500 futures turned negative, down ~0.1-0.2%.
Thursday delivers the most important economic data release of the month: Core PCE at 08:30 ET (cons: +0.4% MoM / +3.0% YoY) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — alongside Q4 GDP revision (cons: +0.7%), initial jobless claims (cons: 210K), and personal income/spending. The collision of a fragmenting ceasefire with hard inflation data creates one of the most complex trading environments of 2026. War Day 41.
Three Things That Matter
| Wednesday | Ceasefire rally day. Dow +1,325 pts (+2.85%) to 47,910 — best day since Apr 2025. S&P 500 +2.51% to 6,783. Nasdaq +2.80% to 22,635. VIX crushed −18.4% to 21.04. WTI −16% to $94.41 (biggest drop since Apr 2020). Brent −15% to ~$93.90. Gold +$49 to ~$4,728. Ibovespa +2.09% to 192,201 (new ATH, intraday 193,759). USD/BRL crashed to R$5.10 (BRL strongest since early 2024). Delta Air Lines reported Q1, guided cautiously. Energy sector hammered: Exxon, Chevron, OXY all down. Tech/growth surged. FOMC Minutes showed March committee worried about oil-driven inflation but holding. Yardeni cut recession probability to 20% from 35%. Satellite data showed only limited Strait movement despite ceasefire |
| Overnight | CEASEFIRE UNDER THREAT: Israel launched widespread strikes across Lebanon, claiming deal excludes Hezbollah. Iran’s IRGC re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violation. Araghchi: “The U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel.” Pakistan’s PM said ceasefire includes Lebanon; Netanyahu said it does not. VP Vance warned: if Iran breaks its end, “serious consequences.” Pentagon’s Hegseth said Strait had reopened — then Iran reversed it. Two oil tankers passed through before closure. UN human rights chief condemned “horrific” scale of Lebanon killing. Oil futures +2.5-2.8% after hours. S&P futures −0.1-0.2%. Saudi East-West pipeline hit by drone strike |
| Today | CRITICAL DATA DAY: Core PCE (08:30 ET, cons: +0.4% MoM / +3.0% YoY — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). GDP Q4 revision (08:30, cons: +0.7%). Initial Jobless Claims (08:30, cons: 210K). Personal Income (cons: +0.3%) and Spending (cons: +0.6%). BRL Retail Sales (08:00 BRT). Mexico CPI (08:00, cons: +4.61% YoY). Atlanta Fed GDPNow (11:30). 30Y Bond Auction (13:00). WASDE Report (12:00). Colombia CPI (19:00, cons: +5.47%). Peru Rate Decision (19:00, cons: 4.25%). Korea Rate Decision (21:00). War Day 41 |
Where We Left Off WEDNESDAY, APR 8 — SESSION + AFTER-HOURS
Wednesday was the best day for U.S. equities in a year. The Dow surged 1,325.46 points (+2.85%) to 47,909.92, its strongest session since April 2025 when Trump first backed down from the severity of his tariff announcement. The S&P 500 popped 2.51% to 6,782.81 and the Nasdaq surged 2.80% to 22,635.00. The VIX was crushed 18.4% to 21.04. WTI crude crashed 16% to $94.41/bbl — its biggest single-day drop since April 2020. The rotation was violent: energy stocks (Exxon, Chevron, OXY) were hammered while tech, consumer discretionary, and rate-sensitive sectors surged. JPMorgan noted the “regime has shifted back to the Global Growth Reboot tape.”
The Ibovespa delivered a monster session. From the chart: O:188,261, H:193,759, L:188,260, C:192,201 (+2.09%). The index smashed through the February 25 all-time high of 191,247 to touch 193,759 intraday — a new all-time record. RSI jumped to 65.75 (MA: 54.25), entering overbought-adjacent territory. MACD histogram exploded to 1,912 (MACD: 961.94, signal: 950.18). The USD/BRL collapsed to R$5.10 (chart: O:5.1005, H:5.1005, L:5.1005, C:5.1005) — the strongest real since early 2024. RSI at 45.56 (MA: 37.98) shows the pair in deep downtrend territory. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the ceasefire catalyzed exactly the relief rally the bull case anticipated.
Then the ceasefire began to unravel. Israel launched widespread strikes across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, insisting the ceasefire applies only to Iran proper. The UN human rights chief called the scale of killing “horrific” and said it “places enormous pressure on a fragile peace.” Iran’s IRGC responded by re-closing the Strait of Hormuz, declaring Israel had violated the agreement. After allowing just two oil tankers through, passage was halted. Iran’s FM Araghchi issued a direct ultimatum: the U.S. must choose between the ceasefire and Israeli operations in Lebanon. Oil futures rose 2.5-2.8% after hours. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1-0.2%. A Saudi pipeline was hit by a drone strike. The two-week window that was supposed to buy time for peace is already being tested — and it’s been less than 24 hours.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF WED, APR 8 CLOSE + OVERNIGHT
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 192,201 | +2.09% (NEW ATH) |
| USD/BRL | R$5.10 | −1.0% (BRL ↑) |
| S&P 500 | 6,783 | +2.51% |
| S&P 500 Futures | ~6,813 | −0.16% (overnight) |
| Dow | 47,910 | +2.85% |
| Nasdaq | 22,635 | +2.80% |
| WTI Crude | $94.41 | −16.4% |
| WTI Futures (AH) | ~$97 | +2.8% (Hormuz re-close) |
| Gold | $4,728 | −1.04% |
| VIX | 21.04 | −18.4% |
What to Watch THURSDAY CATALYSTS
The 08:30 ET data dump is the most consequential of the month. Core PCE at +0.4% MoM / +3.0% YoY consensus would confirm that inflation was re-accelerating even before the full oil shock hit. A hotter print kills the rate-cut revival from Wednesday’s ceasefire rally. A cooler print (sub-0.3%) would validate the transitory narrative and supercharge the pivot trade. Simultaneously, Q4 GDP (cons: +0.7%) and personal spending (cons: +0.6%) reveal the economy’s pre-war momentum. Initial claims (cons: 210K) are the first post-tariff signal — any uptick hints at labor market softening.
The ceasefire dynamics will trade alongside data. Iran’s re-closure of Hormuz after Israeli Lebanon strikes creates a direct confrontation: does the U.S. force Israel to stop, or does the ceasefire collapse? VP Vance’s warning — “serious consequences” if Iran breaks its end — sets up a blame game. Oil’s after-hours bounce (+2.8%) suggests the market is already pricing some ceasefire degradation. If Hormuz remains closed through Thursday’s session, expect WTI to retrace toward $100.
Brazil releases February retail sales at 08:00 BRT (prev: +0.4% MoM / +2.8% YoY) — the domestic demand read. Mexico CPI at 08:00 (cons: +4.61% YoY) matters for Banxico. The 30-Year Bond Auction at 13:00 tests duration appetite post-ceasefire. The WASDE Report at 12:00 could move ags. Colombia CPI (19:00, cons: +5.47%) and Peru’s rate decision (19:00, cons: hold at 4.25%) round out the LatAm calendar. Korea’s rate decision (21:00) is the first Asian central bank to react to the ceasefire oil drop.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The Ibovespa delivered a breakout session. From the chart: O:188,261, H:193,759, L:188,260, C:192,201 (+2.09%). The index blew through the February 25 ATH at 191,247 and the intraday record at 192,624, reaching a new all-time high of 193,759. RSI surged to 65.75 (MA: 54.25) — now approaching overbought territory above 65 for the first time in months. MACD histogram at 1,912 (MACD: 961.94, signal: 950.18) — a strongly expanding bullish crossover. The ceasefire provided the catalyst that the technical setup had been building toward.
Resistance: 192,201 (Wednesday close / new closing ATH) → 193,759 (new intraday ATH) → 195,000 (psychological) → 191,566 (upper Bollinger vicinity).
Support: 187,368 (mid-range) → 186,544 (SMA vicinity) → 185,884 (mid-Bollinger) → 184,514 / 184,399 (SMA cluster) → 183,304 (20-day) → 182,789 (lower range) → 175,043 (lower Bollinger) → 156,647 (200-day).
Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29
The ceasefire’s fragility makes the BCB’s April 28 meeting even more uncertain. Wednesday’s oil crash to $94 and BRL strength to R$5.10 had briefly reopened the May cut conversation. But Iran’s re-closure of Hormuz overnight and the Lebanon escalation demonstrate that the inflation input channel remains highly unstable. The FOMC Minutes showed the March committee already worried about oil-driven price pressures — and that was when WTI was $30 lower.
Today’s Core PCE print at 08:30 ET matters directly for the BCB’s framework. If U.S. inflation is running hot, the Fed stays hawkish, which constrains global rate-cutting space. If PCE cools, the global easing cycle can rebuild — and Brazil’s domestic conditions (BRL at R$5.10, PPI at −4.5%, IPCA-15 at 3.90%) already support a cut. The ceasefire’s two-week window expires April 21 — exactly one week before the Copom decision. The BCB will be making its call while the world learns whether peace holds or war resumes. Expect a hold at 14.75% with dovish language if oil stays below $100 and the ceasefire survives.
Economic Calendar THURSDAY, APR 9
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Market | Japan Household Confidence missed badly (33.3 vs 38.3 cons). German exports +3.6% (beat), but industrial production −0.3% (miss vs +0.6%). Japan Machine Tool Orders +28.1% (acceleration). German Trade Balance €19.8B (beat). UK BoE Credit Conditions. Spanish bond auctions | MEDIUM |
| 08:00–08:30 | BRL Retail Sales (08:00 BRT, prev: +0.4% MoM / +2.8% YoY). Mexico CPI (08:00, cons: +4.61% YoY / +0.88% MoM). 08:30 ET MEGA DATA: Core PCE (cons: +0.4% MoM / +3.0% YoY). GDP Q4 (cons: +0.7%). Initial Claims (cons: 210K). Personal Income (+0.3%) and Spending (+0.6%). PCE Prices. GDP Price Index. Corporate Profits | CRITICAL |
| 10:00–13:00 ET | Dallas Fed PCE (10:00). Wholesale Inventories (10:00, cons: −0.5%). Natural Gas Storage (10:30, cons: +41B). Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 (11:30, prev: 1.3%). Mexico Monetary Policy Minutes (11:00). WASDE Report (12:00 — ag commodities). 30Y Bond Auction (13:00, prev: 4.871%) | HIGH |
| 19:00–21:00 | Colombia CPI (19:00, cons: +5.47% YoY). Peru Rate Decision (19:00, cons: hold 4.25%). Korea Rate Decision (21:00, cons: hold 2.50% — first Asian CB post-ceasefire). China CPI/PPI overnight. LatAm and Asian central bank reactions to oil drop | MEDIUM |
Latin America Markets WEDNESDAY CLOSE / CHART DATA
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 192,201 | +2.09% | 65.75 | Bullish |
| IPC (Mexico) | 70,222 | +2.47% | 59.56 | Bullish |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,286 | +0.21% | 48.72 | Neutral |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,858 | +3.23% | 57.56 | Bullish |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 3,011,186 | +1.30% | 55.64 | Neutral |
The ceasefire rally lifted all boats across LatAm on Wednesday. Chile’s IPSA was the standout, surging 3.23% to 10,858 with RSI recovering sharply to 57.56 from Tuesday’s 46.23. Mexico’s IPC rallied 2.47% to 70,222, reclaiming the 70,000 level with RSI flipping bullish at 59.56. Argentina’s MERVAL climbed 1.30% to 3,011,186, back above 3 million. Colombia’s COLCAP lagged at +0.21%, held back by the oil-producing country’s exposure to the crude crash. The Ibovespa led the region in absolute terms with its new ATH at 192,201. All five indices showed improved RSI readings, with four in bullish territory. The overnight ceasefire deterioration from the Lebanon escalation will test whether Wednesday’s gains can hold on Thursday. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the regional reaction to the ceasefire confirms the oil-sensitivity thesis — lower crude helps oil importers (Chile, Mexico) more than exporters (Colombia, Brazil’s energy sector).
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Oil had its biggest session in six years on Wednesday — then partially reversed overnight. WTI crashed 16.4% to $94.41/bbl (intraday low $91.11), its biggest daily drop since April 2020. Brent fell ~15% to $93.90. But after Iran re-closed the Strait following Israeli Lebanon strikes, WTI futures rose 2.8% to ~$97 after hours. The gap between the ceasefire narrative ($90 oil) and the physical reality (Strait still closed, only two tankers passed) is the key tension. Satellite data showed essentially no change in Strait traffic on Wednesday morning. Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis called the $95 level still “far above fair value.” If the ceasefire holds, WTI can trend toward $85-90 over weeks. If it collapses, $115+ is back immediately.
Gold fell 1.04% to $4,728, giving back the overnight gains as the full risk-on rotation left safe havens behind. The VIX collapse to 21.04 (−18.4%) confirmed the de-risking. The 10-Year yield at 4.291% (−0.052%) suggests the bond market is beginning to price in a less inflationary path. Today’s 30-Year auction at 13:00 tests whether the duration bid survives the ceasefire uncertainty.
USD/BRL made a significant move, crashing to R$5.10 from the chart data (O:5.1005, H:5.1005, L:5.1005, C:5.1005). RSI at 45.56 (MA: 37.98) shows the pair deep in oversold territory on the MA reading. The real is now at levels last seen in early 2024, reflecting the ceasefire relief, the 14.75% carry advantage, and elevated commodity exports. The MACD remains bearish (−0.0129, signal: −0.0155, MACD: −0.0284), confirming the downtrend in USD/BRL. If the ceasefire holds, R$5.00 is the next psychological target. If it collapses, R$5.25 is the rapid reversion level.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| The ceasefire’s core mechanism survives — Israel/Lebanon is a side dispute — The critical deal is between the U.S. and Iran, not Israel and Hezbollah. Trump needs this ceasefire politically. Pakistan is mediating actively. Iran has economic incentive to reopen Hormuz (toll revenue). The re-closure may be tactical posturing to force the U.S. to restrain Israel, not a permanent reversal. If Hormuz reopens by Friday, Wednesday’s rally extends.
The equity bottom is confirmed — Yardeni cut recession odds to 20%. JPMorgan declared the regime shift back to “Global Growth Reboot.” The S&P 500 reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Tech is leading again (Samsung +755% profit, Goldman upgraded the sector). The breadth expansion is healthy. The Ibovespa just hit ATH at 193,759. PCE coming in soft validates the cut path — If Core PCE meets or undercuts +0.4% MoM, the February data was collected before oil really spiked. The real test is March/April PCE. Meanwhile, wage growth at +3.5% is moderating. The combination of lower oil + easing wages + ceasefire = rate cuts back on the table globally. |
The ceasefire collapsed in under 24 hours — Iran re-closed Hormuz. Israel is bombing Lebanon. The UN is condemning the violence. The fundamental dispute — whether the ceasefire covers Hezbollah/Lebanon — was never resolved, just papered over. Pakistan says yes, Netanyahu says no. If this isn’t resolved by Friday, oil retests $110 and Wednesday’s entire rally reverses. The market priced in a deal that doesn’t exist.
Physical oil flows haven’t changed — Only two tankers passed through Hormuz before re-closure. Insurance premiums remain elevated. The pipeline connecting Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea was drone-struck. OECD inventories are at critical lows. Oil at $94 is a paper market response to headlines, not a physical supply reality. Rystad says prices are “far above fair value” — but the physical market says otherwise. Hot PCE kills the rate-cut revival — If Core PCE comes in at +0.4% or higher, the Fed cannot cut. Period. The March data won’t reflect the full oil spike, but February already showed persistence. The ISM Prices Paid at 78.3 from last week, tariffs hitting in April, and the war’s inflationary legacy all argue for sticky inflation. The stagflation setup — weakening labor market + persistent inflation + geopolitical uncertainty — is alive regardless of a two-week ceasefire. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
Wednesday was the market’s verdict on ceasefire value — and it was decisive. The Dow’s 1,325-point surge, the S&P’s best day in a year, the Ibovespa’s new ATH, the VIX’s 18% collapse — this is what the removal of war premium looks like. But the overnight news from Lebanon and Hormuz is a stark reminder: the premium was removed on a two-week deal that is already under stress, not on a permanent peace.
Thursday’s PCE data creates a second layer of complexity. The ceasefire repriced oil downward, which eventually reprices inflation expectations downward, which eventually reprices rate-cut expectations upward. But the PCE is backward-looking (February data), while the ceasefire is forward-looking. A hot PCE (+0.4%) reminds the market that inflation was building before the ceasefire and that the structural damage persists. A cool PCE (<0.3%) lets the market extend the ceasefire euphoria. The combination of ceasefire headlines and PCE data will determine whether Wednesday was the start of a sustained relief rally or a one-day wonder.
For the Ibovespa at a new all-time high of 192,201, the technical setup is bullish but RSI at 65.75 warns of near-term exhaustion. The ceasefire-led rally shifted the index’s sectoral dynamics: banks and rate-sensitive stocks should continue to benefit from the cut expectation revival, while Petrobras and energy face headwinds from $94 oil. The USD/BRL at R$5.10 is a remarkable level — the strongest since early 2024 — and reflects a virtuous combination of carry, commodities, and geopolitical relief. If the ceasefire holds, the Ibovespa’s path toward 195,000 is clear. If it fragments, the reversion toward 188,000 will be swift.
The critical variable remains the Strait. Not the headlines about the ceasefire, not the diplomatic language, not the mutual accusations — but the physical ships transiting the waterway. Until satellite data shows normalized traffic, the war premium has been suspended, not removed. Trade the data today, but keep one eye on the Strait.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.