Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Copom Ata Net Dovish · BRL Below R$4.91 · S&P 7,259 ATH · Nasdaq 25,326 ATH · Brent −4% to $110 · Hegseth: Ceasefire Holds · Micron +10% · JOLTS Steady · ADP Today · War Day 67

The Copom Ata Signals Continued Cuts Despite De-Anchored Expectations Through 2028

The ata released at 08:00 BRT on Tuesday revealed a committee that is simultaneously more confident in economic deceleration and more concerned about inflation expectations than the comunicado suggested, according to multiple analyst readings. Genial Investimentos’ senior economist Gabriel Pestana called the ata “net dovish relative to the comunicado,” citing the BCB’s conviction that the economy is on a consistent deceleration path and the assessment that the long period of restrictive rates has already produced effects. Genial maintains its forecast of 25bp cuts at every remaining 2026 meeting, targeting a 13.25% terminal Selic, per their research note.

Warren Investimentos took the opposite read, calling the ata “hawkish, harder than the comunicado” and noting it “prepares the environment for a revision of the current strategy,” according to their Tuesday report. The divergence in reads centers on one key passage: the ata acknowledges that inflation expectations have de-anchored through 2028 — a new and longer horizon than previously flagged — and states this “elevates the cost of disinflation over the level of activity, requiring greater monetary restriction for longer.” Suno Research concluded the cutting cycle “will be shorter than expected before the conflict,” per their analysis. The BCB’s reference scenario maintains IPCA at 4.6% for 2026 (above the 4.5% ceiling) and 3.5% for Q4 2027, using R$5.00/USD and the yellow tariff flag, according to the BCB’s published minutes.

The BRL Broke Below R$4.91 as the Carry Trade Deepened

The real’s surge to R$4.9087 on Tuesday is the most significant FX development since the USD/BRL structural break below R$5.00 on April 15. The move below R$4.91 represents a new multi-year dollar low — the weakest the greenback has been against the real since September 2022, per ICE exchange data. RSI at 34.99 (signal: 32.63) is deeply oversold in favor of the dollar, yet the BRL continues to strengthen, defying technical models. The carry trade at 14.50% Selic — the highest real rate in the EM complex — combined with R$68 billion in cumulative foreign inflows and Brazil’s net oil exporter status, creates a structural floor that has now held through $126 Brent, the ceasefire collapse, the Kijun break, and Focus IPCA at 5.0%. The question is whether R$4.90 represents a new equilibrium or an overshoot.

Market Snapshot AS OF TUE, MAY 5 CLOSE

As of Tuesday, May 5, 2026 close. Sources: B3, ICE, CNBC, BLS, BCB.

Ibovespa Reclaims 186,754 as the Ata and Oil Provide Dual Tailwinds

Tuesday: O:185,596.67, H:187,427.56, L:185,364.01, C:186,753.82 (+0.62%, +1,153.70), per B3 data. The Ibovespa recovered from Monday’s Iran-driven selloff (185,600) with a session-long rally that took the index within 444 points of the Kijun at 187,197. The intraday high of 187,427 briefly pierced the Kijun before the close pulled back. MACD: main line at 1,293.50, signal at −57.74, histogram at −1,351.24 per TradingView — the histogram has narrowed from −1,450 (Monday) to −1,351, the first compression in the cycle. RSI at 54.66, signal at 44.64 — the signal has climbed off the 41.83 panic low. The 10-point gap between main and signal is narrowing, suggesting the bearish momentum regime is transitioning to neutral.

Resistance: 186,754 (Tuesday close) → 187,197 (Kijun — KEY) → 187,428 (Tuesday high) → 188,626 → 189,668 → 198,658 (ATH).

Support: 185,364 (Tuesday low) → 185,600 (Monday close) → 184,504 (Apr 29 panic low) → 183,176 (cloud base) → 161,299 (200-day SMA).

Oil Fell 4% After Hegseth Said the Ceasefire “Certainly Holds”

Brent crude dropped 3.99% to $109.87 on Tuesday, according to CNBC, the sharpest single-day decline since the $126-to-$114 reversal last week. The catalyst was US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth telling reporters that the ceasefire with Iran “certainly holds” and that the world needs American leadership to secure Hormuz, according to the Wall Street Journal. Hegseth added the US “still hopes Iran will reach a deal.” This language marks a significant de-escalation from Monday’s Project Freedom rhetoric and the CENTCOM confirmation of destroying six Iranian boats. WTI fell 3.9% to $102.27. Brent is now trading near $105-106 in Wednesday pre-market, per Yahoo Finance futures data. For the Copom, every day Brent stays below $110 marginally improves the inflation pass-through math and keeps the June 17-18 cut on the table.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Set Fresh Records on Oil Relief and Earnings

The S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 7,259.22 and the Nasdaq gained 1.03% to 25,326.13 — both new all-time closing highs, according to CNBC. The Dow added 356 points (+0.73%) to 49,298.25, led by Caterpillar (+3.19%). Tech was the best S&P sector (+2%), followed by a rebounding materials sector (+2%), per TheStreet. Micron Technology surged 10% to surpass a $700 billion market cap after reports its high-bandwidth memory products are sold out through 2026. Intel gained 4% on reports it may produce processors for Apple. Pfizer rose 2.2% after beating Q1 earnings estimates ($14.45B revenue, +5% YoY), per CNBC. Pinterest jumped 15% on Q2 revenue guidance above consensus. On the negative side, Palantir fell 3% despite beating estimates, and Duolingo dropped 13% on user growth misses.

Wednesday’s Catalysts: ADP, European PMI Weakness, and EIA Inventories

European Services PMIs this morning carry consensus readings deep in contraction territory. The Eurozone composite consensus is 48.6 (prev 50.7), with Germany at 48.3 (prev 51.9) and France at 47.6 (prev 48.8), according to consensus estimates from Trading Economics. If the actuals print at or below consensus, the European recession risk narrative strengthens and ECB June hike probability may paradoxically decline despite elevated PPI. Eurozone PPI MoM consensus is +3.3% (from −0.7%), per Trading Economics — driven entirely by energy costs. This is the largest expected monthly PPI surge since the 2022 energy crisis.

ADP Nonfarm Employment at 13:15 ET (consensus 118K, prev 62K) previews Friday’s NFP. A strong ADP would reinforce the “too hot to cut” labor narrative, supporting the dollar and pressuring EM. A miss would be the first concrete US demand-weakness signal. Brazil Services PMI at 14:00 BRT (prev 50.1) will show whether the economy is decelerating as the ata suggested. EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 15:30 ET (cons −3.4M) is the week’s oil data event — a larger-than-expected draw would push Brent back toward $112. Fed’s Goolsbee speaks at 18:00 ET — his views on ISM Prices at 84.6 and the stagflation combo will be closely watched.

Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, MAY 6

Latin America Markets TUESDAY CLOSE

IPC Mexico: BMV closed May 5 (public holiday). Last close: 67,283.60 on May 4. Sources: B3, BVC, BCS, BYMA, TradingView.

Brazil led the regional tape on Tuesday as the ata-driven rally and the oil pullback provided dual catalysts. The Ibovespa’s +0.62% gain contrasted with continued weakness elsewhere: Chile’s IPSA slipped 0.24% to 10,691, the MERVAL fell 0.28% to 2.76M (now below its 200-day moving average at 2.58M from the TradingView chart), and Colombia’s COLCAP was essentially flat at 2,171.54. Mexico’s BMV was closed for a public holiday. The regional divergence confirms that Brazil’s domestic story — the carry trade, the dovish ata, and the BRL strength — is increasingly decoupled from the broader LatAm risk-off mood. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the oil-driven inflation pass-through hits non-oil LatAm economies harder than Brazil.

Commodities, FX, and Crypto

Oil: Brent at $109.87 (−3.99%, CNBC) and WTI at $102.27 (−3.9%) on Hegseth’s ceasefire assurance. Pre-market Wednesday: Brent near $105-106 (Yahoo Finance futures). Goldman raised Q4 Brent forecast to $90 but noted demand destruction of 3.6M bpd. EIA inventories today (cons −3.4M) are the next directional catalyst.

USD/BRL: R$4.9087 — new multi-year dollar low (ICE). RSI 34.99/32.63 (TradingView). MACD histogram at +0.0001. The real is now 1.8% below the R$5.00 level that held for three weeks. The carry trade at 14.50% Selic, combined with the dovish ata’s validation of continued cuts, attracts further inflows. The next support for the dollar is R$4.89 — the September 2022 low.

Bitcoin: $81,236 (+0.40%, Bitstamp). O:80,904, H:81,754, L:80,728. RSI 68.51/61.94 — the highest since late January (TradingView). MACD histogram at +184, firmly positive. BTC has held above $80K for two consecutive closes, confirming the breakout from the $72-78K range. Gold: ~$4,527 (−1.2%, Yahoo Finance) as rate-hike repricing continues to pressure non-yielding assets. The 10Y yield at 4.38%.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the Copom ata reveal about the June 17-18 meeting?

The Copom ata from the April 29 meeting showed a unanimous 25bp cut to 14.50% with no explicit June guidance. Genial Investimentos called it “net dovish” versus the comunicado, maintaining its forecast of 25bp cuts at every remaining 2026 meeting for a 13.25% terminal Selic. Warren Investimentos disagreed, calling the ata “hawkish” and noting it “prepares the environment for a strategy revision.” The BCB flagged de-anchored inflation expectations through 2028 as a key constraint, per the published minutes.

Why did the BRL strengthen to R$4.91?

The real surged to R$4.9087 on Tuesday, the strongest level since September 2022, driven by the dovish Copom ata, Brent’s 4% drop to $109.87, and continued carry trade inflows attracted by the 14.50% Selic rate. Brazil’s cumulative foreign inflows of approximately R$68 billion in 2026, combined with the country’s net oil exporter status, have provided structural support for the currency even through the $126 Brent spike and the ceasefire collapse.

When is the next major Brazilian economic data release?

The Brazil S&P Global Services PMI for April releases Wednesday, May 6, at 14:00 BRT (previous: 50.1). The next Focus survey is Monday, May 11. IPCA full-month for April is expected mid-May. The Copom’s next meeting is June 17-18. Markets will also watch Itaú Unibanco’s Q1 earnings call on Wednesday at 10:00 BRT, following the Tuesday after-close results release.

How does the Ibovespa’s correction compare to previous pullbacks in 2026?

The Ibovespa’s correction from the 198,658 all-time high (April 14) to the 184,504 panic low (April 29) was 14,154 points or 7.1%, the deepest pullback of 2026. The index has since recovered to 186,754 as of May 5, reclaiming 2,250 points (15.9% of the loss). The Kijun at 187,197 remains the key level to confirm a technical recovery. For comparison, the March 3 war-opening selloff was sharper intraday but found support faster.

What does a Brent price below $110 mean for Brazil’s inflation outlook?

Brent below $110 eases the oil pass-through pressure on Brazilian fuel prices and transport costs, the two largest contributors to recent IPCA acceleration. The BCB’s reference scenario uses approximately $80 Brent, so $110 still represents a $30 premium above baseline assumptions. Goldman Sachs estimates global demand destruction of 3.6 million barrels per day at current prices. Each sustained $10 decline in Brent removes roughly 15-20bp from the 12-month IPCA trajectory, according to BCB modeling frameworks.

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