This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of cryptocurrency markets and Latin American financial markets.
Bitcoin tumbled below $65,000 on Thursday in what analysts are calling the most severe crypto selloff since the FTX collapse of November 2022, erasing the entirety of gains accumulated since Donald Trump’s election victory.
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\nThe flagship cryptocurrency has now shed nearly half its value from October’s record high of $126,000, with more than $2 billion in leveraged positions liquidated this week alone as forced selling cascaded through an already fragile market.
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Key Market Data — February 6, 2026
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| Asset | Price (USD) | 24h Change | 7-Day Change | YTD Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $64,781 | -8.97% | -30% | -20% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,892 | -10.15% | -26% | -26% |
| Solana (SOL) | $78.82 | -13.24% | -35% | -40% |
| XRP | $1.29 | -9.94% | -19% | -16% |
| Total Crypto Market Cap | $2.49T | -6.4% | -25% | -$410B YTD |
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Performance Analysis
\nThursday’s carnage marks potentially one of the darkest days in Bitcoin’s history, with the flagship cryptocurrency posting its steepest single-day decline since FTX imploded in November 2022.
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\nThe selloff accelerated through U.S. trading hours as Bitcoin breached the psychologically critical $70,000 level that analysts had identified as key support, triggering a cascade of liquidations that pushed prices briefly below $61,000 in overnight Asia trading.
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\nThe broader digital asset ecosystem suffered proportionally greater losses. Ethereum tumbled below $1,900 for the first time since late 2024, while Solana cratered more than 13% as capital fled higher-beta altcoins.
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\nCryptoQuant’s latest analysis reveals institutional demand has reversed materially, with U.S. exchange-traded funds—which purchased 46,000 bitcoin during this period last year—now registering net outflows exceeding $544 million this week alone.
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\nTotal cryptocurrency market capitalization has contracted to approximately $2.49 trillion, representing a loss of roughly $410 billion since January 1.
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\nThe fear and greed index has plunged deep into “extreme fear” territory, contrasting sharply with the euphoria that characterized markets just four months ago when Bitcoin touched its all-time high.
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Key Drivers
\nThe confluence of macroeconomic and political headwinds has created what many analysts now characterize as a full-blown crypto winter.
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\nThe nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on January 30 sent shockwaves through risk assets, as markets priced in expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy stance.
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\nWarsh’s reputation as the most hawkish of Trump’s final candidates triggered immediate outflows from Bitcoin ETFs approaching $1 billion in a single day.
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\nGeopolitical uncertainty has compounded the selloff. President Trump’s escalating tariff threats against European nations over Greenland, combined with heightened tensions with Venezuela and Iran, have driven a broad risk-off rotation across global markets.
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\nSilver plunged 15% on Thursday—its worst day since 1980—while gold retreated more than 2% to $4,850, undermining the long-held narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
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\nThe correlation between crypto and risk assets like tech stocks has strengthened, with the Nasdaq-heavy software sector declining in lockstep with digital assets.
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\nStructural factors have amplified the downturn. Thin liquidity conditions have created an environment where even modest selling pressure triggers outsized price reactions and cascading liquidations.
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\nThe unwinding of leveraged basis trades by hedge funds—who entered crypto not out of conviction but to capture risk-free yield spreads—has removed a crucial source of demand from the market.
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Technical Outlook
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| Level Type | Bitcoin | Ethereum | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immediate Support | $60,000-$63,000 | $1,800 | Recent lows, psychological |
| Critical Support | $58,000 (200-Week MA) | $2,000 | Historical cycle bottom indicator |
| Bear Case Target | $38,000 | $1,500 | Stifel’s 70% drawdown scenario |
| Resistance | $70,000-$75,000 | $2,300-$2,500 | Prior support turned resistance |
\nThe 200-week moving average, currently situated around $58,000, represents what many consider the last line of defense for Bitcoin’s long-term bullish thesis.
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\nThis indicator has marked the price bottom in every previous major cycle—2015, 2019, and 2022—and coincides with the realized price, or average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders. A sustained break below this level would signal a structural breakdown unprecedented in Bitcoin’s history as a mature asset.
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\nThe weekly chart shows Bitcoin has dropped through the Ichimoku Cloud, a technical formation that historically precedes extended bear market phases.
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\nRSI readings have plunged to 17, approaching levels seen only during the 2018 bear market bottom and the March 2020 COVID crash, suggesting extreme oversold conditions that could precede a violent short-term bounce.
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Analyst Perspectives
\n”This is not a bull market correction or a dip. It is a full-bore, 2022-like, Leonardo-DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-style crypto winter,” wrote Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. “Set into motion by factors ranging from excess leverage to widespread profit-taking by OGs.”
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\nBarry Bannister, Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel, warned that Bitcoin could ultimately bottom around $38,000, representing a potential 70% decline from October highs.
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\n”This is hawkish cuts territory—ominous for bitcoin, which, similar to stocks in the Nasdaq 100, tends to move higher only with dovish policy,” Bannister noted in his research.
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Looking Ahead
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| Date | Event | Potential Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Jerome Powell’s Fed term ends | High — transition to Warsh leadership |
| June 2026 | Supreme Court tariff ruling expected | High — could invalidate Trump tariff authority |
| Q2 2026 | Potential Fed rate cuts | Medium — dependent on inflation trajectory |
| November 2026 | U.S. midterm elections | Medium — regulatory clarity implications |
\nHistorical data suggests crypto winters typically last approximately 13 months, which—if the current downturn began with October’s peak—could see conditions normalize by late 2026.
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\nHowever, the structural changes in Bitcoin’s investor base, with ETF-driven institutional flows now dominating price action, may alter the traditional cycle dynamics. For now, all eyes remain on the $58,000 level—the threshold that has saved every Bitcoin bull market since 2015.
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\nMarkets data as of February 6, 2026, 07:11 UTC via TradingView/Bitstamp. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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