Key Points
— Argentina posted a $2.29 billion current account surplus in Q4 2025, more than doubling the $903 million surplus from the same quarter in 2024 and reversing the $1.58 billion deficit of Q3
— The improvement was driven by a goods trade surplus of $6.28 billion in Q4, with exports rising 14.4% and imports up 10.2% year-on-year
— Full-year 2025 ended with a current account deficit of $7.58 billion (1.1% of GDP), but the goods balance posted a $15.36 billion surplus as exports grew 9.3% and imports surged 25.2%
The Argentina current account posted a $2.29 billion surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, more than doubling the $903 million surplus from the same quarter a year earlier and sharply reversing the $1.58 billion deficit recorded in the third quarter. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced the figures on social media, framing them as evidence that President Milei’s austerity program is producing sustainable macroeconomic results.
The swing was driven almost entirely by trade in goods. The merchandise surplus expanded from $4.92 billion in Q4 2024 to $6.28 billion in Q4 2025, as exports rose 14.4 percent year-on-year while imports grew a more moderate 10.2 percent. Agriculture, energy, and mining — the same sectors powering Argentina’s broader economic expansion — accounted for the bulk of export growth.
The Full-Year Argentina Current Account Picture
Despite the strong fourth quarter, Argentina closed 2025 with a full-year current account deficit of $7.58 billion, equivalent to 1.1 percent of GDP. The goods trade balance was solidly positive at $15.36 billion, with annual exports rising 9.3 percent. But imports surged 25.2 percent as the economy recovered from the deep contraction of early 2024, and the services and income balances remained in deficit.
Caputo said the results reflect “a dynamic consistent with macroeconomic order and the sustained expansion of activity — a necessary condition for generating quality employment.” The data also landed on the same day that Argentina won the reversal of the $16.1 billion YPF judgment, giving the Milei government a double dose of positive economic news.
What the Numbers Mean for Milei’s Model
The current account improvement supports the government’s argument that fiscal discipline and trade liberalization are repositioning Argentina’s external balance. But the composition raises familiar questions: the surplus is commodity-driven, dependent on agriculture and energy exports that generate limited employment, while the import surge reflects a recovering domestic economy that demands more foreign goods.
The central bank’s latest survey projects 3.4 percent GDP growth in 2026, but with inflation still running near 3 percent monthly — well above Milei’s sub-1 percent target — and unemployment at 7.5 percent, the gap between macro indicators and household reality remains the defining tension of Argentina’s recovery. The Q4 surplus is a real achievement, but whether it reflects structural improvement or a temporary commodity windfall will only become clear as metal and grain prices normalize.